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Thursday, January 31, 2008

FROZEN ASSETS


Does parity in the standings lead to parity in Stanley Cup odds?

In this week’s Tuesday Editorial, we questioned the value of seeding in the playoffs and concluded that the difference between the top seeds and bottom seeds is negligible. If the difference between the top and bottom seeds are negligible, the odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup should be relatively similar, especially two-thirds of the way into the season.



An examination of the best odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup reveals significant differences in odds between similarly situated teams. Why? Do the Rangers have enough time to turn around their season? Are the Ducks the third most likely team to win the Stanley Cup? Will the bottom fall out for the Habs and Bruins? Odds makers think so. Do you?

Here are the standings and best odds as of January 31, 2008. I have ordered the teams by conference and points-per game played. Note I will only include a price in a betting exchange if there is more than $10 available on the posted odds.

Eastern Conference


Team……........PPG…….…Best Odds......…Site....PPG Rank...Best Odds Rank

Ottawa…....…..1.33…………+600………Carib……..(2)….........(2)

Philadelphia......1.24…………+2200…….Betfair........(3)….........(8)

Montreal…...…1.24………….+3300….....Ladbrokes..(3)…........(12)

New Jersey...….1.18…………+2050….…Olympic.... (7)........….(5)

Pittsburgh……...1.18………...+2050….…
Olympic.....(7)….........(5)

Boston…………1.14…..…….+5500…..…Canbet......(11)…....…(16)

New York (I)….1.06………....+6600….....
Ladbrokes.(19)…........(17)

Buffalo………...1.04…..…….+7000….….
Betfair......(20)....……(20)

New York (R)…1.04……...….+3000….....Stan James(20).......... (11)

Carolina……….1.02…………+3343.....….Pinnacle....(22)...........(13)

Washington…...1.00…………+10000….…
Stan James(23)...........(23)

Atlanta………...0.98…..…….+6600……...
Stan James(24)...........(17)

Florida………....0.94………..+16000….....
Betfair......(27)...........(29)

Toronto…….0.92………….…+12500…....
Stan James(28)...........(25)

Tampa Bay…0.88……………+12500….....
Pinnacle..(29)...........(25)


Western Conference

Team….…....PPG……………..Best Odds……Site….PPG Rank…Best Odds Rank

Detroit……..1.54……………..+354…….....WSEX…..(1)………..(1)

San Jose….1.24………………+1415………
Olympic....(3)…….…(4)

Minnesota...1.20………………+2550….…..
Olympic....(6)…….....(9)

Calgary...…1.18………………+2550….…..
Olympic....(7)…….….(9)

Dallas…….1.17……………….+3345……...
Pinnacle..(10)………(13)

Colorado…1.14………………..+4000……...
Carib.......(11)…...….(15)

Vancouver..1.12………………+2050…..…..
Olympic...(13)……....(5)

Anaheim….1.11……………….+885….……
Olympic...(14)…….....(3)

Phoenix…..1.10……………….+12500……..
Ladbrokes(15)...........(25)

Nashville….1.08……………....+6600…..…..5dimes....(16)…....…(17)

Columbus...1.08……………….+9000….……
Betfair....(16)…........(22)

St. Louis…..1.08………………+7900…….....
Betfair.. (16)............(21)

Chicago……0.98………………+11000…...…
Betfair...(24)............(24)

Edmonton…0.96………………+12500………
Pinnacle(26)...........(25)

Los Angeles..0.83……………..+6000.………
Pinnacle(30)............(30)


Based on points per game and odds, Anaheim and Vancouver are overrated in the Western Conference, while the New York Rangers and the Hurricanes are overrated in the Eastern Conference. The best value in the Western Conference is on Phoenix, followed by Columbus and St. Louis. In the Eastern Conference Montreal is the best bet, followed by Philadelphia and Boston.

I hope you can use this information to generate a few cheap thrills, but remember my favorite expression: “You win some, you lose most.”

For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen


About the writer: Ari Baum-Cohen's first sports betting victory came at age 8 when he won his father's office pool. He screamed like a 14 year-old girl at a Lil' Bow Wow concert when Tampa Bay (had at +3500 to win Cup) and Calgary (had at +15000 to win Cup) made the Stanley Cup finals.

January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

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Rob Schremp Shootout Goal

Throughout the year Rob Schremp has contributed to Illegal Curve by giving readers an inside look at life in the AHL. Rob's fourth contribution to the site will be posted in the next day or two, but for now, just sit back and enjoy this goal that Rob scored at AHL All-Star Game over the weekend.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.


Thanks to HockeyTubeV1 for posting it on YouTube.

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NHL Morning Papers (Thursday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

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Wednesday, January 30, 2008

NHL Morning Papers (Wednesday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

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Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Tuesday Editorial: Does Seeding Even Matter?

With the NHL Playoffs less than three months away, the time has come to start seriously evaluating the playoff race. Prior to the NHL lockout, it was fairly easy to predict the majority of the teams that would qualify for the playoffs in the spring. Now, however, with parity becoming the new catch-word in the NHL, it has become almost impossible to predict who are the haves and have not’s going into the stretch drive of the season.

One needs to just take one look at the Western Conference standings to understand this phenomenon. Aside from the Detroit Red Wings, who are sitting atop the Western Conference at 78 points, seeds two through twelve in the conference are separated by a meagre ten points. Think about that for a second; only ten points separate a strong “playoff favourite” from a team that will be hitting the links in mid-April. With seeds two through eight (eight teams make the NHL playoffs in each conference) only separated by five points right now, if the playoffs were to start today, would any match-up constitute an upset? The only team that, in reality, could be upset is the Detroit Red Wings. While the Red Wings have had their fair share of playoff success over the years, they have also had their fair share of disappointments; an upset of this year’s version of the Red Wings wouldn’t be all that shocking.

If you thought the Western Conference was close, the Eastern Conference is separated from seeds one through eight by a total of twelve points. In fact, if the Southeast Division teams continue their embarrassing seasons to date, it appears one team in the Eastern Conference will be left out of the playoff with more points than the three seed (each division winner is guaranteed a spot in the top three of the conference). Aside from the Ottawa Senators, who are actually coming back to the pack, the conference is extremely close. In fact, only five points separate seeds two through eights. Again, this may sound repetitive but, is seed two really any better than seed eight? Not likely. Further, if seeds nine (New York Rangers) and ten (Washington Capitals) miss the eighth seed of the playoffs by a point or two, and the fifth seed by five or six points, are they that much worse than a “favourite” in their conference. I think not; in fact, the playoff team may have gotten an extra bounce or two over the course of the season and that becomes the difference between a successful and disappointing season for the organization and its fan base. It really is such a fine-line.

With all playoff teams so close together in the standings, does seeding really matter? If the third seed has two more points during an 82 game schedule than the sixth seed, does that make the third seed a better team? It most likely does not. Never mind the inception of the shootout, which taints point totals that “teams accumulate” because it really is an individual competition, that is, of course, gone come playoff time. Many readers may be thinking, “But c’mon these teams get home-ice advantage.” While that point is true, how important is a one game home-ice advantage in a seven-game series, in which the teams facing each other are basically equal? It is somewhat important, but that’s only if the series is extended to seven games, and that didn’t happen all that much in the 2007 playoffs. All in all, when two teams face-off in this fall’s playoffs and you hear the word “favourite” being used, take a second to really consider if that “favourite” is really any better than their opponent.

For Illegal Curve, I’m Richard Pollock.

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Numbers Game: Goal Differential

We have just passed the half-way point in the NHL season. With the all-star game over, GM's will be spending the next few weeks assessing their team's chance of succeeding in the playoffs and deciding whether they are buyers or sellers at the fast approaching deadline.

One indicator of success is a team's goal differential. In the Western Conference, the Ducks and the Avs are the only playoff teams that have scored fewer goals than they have allowed. But their -.02 differential will almost certainly become positive. Selanne, a 40 goal scorer last year, announced yesterday that he will be returning this season and his $600,000 salary will allow Burke to make some last minute additions at the deadline. The Avs have been hampered by injuries, but as soon as Stasny and Sakic return they will receive some much welcomed and needed offensive contributions.

The only non-playoff teams in the Western conference with a positive goal differential, the Blue Jackets and the Predators, sit within a point of the 8th place Avalanche.

In the East, it is much the same story. The Bruins and the Islanders are the only playoff teams that allow more goals than they score, while the Sabres are the only non-playoff team with a positive goal differential. The fact that the Lightning have the third worst goal differential in the league despite having two of the league's top 10 scorers in Lecavelier and St. Louis speaks to the problems they have been having in net this year.




For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

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NHL Morning Papers (Tuesday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

The Western Conference morning papers are soon to follow...

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

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Monday, January 28, 2008

The HD Corner - 2008 All-Star Game

CBC’s coverage of this year’s All-Star game included Jim Hughson doing the play-by-play, with Craig Simpson and Greg Millen crammed into the booth. As usual, Hughson called a flawless game, Simpson provided some insight, and Millen was more annoying than a Carrot Top stand-up routine. There was an increase of in-booth banter due to the friendly nature of the game as expected; however, the folks at Versus seemed to have taken this to a new level. As much criticism as Versus receives for its lack of viewers, they deserve credit for usually providing entertaining broadcasts for their target – something that CBC has been criticized for in the past. Specifically, at one point of the All-Star game telecast, Gary Bettman was invited into the booth and was joking with Blues goalie Manny Legace about large goalie equipment while he was in the process of playing. CBC can learn a thing or two, and ease up on the boring Mike Babcock interview next time around.

Unfortunately my HD-PVR let me down and I was unable to watch the Skills Competition live (according to Illegal Curve’s Cold Hard Rant section, I didn’t miss much). Needless to say I was still able to watch most of it on CBC.ca’s streaming video section, which I highly recommend to anyone wanting to see the incredible Obstacle Course Relay that closely resembled the 1980’s board game Mouse Trap (click here for a trip down memory lane).

Now on to some other random All-Star game thoughts…

Was there anything more awkward then the Elliote Friedman and Samantha Micelli - I mean Alyssa Milano - interview. Wow Alyssa, you have a new NHL clothing line? Will it be available at Stitches, Winners, or Giant Tiger? These are things that I need to know. Speaking of Who’s the Boss, did anyone know that little Jonathan has come out of the closet? The only thing less predictable was Tony Danza’s career going into a downward spiral after playing a male housekeeper for eight years (not that there’s anything wrong with that).

So you’re telling me that Boston Bruins goalie Tim Thomas is an all-star? What, was Jim Carey not available? It’s important to note that Thomas’ goalie coach on the Bruins is non other than Bob Essensa. Yes, a goalie with the nickname “Flipper” has trained and produced an all-star calibre goalie. Further, the same man who once traded Teemu Selanne for Chad Kilger and Oleg Tverdovsky is the head coach of the Eastern Conference All-Stars. Next I’ll find out that Doug Smail is Alex Ovechkin’s power skating coach.

All-Star game MVP? Forget Eric Staal, what about The Hives? Past All-Star Game bands have included the Barenaked Ladies, The Trews, and probably The Harlots, so The Hives were quite the pleasant surprise. The only disappointing fact was that they didn’t play during the 2nd intermission. Instead, we were treated to the funky beats of “Ne-Yo” (whoever that is). Wow they sure now how to party south of the Dixie line!

Although this year’s All-Star Game wasn’t the most entertaining, it did conclude in dramatic fashion and featured an interesting subplot with Sharks goalie Evgeni Nabokov and fan favourite Ilya Kovalchuk of the Thrashers. Click here to see a clip of a few Nabokov-Kovalchuk highlights.

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Breaking News: Teemu Selanne returns to Ducks

TSN is reporting that the Ducks have agreed to a 1 year, $1.5 million contract with Teemu Selanne.

Instant Analysis: The Ducks have few, if any, holes on their roster now that Selanne has agreed to return. While he may miss his former centerman Andy McDonald, the sniper is a terrific addition for a team that can use some extra scoring. It is official--the Ducks are stacked.

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Fantasy Watch: Scouring the Waiver Wire

D Braydon Coburn, Philadelphia Flyers
Coburn didn't make much noise throughout the first half of the season, but managed to head into the all-star break riding a four game point streak. The former Atlanta Thrasher currently has 22 points on the year, making him Philly's second leading scorer on defense. Receiving time on the power-play, Coburn has made the most of his opportunity notching three pp assists in January. Entering the second half of the season, Coburn will be looking to extended his point streak and play a larger role in Philadelphia's offense.
Fantasy Take: Coburn has been very inconsistent all year but has heated up over the the last four games and may be worth a flier for those in need of a lower-end option at defense.

F Chuck Kobasew, Boston Bruins
In his first full year with Boston Kobasew is off to his best start as a pro, scoring 17 goals and 26 points in 49 games. The forward has benefited from playing with all-star centerman Marc Savard and is giving the Bruins a capable goal scorer they so desperately need. Leading the team with 17 goals, Kobasew has also been productive on the powerplay, scoring five pp goals to go along with four assists. Look for Kobasew to break his previous career high in points and goals in the next few weeks.
Fantasy Take: Kobasew has been a shaky play but is currently heating up, scoring five points in his last four games. Before making a claim for the forward, watch how he performs post all-star break to see if he can continue to be a regular on the score sheet.

F Martin Gelinas, Nashville Predators
Gelinas has come alive this January, scoring half of his points in this month alone. Appearing in 44 games for the Preds, Gelinas has totaled eight goals and 18 points on the year. Enjoying his best game of the season earlier this week, Gelinas scored two goals and added one assist while playing over 16 minutes. Although Gelinas had a rough season up until January, the forward has shown that he can still score in this league and may even be a decent fantasy option in deeper leagues.
Fantasy Take: Gelinas enjoyed a great month, scoring three goals and six assists. Keep an eye on him post all-star break to see if he continues with this pace, or returns to scoreless ways.

D Ryan Suter, Nasville Predators
Suter has been Nashville's second most productive defenseman, scoring five goals and 21 points. He is currently riding a four game point streak, scoring four points during that span while averaging around 15 minutes of ice time. Although he has failed to pick up power-play points (Suter has only two pp assists this month), the defenseman is still young and continuing to progress as a player. Increasing his point total in each of the first two seasons, Suter is a lock to surpass his 24 points he put up last year and could finish with around 35+ points if he continues to play well.
Fantasy Take: Although Suter may not help your fantasy team this year, he is a good defenseman to look at in keeper leagues. In only his third year in the league, Suter continues to improve as a player and will only get better as the years go on.


For Illegal Curve, I'm Jonny Remis

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NHL Morning Papers (Monday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

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Sunday, January 27, 2008

THE AHL REPORT

The AHL Report is the newest section to be added to the family of Illegal Curve feature articles, appearing each and every Sunday at your favourite hockey blog. Although the report will explore a wide range of topics, a special emphasis will be placed on developing prospects and NHL call-ups.

The American Hockey League is often referred to as a second-tier professional hockey league, an inferior brand of bush-league bandy composed of NHL rejects who couldn't cut it in the best league in the world. This misguided public view couldn't be more fallacious as the AHL boasts a cornucopia of top prospects, talented veterans and world class goaltenders.

Upon recently attending a Manitoba Moose/Syracuse Crunch game on Friday at the MTS Centre in Winnipeg, I counted at least six 1st round NHL picks from the past three entry drafts, many of whom will play huge roles in the NHL next year (Michael Grabner, Luc Bourdon, Cory Schneider, Gilbert Brule, Alexandre Picard and Derick Brassard). Juraj Simek, a 20-year-old winger from Slovakia, scored a picturesque dipsy-doodle goal that would give Rick Nash a run for his highlight reel money. Duvie Westcott, Zenon Konopka, Jason Jaffray and Mike Brown are all players who have contributed to their parent clubs this season. Aside from following your teams NHL call-ups, their are many AHL regulars who have excelled enough to capivate your attention. Unsung heroes like Brad Moran, Rick Rypien and Colby Genoway are all good players with exceptional hockey talent.

In a 3-1 Manitoba Moose victory which featured three fights, the arena was packed and engaged, and the on-ice action was intense and compelling. Given that many of these prospects will only spend one or two years "on the farm", it is evident why fans find it difficult to become too attached to players who won't be playing in the AHL for very long. However, this does not mean that the quality of hockey should be undervalued. Over the past three of four years, players such as Jason Spezza, Zach Parise, Travis Zajac, Brad Boyes, Patrick Sharp, Mike Cammalleri and Joe Pavelski have lit up the lamp in the 'A' along the way to the NHL.

The naysayers of the AHL like to point out that franchises relocate all the time, creating an unstable environment with dire consequences. This is simply the reality of a league which doesn't have the guaranteed revenue streams to save all of their clubs. Teams in towns like Adirondack and Utica are forced to fold when ticket and merchandise sales slide too much in relation to inflating player costs. To the AHL's credit, it still boasts 30 teams and manages to attract ownership interest whenever one of their franchises is on the brink of collapse. Had enough Omaha Ak-Sar-Ben Knights? Enter Quad City or Rockford. Anyways, it isn't like the National Hockey League doesn't have ownership issues itself (Ahem! Nashville? Tampa Bay?).

The fact of the matter is people will always write-off the American Hockey League for vacuous reasons. Viewers of AHL Hockey, including this weekend's 2008 AHL All-Star Classic festivities, know better.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Ezra Ginsburg.

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Cold Hard Rants--An All-Star Debacle

Coming to you live, once again, from the “Centre of the Universe”, Toronto Ontario, is another action-packed, exciting and dynamic, edition of Cold Hard Rants. Unfortunately, for the NHL those three words certainly could not be used in an honest manner to describe yesterday’s NHL Skills Competition as part of the NHL All-Star Weekend “extravaganza.”

Fresh off the un-mitigated disaster that was last year’s all-star weekend the NHL, to their credit, realized that the weekend needed a revamping. Unfortunately, as has become commonplace in Gary Bettman’s NHL, the purported cure was as bad as the disease, and the skills competition portion of the revamped weekend fell flatter than the terrain in Saskatchewan. (Note, I will not comment about the fact that the All-Star game was played in Atlanta, as I am not sure if the people at the event were knowledgeable enough about hockey to realize that what they were watching was in-fact a skills competition and not in actuality how all NHL games are played……hockey in the deep south, FEEL THE EXCITEMENT!)

A group of athletes who’s best selling features is their combination of size, and speed, were reduced to embarrassing themselves in ridiculous competitions like who could shoot a puck into a miniature net, and what goalie can shoot pucks the length of the ice into an empty net. The only thing the night was missing was a dog running through an obstacle course (which, by the way, I would have rather watched). As a viewer at home, the whole debacle was cringe worthy. I was half expecting the entire event to be sponsored by “Bad Idea Jeans.” (™ SNL).

Of course, just when I thought this had reached the pinnacle of debacle, the speed skating competition took the whole thing to a new level. On it’s face there is nothing wrong with a timed event to see who can skate the fastest from goal-line to blue-line, but when the freakin timers don’t work, what’s the point? The NHL couldn’t have asked to borrow a TIMEX from someone in the crowd? As I was watching at home, and saw Brian Campbell come out for the “finals” I was incredulous, as it was apparent to everyone that Campbell had LOST his heat. I don’t need a timer to tell me he lost, I saw it with my own eyes! To say that this was amateur hour is an insult to anyone who has ever been an amateur athlete. There aren’t enough adjectives in the English language for me to use to blast the NHL for how pathetic this was. Instead of it being a platform to highlight the tremendous athletes that play in the NHL, all it did was re-enforce how incompetent the Bettman era has been. Something the NHL has been all too skillful at showing the public time after time after time.

For Illegal Curve, I am Andrew M.

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Saturday, January 26, 2008

NHL SuperSkills Live Blog

Welcome to the 2008 NHL SuperSkills Live blog, This event will showcase the super skills of all the NHL All Stars, except for the ones who injured (Sidney Crosby, Henrik Zetterberg), or with their families (Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo). Illegal Curve was able to obtain some press credentials for this event and I am writing live from the press box at Phillips Arena my basement watching on CBC HD. I am looking forward to tonights festivities. If you are not aware of tonights events, and rules, they are available here.

In order: Obstacle Course Relay, Fastest Skater, Elimination Shootout, YoungStars Game, Accuracy Shooting, Hardest Shot, Breakaway Challenge.

I will be updating this throughout the competition, timestamped (Central time) with the most recent entry at the top.

8:22pm: The competition is over, it was a bit of a snoozer at times, but some players were able to showcase their talent. Ovechkin was the superstar of the night, receiving the biggest ovation. Tomorrow is the All-Star game, for all you fans of Frozen Assets, the over/under is 16. Out.

8:18pm: Alex Ovechkin tries to spin-o-rama and then baseball bat the puck into the net and gets a loud ovation. Somewhere Sidney Crosby is sitting at home crying.

8:09pm: The balding (who knew?) 22 year old Ryan Getzlaf shows two of the nicer moves so far. This event is showing so far to be a bit of a bust, with goalies making the saves and poke checking. I wouldn't mind seeing a shooter tutor or Mr. Sieve.

8:04pm: The moment everyone has been waiting for, the shootout challenge. Atlanta Hawk Dominique Wilkins, Scot Mellanby, Bill Clement and some guy from Friday Night Lights are judges.

7:42pm: Kaberle hits the target in sudden death, all the players celebrate. Greg Millen says "you don't think these guys compete". Settle down Greg.

7:14pm: Manny Legace makes a beauty breakaway pass to Patty Kane for a goal. Maybe I spoke too soon.

7:12pm: If the players don't really care, should I be interested?

7:01pm: The YoungStars were just introduced, what a bunch of babyfaces, several of them look like they just had their bar-mitzvahs.

6:53pm: Dion Phaneuf, who knew he could deke like this? He wins the elimination shootout.

6:45pm: CBC has chosen to put a person skating with a camera behind the shootout shooters, it's giving me a headache. Excuse me while I go throw up.

6:42pm: Jim Hughson explains that Brian Campbell's time was the only one that registered for the East, so he was put in the final. Wow. Who is running this thing?

6:36pm: After much confusion, Brian Campbell and Shawn Horcoff face-off in fastest skater. CBC shows the time as 0.00 seconds. Someone explain to me what is going on here. I would have preferred the traditional fastest skater, and compare to former all stars such as Petr Bondra and Mike Gartner. I really had no idea what was going on there.

6:27pm: Evegni Malkin just screwed up on the stickhanlding. If Nelson Muntz was here he'd say Ha Ha!

6:25pm: If the first time wasn't exciting enough, they are doing this course again. Alright!

6:20pm: Obstacle course relay, this is new. Great hands displayed by Spezza and Henrik Sedin. This is a nice change from guys skating through pylons.

6:17pm: Sidney Crosby wasn't available to play in the competition tonight, but he is featured playing with children in Tim Hortons commercials. What a role model.

6:07pm: Here's the most exciting part of the night, the player introductions. Is it just me, or does Mike Ribero look like a starving fetus?

6:00pm: I just got back from dominating the cowbell, lets get this thing started.

5:00pm: I have gone to practice with my
Rock Band, Estimated Tongue. I am quite the shredder on lead guitar (Medium Difficulty), I'll be back around 5:45 with updates.

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Friday, January 25, 2008

Fantasy Watch: Goalie Starts

Jan 28th – Feb 3rd

Anaheim Ducks (3) – Giguere should be well rested for back-to-back games this week.

Atlanta Thrashers (3) – Hedberg may steal a start due to back-to-back games.

Boston Bruins (3) – Look for Thomas to start all three games this week.

Buffalo Sabres (3) – Miller should be ready to go for all three games.

Carolina Hurricanes (3) – Ward will be looking to get back on track after the all-star break.

Calgary Flames (2) – Kiprusoff will get a much needed rest and should be back between the pipes for both games this week.

Chicago Blackhawks (2) – The Blackhawks haven't fully given Lalime the starting job, but if Khabibulin keeps struggling expect him to be out of the picture sooner than later.

Columbus Blue Jackets (3) – Leclaire has been stellar all year and should start all three games this week.

Colorado Avalanche (3) – Theodore recently took over the #1 position and should continue to hold onto it after the all-star break.

Dallas Stars (3) – Smith may steal a start due to back-to-back games this week.

Detroit Red Wings (3) – Look for a split between Osgood and Hasek.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Garon should get both starts this week.

Florida Panthers (3) – Expect Vokoun to start all three games this week.

Los Angeles Kings (3) – LaBarbera hasn't been great but is still the starter in L.A.

Minnesota Wild (2) – Backstrom should get both starts this week.

Montreal Canadiens (4) – Huet will have a busy week with four games on the schedule.

Nashville Predators (3) – Look for Ellis to steal a start this week.

New Jersey Devils (3) – Brodeur will be busy during all-star week but should be ready to go for all three games this week.

New York Islanders (3) – Expect DiPietro to receive all the starts this week.

New York Rangers (4) – Lundqvist should be well rested for four games this week.

Ottawa Senators (3) – Gerber and Emery have both struggled as of late and will be looking to regain their early season form.

Philadelphia Flyers (3) – Nittymaki has been playing well this month and should steal a start this week.

Phoenix Coyotes (3) – Newly resigned Bryzgalov should receive all three starts this week.

Pittsburgh Penguins (3) – Conklin and Sabourin will continue to receive the starts while Fleury remains on the IR.

San Jose Sharks (3) – Nabokov has started all but one game for San Jose and should be ready to go post all-star break.

St. Louis Blues (3) – Legace struggled to close out the first half, but will be looking to get back on track after the break.

Tampa Bay Lightining (3) – Holmqvist will be looking to continue his hot-streak post all-star break.

Toronto Maple Leafs (3) – Toskala has won four of his last five games and should start all three games this week.

Vancouver Canucks (3) – After skipping the all-star game, Luongo should be ready to go for all three games this week.

Washington Capitals (3) – Look for Kolzig to start all three games this week.


For Illegal Curve, I'm Jonny Remis

Ballhype: hype it up!

NHL Morning Papers (Friday Edition)

Note: With All-Star weekend upon us, I will not be posting on Saturday or Sunday. The usual NHL Morning Papers will return bright and early Monday morning.

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

The Western Conference morning papers were lost to a computer problem. Thank you Microsoft Vista! I apologize for this omission. The regular format will return on Monday.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Numbers Game: Maple Leafs Winning %

The Toronto Maple Leafs have hardly been in the news these days. It seems as though the hockey media has forgotten about them, so I have decided to write yet another Numbers Game on the beloved Leafs. In all seriousness, I recognize that this is the third consecutive Numbers Game article on the Leafs and I have promised Illegal Curve’s editor, Richard Pollock, that this will be the last for a while.

In today’s Numbers Game, I decided to look at a relatively meaningless stat; the winning percentage of the Maple Leafs when each player on the Leafs scores. It’s even more meaningless for a Leaf’s team that is near the bottom of the NHL in wins.



But did you know that the Leafs never lose when Wade Belak scores? Perfect, Maurice can stop his search for a winger to fill in for Ponikarovski on one of the top lines. #23 out, #3 in. That’s right, the same #3 that stars on Leaf’s TV’s “Wade a Minute”. Belak’s versatility is clearly underrated.

Unfortunately for the Leafs, Belak has only scored one goal. The Leafs, however, do have an impressive .750 winning percentage with Alex Steen scores (he has 10 goals on the year). 8 of Stajan’s 11 goals were scored in Leafs’ victories, while 5 of Tucker’s unimpressive season total of 6 goals were scored in losses. Never mind Sundin, it’s time to start the “trade Tucker” campaign. The Leafs just can’t seem to win when he scores. It appears that Tucker might not be doing such a disservice after all: it’s a good a thing he never scores!

What about Sundin who has been the subject of many trade rumours? The Leafs lose half the games that he scores in.

I would not focus on these stats at all. They really don’t mean anything. No one is going to suggest that Tucker shouldn’t score, as easy as that would be for him. Obviously, the more goals your team scores, the more likely you are to win. The issue is not really who is scoring and when, but rather who is not scoring enough. The Leafs brought in Jason Blake, a 40-goal scorer last year, to help ignite the offense. He currently sits at 9 goals on the year. Darcy Tucker scored an impressive 24 goals in 56 games last year and a career-high 28 goals in 2005-2006. After 42 games this season, he has 6 goals. If the Leafs want to turn around their season, then everyone has to step up, especially Tucker and Blake.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

Ballhype: hype it up!

NHL Morning Papers (Thursday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

News You Can Use Late in the Day


1. The IIHF will go to a 4-official system at the World Championships.
2. The Flames and h ave assigned Eric Nystrom to the AHL and Patrice Bergeron has returned from vacationing in Aruba.
3. Doug Gilmour said to be confused over his role with the Leafs. Also confusing Gilmour, the statutory age of consent.
4. Blah, blah, blah, blah, Leafs, blah, blah, blah.
5. The St. John's Fog Devils will relocate to Quebec.
6. Tom Glavine still wonders if he could have made it in the NHL.
7. Something about a Wang that enjoys growing...
8. Magnus Wernblom is closing in on the scoring record in the SEL.
9. This year's CHL Prospects game will be defense heavy.
10. A primer on how to coach an All-Star Game.
11. Spector says that Hossa might stay in Atlanta now that the playoffs are a possibility.
12. Interesting take on the lack of action in getting more NHL teams in Canada.
13. A pretty hilarious photoshop contest over at Pensblog. The Flyers are the natural target.
14. A story on the Gamebreaker video system from the Prince George Citizen.
15. My least favourite hockey analyst and least favourite newspaper have joined forces to create a plethora of suck.
16. Worst hockey mom ever. Note to all the studly 16 year old hockey players out there: If your next conquest could be mistaken for your hockey bag, don't hit it.
17. John Ferguson Jr. ponders his future. If he just waits a few years the Leafs will hire him back.
18. Dave Feschuk of the Toronto Star tells us the goal of Leafs' Nation is to find their "Bryan Colangelo". No wonder they can't play hockey. Too many scouts looking for 6'8 guards and mobile swingmen.
19. A faction of the Edmonton Investors' Group is attempting to match Daryl Katz' offer. Smells like a bidding war to me.
20. Not sure why this story is getting so much attention, but the Pens Tyler Kennedy is out with mono.
21. The final instaalment of the Staal brothers will take the ice at the CHL Prospects game tonight.
22. Jyri Niemi of the Saskatoon Blades won the hardest shot competition at the CHL Prospects game with a 97 mph blast.
23. The Hockey News, apparently addled from being in Toronto for too long, attempts to give the Cy Young Award to 10 NHL'ers.
24. Catching up with Gilbert Dionne.
25. Mike Milbury has his own blog. I am going to see if I can acquire it from him for a blog to be named later.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Fantasy Watch: Buy/Sell

BUY

F Patrick Marleau, San Jose Sharks
Marleau has been awful this year, but appears to be turning a corner in the New Year, scoring in four of his last five games. He has also been producing on San Jose's power-play unit, registering four assists in his last five games. Although this could just be a tease, a player with Marleau's talent is worth to take a gamble on. You don't lose the ability to become an 80 point player in the NHL overnight, and even though Marleau won't put up anything close the 78 points he did last year, the forward could still be in for a pleasant second half.

F Cory Stillman, Carolina Hurricanes
Stillman started the season on fire, scoring 31 points in his first 23 games but has struggled to keep up that astonishing pace and is currently enduring his worst month of the season. With only two points in his last eight games, Stillman's value has plummeted and may be in the trading block in your league. His recent scoring slump does bring a cause for concern, but with a potent Carolina lineup featuring three other 40+ point players, Stillman's slump should end in no time. If you can get Stillman for below market value, then do so now as he could heat up at any moment.

SELL

F Todd Bertuzzi, Anaheim Ducks
After enduring two unsuccessful stints with both Florida and Detroit, no one was sure how Bertuzzi would perform in his first year with the Ducks. Scoring only two points in his first seven games with Anaheim, Bertuzzi's miserable start was put to an end early after suffering yet another concussion. Unsure if Bertuzzi would ever step foot back on the ice, owners acted quickly and dropped the forward in favor of other options. Returning over a month later, Bertuzzi got off to another slow start but has since picked it up, scoring 13 points in his last 10 games. Due to his rugged style of play, Bertuzzi puts himself at an extreme risk of another serious injury that could end his season prematurely. With his value as high as it might be all season, it's advised to ship Bertuzzi off for other options.

F Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Minnesota Wild
Bouchard has been extremely streaky this year, often going several games without registering a point only to bounce back and post the odd multi point game, making owners shrug off his inconsistency.
After scoring only three points in his last seven games, Bouchard bounced back and posted his first four point night, much to the dismay of owners who probably had him on their bench after his awful week beforehand. My advice? Trade Bouchard to another team, avoid his scoreless nights and the headaches that come with debating whether or not to start him for the week.


For Illegal Curve, I'm Jonny Remis

Ballhype: hype it up!

NHL Morning Papers (Wednesday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Numbers Game: Ferguson by the numbers

Hats off to Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment for finally recognizing that they made a huge mistake by bringing in John Ferguson Jr. to “run the show” for the Leafs. I use the term “run the show” very loosely of course. Ferguson was merely a puppet for the MLSE board which is compromised of prominent real estate developers, lawyers and pension fund directors who in addition to being extremely successful businessmen also possess brilliant hockey minds?

With Ferguson fired, the Leafs have handed the GM position to former Leafs’ GM Cliff Fletcher accompanied by a promise by the MLSE board to give him full control over the hockey operations. This model has certainly worked well for the Raptors and under the guidance of a hockey version of Bryan Colangelo, it will certainly serve the best interests of the Leafs. However, the question remains: Is Fletcher the right guy for the job?

Fletcher has certainly demonstrated the willingness to pull off the big trade and the foresight to recognize the potential contributions of players. He was responsible for bringing Doug Gilmour and Mats Sundin to Toronto. He will have to utilize the same foresight and willingness in the next month when he is faced with the pressure to, ironically, trade Sundin.

In response to today’s firing, I looked at the success of the Leafs under their last 4 general managers dating back to when Fletcher took over in 1991. The list includes:
Cliff Fletcher (1991-1997)
Ken Dryden (1997-1999)
Pat Quinn (1999-2003)
John Ferguson Jr. (2003-2008)

For the analysis, I recognize that team points are now scored differently than they were in the 90’s. Since 1999, teams received a point for losing a game in overtime and, of course, shootouts were brought into the game to break ties in 2005. As well, the league has expanded since the early 90’s from a 22-team league to the 30-team league that we have today.


Click on image to enlarge:



The Leafs were most successful under Pat Quinn. They enjoyed their highest winning percentage (.589) and on, average, ranked 5th in the conference and 2nd in their division, while qualifying for the playoffs every season. Quinn’s teams also consistently ranked in the top 10 in the league in goals scored and were above the league average in goals against. They narrowly missed the Stanley Cup finals losing to the Hurricanes in 2001 and were generally regarded as contenders in the East every season.

Conversely, under Ferguson, the Leafs have failed to qualify for the playoffs since the lockout and are likely going to fall short again this year. They did tally 103 points in his first season (2003), but how much of that can be attributed to Ferguson instead of Quinn, his predecessor? Since the lockout the Leafs have ranked, on average, 10th in the East and 4th in their 5-team division.

Ironically, Fletcher did have a lower winning % than Ferguson. However, the Leafs in the mid 90’s, when Gilmour was in his prime, were a much better team than now, and they would have arguably had a much higher winning percentage should the shootout have been in place. As well, the Leafs almost reached 100 points in 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 en route to conference finals appearances without receiving points for overtime losses. For 4 consecutive seasons starting in 1992, the Leafs finished at worst 5th in their conference.

Under Fletcher, the Leafs appeared to have difficulty scoring, finishing, at best, 13th in the league in goals for. However, the Leafs did rank above league average in goals against during Fletcher’s tenure with the exception of his final season. In the last 2 seasons, the Leafs have finished 21st and 25th overall in goals against and currently have the 4th worst goals against to date.

Ferguson had his chance with the Leafs. His track record certainly supports MLSE’s decision to fire him today. Whether Fletcher was the right guy remains to be seen. Granted, while he will only retain the GM title until the end of the season, what Fletcher does in the next few months will certainly go a long way in molding the Leafs potential success over the next few years. Here is to hoping that they don’t continue along the path that Ferguson has currently steered them on.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

Ballhype: hype it up!

News You Can Use Late in the Day

1. Kalamazoo wins a game in the IHL when they score with 0.1 seconds left on the clock. Big deal. I can score and cuddle in 0.1 seconds.
2. A decision is expected today on the fate of John Ferguson Jr. Update: JFJ fired.
3. Hockey Hearsay reports that Ottawa almost made a trade. Big news day in Ottawa. I almost won the lottery, too.
4. The weekly release from the USHL.
5. Evanka Osmak of Sportsnet does some deep thinking on the All-Star Game. Save yourself the trouble and instead spend 30 seconds checking out her pictures.
6. Just like Regina girls, this guy loves the wood.
7. The Coyotes have inked Ilya "The Human Alphabet" Bryzgalov to a 3 year extension.
8. Evgeni Malkin will replace Sidney Crosby at the All-Star Game in Atlanta.
9. In an effort to make up for yesterday's worst fight ever, please enjoy this goalie fight featuring Illegal Curve favorite, David Reekie. The video is shakier than bigfoot footage, but you get the idea.
10. This week's ECHL update looks at Peder Skinner of the Phoenix Roadrunners. I think Peder Skinner ranks right up there with Corey Pecker as worst hockey name.
11. The Junior Report says that Belleville is the team to beat in the OHL and notes that David Reekie has helped turn around Lincoln's season in the USHL.
12. Cherie Piper has rejoined the Canadian Women's Team after a year-long battle with knee problems.
13. Tyler Cuma of the Ottawa 67's is looking to make an impact at the CHL Prospects game.
14. The Everett Herald examines the consequences for the WHL should Canadian schools join the NCAA.
15. Here is a review on the new documentary following the Baie-Comeau Drakkar of the QMJHL.
16. Ken Campbell notes that internal divisions with the Leafs' braintrust may have cost them Fabian Brunstrom.
17. Good story on Jonathan Morrison, an official in the USHL.
18. Spector provides a list of NHL'ers who may be moved at the deadline.
19. The London Free Press with a story on Yvon Cournoyer. Also check out this video of The Roadrunner. You're welcome Mad Dog.
20. Things are getting testy in NYC.
21. The Hot Prospects list from the Hockey News.
22. Adam Proteau's vision of how the NHL should run.
23. An update on Montreal's prospects in the NCAA system from Hockey's Future.
24. Scott Wraight of SI gives some early predictions for the playoffs.
25. Finally, an article from the CBC not blaming W. for global warming, hangnails and papercuts.

Ballhype: hype it up!

NHL Morning Papers (Tuesday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Monday, January 21, 2008

News You Can Use Late in the Day

1. Peter Forsberg has resumed skating with Modo.
2. Bob McKenzie with an homage to Don Wittman.
3. The CHL Hot or Not list looks at Claude Giroux of the QMJHL.
4. An update on the ongoing Bertuzzi-Moore scandal.
5. Sidney Crosby will not have an MRI until Tuesday. Expect the NHL to devote full coverage to the event.
6. Mike Lundin has won a spot on the Bolts' blueline by playing a simple game. Checkers?
7. Kyle Okposo is adjusting well to life in the AHL.
8. Patience is paying dividends for Don Waddell in Atlanta.
9. Ice Age looks at how a couple of Flames defensmen deal with trade rumours.
10. Scott Burnside profiles the upcoming Trade Deadline by looking back at past deals.
11. You want NCAA power rankings? Ok, fair enough.
12. Mike Chen tries his hand at predicting trade value.
13. Larry Brooks thinks the Rangers are making a mistake by not honoring past greats.
14. The Puck Stops Here touts Patrick Sharp as the next winner of the Selke.
15. Jacques Lemaire is a fan of consistency. Why wouldn't he be? He has the personality and offensive flair of dry toast.
16. A compilation of NHL trade rumors, courtesy of Spector.
17. An interview with NAHL Commissioner, Mark Frankenfeld.
18. Check out the world's worst fight. I get more touching in washing the dishes with my wife.
19. A little known Swede has become a hot property in the NHL.
20. Scott Morrison details the NHL's plans to "jazz" up the All-Star Game.
21. Jeremy Roenick says Chris Chelios intends to play until he is 50.
22. Very, very good read on the Dave Semenko-Muhammed Ali fight. Is that Jerry Seinfeld in the picture with Ali and Semenko?
24. News and Views from Around the NHL.
25. In a stunning moment of clarity, Mike Brophy writes that the Sabres shouldn't overpay Brian Campbell.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Fantasy Watch: Scouring the Waiver Wire

D Kimmo Timonen, Philadelphia Flyers
Timonen may have been drafted in your league due to his strong past performances with Nashville, but was probably dropped within the first month based on his early season performance with the Flyers. Scoring only five points in the first month of the season, Timonen had fallen off the fantasy radar only to reappear in the New Year, after busting out with eight points in his last eight games. With two three point nights in the last week, Timonen has regained fantasy value as a defensive option and may reach the 50 point plateau with a few more strong months.
Fantasy Take: Timonen is on fire right now, scoring seven points in his last three games. He is an important piece on Philadelphia's power-play unit, which should continue to give him several scoring chances throughout the season.

F Michael Peca, Columbus Blue Jackets
Peca was a popular early season pickup after scoring six points in his first eight games with Columbus. Soon after his surprising start, the forward found himself on the IR and has battled with injuries throughout the season. Finally healthy, Peca is again showing why he was such a popular early season pickup, scoring six points this January. He has been a force on the power-play, registering a point on the pp in each of his last three games. Although Peca won't give you many goals, he has been an excellent setup man in Columbus, and should continue to be a great complement to Rick Nash.
Fantasy Take: Although he has battled inconsistency this year, Peca can be a reliable lower end fantasy starter if he can stay off the IR.

F Daniel Paille, Buffalo Sabers
Paille has given Buffalo a much needed scoring boost over the past month, notching five goals in his last seven games. Although his recent scoring outburst hasn't done much for Buffalo in the standings, the third year forward is slowly making a name for himself on the fantasy radar. Appearing in 42 games this year, Paille has registered 12 goals and 10 assists. Although his totals aren't very high, its important to note that half of Paille's points have come within the last 12 games.
Fantasy Take: As of now, Paille is only a good start in deeper leagues, but keep an eye on him over the next few years, as he has the talent to become a great player in this league.

F Robert Nilsson, Edmonton Oilers
After only appearing in only four games for the Oilers last season, Nilsson has been a regular in the lineup this year playing in 40 games. The forward has scored six goals and 22 points, which is a new career high for the former Islander. With three goals and seven points this month, Nilsson has proved to be a capable scorer on an Oilers team desperately looking for offense.
Fantasy Take: Currently riding a three game point streak, Nilsson can be a valuable pickup for those looking for help on the wing.


For Illegal Curve, I'm Jonny Remis

Ballhype: hype it up!

NHL Morning Papers (Monday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

The Western Conference morning papers are soon to follow...

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Sunday, January 20, 2008

THE AHL ZONE

The AHL Zone is the newest feature to be added to the family of Illegal Curve articles and will explore the latest news from around the American Hockey League, with special emphasis placed on prospects and call-ups.


- According to the Associated Press, Worcester Sharks left winger Tomas Plihal has been called up by the San Jose Sharks after center Curtis Brown was placed on injured reserve. Plihal has only three NHL games under his belt.
- The Manitoba Moose are currently on a six game losing skid after back-to-back weekend losses to the Peoria Rivermen and must be concerned with their inability to score goals. Brad Moran and Michael Grabner lead the team offensively but have been inconsistent over the past two weeks. The Moose were pleased to get Jason Jaffray and Mike Brown back from the NHL's Vancouver Canucks but are unsure if they have enough firepower to compete with the top teams in the Western Conference. In a possible team shake-up, the Moose released forward Mathieu Melanson and re-assigned defenceman Dylan Yeo to the Victoria Salmon Kings of the ECHL. The Moose don't play until next Thursday night against the Syracuse Crunch, and will be desperately seeking to end their streak.

- The 2008 AHL All-Star Classic will be played in Binghamton, New York, the home of the Baby Senators, on January 28 with the Skills Competition going a day earlier. The Binghamton Senators are the AHL affiliate of the NHL's Ottawa Senators. The AHL All-Star Classic annually pits Canadian All-Stars versus PlanetUSA All-Stars. It is very common for players named to the All- Star team to be called up to the NHL, for obvious reasons, and in this case many players will fly to the host city for the one night. It was announced early last week that two Winnipeggers named to the Canadian team, New York Rangers/Hartford Wolf Pack forward Nigel Dawes and Chicago Blackhawks/Rockford Ice Hogs defenseman Cam Barker,would participate in the All-Star Classic despite currently playing in the NHL.

Here are the complete rosters for the 2008 AHL All-Star Classic game:

Canadian AHL All-Stars

Goalies

Drew MacIntyre, Manitoba Moose (Charlottetown, PEI)
Nolan Schaefer, Houston Aeros (Yellow Grass, Saskatchewan)
Michael Leighton, Albany River Rats (Petrolia, Ontario)

Defensemen

Cam Barker, Rockford Ice Hogs (Winnipeg, Manitoba)
Micki Dupont, Peoria Rivermen (Calgary, Alberta)
Joel Kwiatkowski, Chicago Wolves (Saskatoon, Saskatchewan)
Lawrence Nycholat, Binghamton Senators (Calgary, Alberta)
Ryan O'Byrne, Hamilton Bulldogs (Victoria, BC)
Adam Pardy, Quad City Flames (Bonavista, Newfoundland)
Alexandre Picard, Philadelphia Phantoms (Gatineau, Quebec)
Derrick Walser, Toronto Marlies (New Glasgow, Nova Scotia)

Forwards

Derick Brassard, Syracuse Crunch (Hull, Quebec)
Nigel Dawes, Hartford Wolf Pack (Winnipeg, Manitoba)
Denis Hamel, Binghamton Senators (Lachute, Quebec)
Mike Iggulden, Worcester Sharks (St.Catherines, Ontario)
Jason Krog, Chicago Wolves (Fernie, BC)
Clarke Macarthur, Rochester Americans (Lloyminster, Alberta)
Pascal Pelletier, Providence Bruins (Labrador City, Newfoundland)
Joel Perrault, San Antonio Rampage (Montreal, Quebec)
Rich Peverley, Milwaukee Admirals (Guelph, Ontario)
Teddy Purcell, Manchester Monarchs (St.Johns, Newfoundland)
Martin St.Pierre, Rockford Icehogs (Embrun, Ontario)
Jeff Tambellini, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (Calgary, Alberta)
Kyle Wanvig, Norfolk Admirals (Calgary, Alberta)

PlanetUSA All Stars

Goalies

Jimmy Howard, Grand Rapids Griffins (Syracuse, New York)
Tuukka Rask, Providence Bruins (Savonlinna, Finland)
Pekka Rinne, Milwaukee Admirals (Kempele, Finland)

Defensemen

Jonathan Ericsson, Grand Rapids Griffins (Karlskrana, Sweden)
Peter Harrold, Manchester Monarchs (Kirtland Hills, Ohio)
Matt Lashoff, Providence Bruins (East Greenbush, NY)
Brian Lee, Binghamton Senators (Moorhead, North Dakota)
Erik Reitz, Houston Aeros (Detroit, Michigan)
Brian Salcido, Portland Pirates (Hermosa Beach, California)
Anton Stralman, Toronto Marlies (Tibro, Sweden)
Clay Wilson, Syracuse Crunch (Sturgeon Lake, Minnesota)

Forwards

Keith Aucoin, Albany River Rats (Waltham, Massachussetts)
Gabe Gauthier, Manchester Monarchs (Torrance, California)
T.J Hensick, Lake Erie Monsters (Howell, Michigan)
Joakim Lindstrom, Syracuse Crunch (Skelleftea, Sweden)
Greg Moore, Hartford Wolf Pack (Lisbon, Maine)
Joe Motzko, Hershey Bears (Bemidji, Minnesota)
Toby Petersen, Iowa Stars (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
Jared Ross, Philadelphia Phantoms (Huntsville, Alabama)
Bobby Ryan, Portland Pirates (Camden, New Jersey)
Rob Schremp, Springfield Falcons (Syracuse, New York)
Brett Sterling, Chicago Wolves (Los Angeles, California)
Jeff Taffe, Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins (Hastings, Minnesota)
Petr Vrana, Lowell Devils (Stemberk, Czech Republic)

For Illegal Curve, I'm Ezra Ginsburg.

Ballhype: hype it up!

NHL Morning Papers (Sunday Edition)

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Saturday, January 19, 2008

The HD Corner - The Cliff Fletcher Saga

I’m writing this article today with a heavy heart, as legendary broadcaster Don Wittman has passed away. Always a staple on the treadmill at a local Winnipeg gym, Wittman will be best remembered in my mind for calling Jets playoffs games for CBC. For more details on Wittman and his illustrious career, please click on this link.

In other breaking news CLIFF FLETCHER HAS BOARDED A PLANE TO THE MAYAN RIVIERA!!!

How is this news? I actually wanted to throw my remote at Bob McKenzie’s head when he dropped this bombshell. While we’re on the subject, I would like to dedicate this column to some TSN personalities. In no particular order…

Pierre McGuire: the Sean Avery award for most annoying TSN personality
-Is there anyone else more annoying on TV than Pierre McGuire, let alone on TSN? The former Habs radio colour guy (I refuse to acknowledge his prior NHL coaching duties) is just too intense. Yes, he brings tremendous insight to the game, but at a cost of blowing out my subwoofer. Tone it down a notch Pierre.

Jay Onrait: the Brett Hull award for funniest TSN personality
-Onrait has been my favourite ever since I ran into him one fateful summer afternoon at a restaurant in Winnipeg. You’ll often find Onrait and his 6’5” towering frame cracking jokes at his SportsCentre co-host or making fun of his own suits.
His column on tsn.ca is also worth checking out for a chuckle.

Michael Landsberg: the Mike Cammalleri award for best Jewish TSN personality
-The duo of Michael Landsberg and Brendan Connor will go down in TSN history as one of the all-time greats. Thelma and Louise. Sonny and Cher. Bonnie and Clyde. Peter Bondra and Michal Pivonka. Landsberg was one of the best TSN Sports Desk (RIP) hosts, but Off The Record doesn’t really cut it. There’s only so much analysis a WWE wrestler can give regarding the Argonauts off-season acquisitions. Just when you thought Landsberg made the wrong career move, please remember that Brendan Connor was last seen covering women’s volleyball on CBC. I rest my case.

Dave Hodge: the Chris Chelios award for most senile TSN personality
-Dave Hodge has got to be pushing seventy but still manages to toss out a good one-liner once in awhile. Gone are the days of TSN Inside Sports (thankfully), and now Hodge can usually be seen hosting TSN’s The Reporters on Sunday mornings. Sorry, 100 Huntley Street fans, this may create a scheduling conflict.

Rod Smith: the Rod Brind’Amour award for most multi-dimensional TSN personality
-Although Rod “The Bod” Smith can hold his own in the weight room, his versatility is best personified in how he closely resembles Brind’Amour. Whether it is hosting SportsCentre, doing TSN voiceovers, or calling CFL football, Rodsky always brings his best. Speaking of weight…

Bob McKenzie: the Teemu Selanne award for largest cranium at TSN
-Selanne’s signature Jofa helmet has reached a cult following simply because of the large melon which it protects. Bobby Mac was the obvious candidate for this prestigious title, as his oversized skull is chalk full of vital hockey information. Bob’s skills are best exemplified during the NHL Entry Draft each year when he always accurately predicts where every player will be drafted. That, and he could tell you where the best “all you can eat buffets” are located in the Greater Toronto Area.

Gord Miller: the Wade Redden award for most overrated TSN personality
-Since Pierre was already awarded the most annoying personality, I didn’t think it would be fair to have a TSN column without ripping into Miller and several of his chins. Having the opportunity to see Miller tape a segment of That’s Hockey! years ago, I can attest to the fact that he is definitely over hyped (it actually took him about 25 takes to record a proper intro to his “ground breaking” Ryan Smyth interview). How Miller is still viewed as the #1 play-by-play guy over Chris Cuthbert is beyond me. It may have something to do with Cuthbert snubbing Illegal Curve’s own Richard Pollock at a downtown Minneapolis hotel in 2003, but details are still to be confirmed.

Darren Dutchyshen: the Martin LaPointe award for best TSN bodybuilder
-My highlight of high school definitely has to be coming to school with a newspaper clipping outlining the details of Dutchie’s brawl with the groom at a wedding. No one in their right mind would want to start “chucking knuckles” with this guy. Martin LaPointe may be able to bench 300+ pounds, but I can guarantee he doesn’t look as good as Dutchie does in ruby red lipstick.

As much flack as TSN and SportCentre get for having annoying personalities, I’m thankful they still focus on actual sports and haven’t followed the path of ESPN which essential has an hour long infomercial called “SportsCenter” (note the American spelling). I’ll take Jennifer Hedger over ESPN’s Rachel Nichols any day.

Ballhype: hype it up!

NHL Morning Papers (Saturday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Friday, January 18, 2008

News You Can Use Late in the Day

1. LZ Granderson tells us the Willie O'Ree is still trying to make a difference in hockey.
2. You want more Willie O'Ree? You got 'im.
3. Darren Dreger writes that the NHL and NHLPA are discussing the implementation of a declaration date for players to decide their playing fate.
4. Bob McKenzie says that the ideal situation would see Calgary make some trades to free up money for their impending free agents.
5. Pierre Lebrun writes that Ken Hitchcock didn't even get to see Rick Nash's spectacular goal, despite being on the bench.
6. The ECHL is inducting four into their Hall of Fame.
7. The NHL Notebook from the Globe and Mail reminds us its almost deadline time.
8. Nike is about to sell their Bauer division.
9. The Puck Stops Here examines who gains the most from long term contracts for young players.
10. Chris Chelios is saying that Rob Blake wants to be a Red Wing. Chelly must need someone to carpool with when its Senior's Night at Cracker Barrel.
11. Lets Play Hockey has a feature on Brady Hjelle of the Cedar Rapids Roughriders.
12. To help illustrate this slow news day, the papers in Philly are reporting that 76'ers forward Samuel Dalembert will attend his first ever hockey game, despite being a Canadian.
13. The Duluth News Tribune says that college players are feeling the pull to turn pro earlier than in the past. I've seen girls from Duluth before, I bet they feel the urge to pull something else rather than subject themselves to those lovelies.
14. A story on the US Pond Hockey Championships, set for this weekend.
15. Charles Wang is spreading good will through hockey, and hoping that the good will reaps benefits.
16. Fanhouse does a follow-up on the Chris Pronger furniture burning story.
17. St. Louis Blues fans werethisclose to getting free beer for attending a home game.
18. Allan Muir gives us the most bang for the buck team. Might I also suggest Regina girls if Illegal Curve fans are looking for more bang for their buck?
19. Dean McAmmond has an alter ego.
20. The latest cartoon from The Instigator.
21. CBC has a feature where you can send in questions to Commissioner Gary Bettman.
22. Ryan Dixon looks at the next wave of Swedish defensemen.
23. Ross McKeon examines Brett Hull in his new role as co-GM in Dallas.
24. Check out these hockey pictures from The Best Seat in the House blog.
25. Lowetide updates us on the Oilers 2004 draft choices.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Fantasy Watch: Goalie Starts

Jan 21st - 27th

Anaheim Ducks (2) – Expect Giguere to start both games in this short week.

Atlanta Thrashers (2) – Lehtonen is healthy again and should get both starts this week.

Boston Bruins (2) – Look for Thomas to receive both starts this week.

Buffalo Sabres (2) – Miller's last win was on December 22nd, so the Sabres may turn to Thibault for one start this week.

Carolina Hurricanes (2) – Ward should be between the pipes for both games this week.

Calgary Flames (1) – CuJo will need some time to get into game shape before he gives Kiprusoff a much needed rest.

Chicago Blackhawks (2) – After two straight wins with Lalime in net, the Blawkhawks should give him the nod for both games this week.

Columbus Blue Jackets (2) – Since returning from injury, Leclaire has won his past four starts.

Colorado Avalanche (2) – Theodore has gained full control of the #1 spot and should start both games this week.

Dallas Stars (2) – Look for Turco to start both games this week.

Detroit Red Wings (2) – Expect a split between Hasek and Osgood for these games.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Roloson had his first start this month, giving up four goals in an OT loss Expect the Oilers to return to Garon for the next two games.

Florida Panthers (2) – Vokoun has been mediocre this season but should get both starts this week.

Los Angeles Kings (2) – LaBarbera has won his last three games and should receive both starts this week.

Minnesota Wild (2) – Harding missed his last start with a groin injury, so until he returns Backstrom will carry the load.

Montreal Canadiens (2) – Expect Huet to start both games this week.

Nashville Predators (3) – Mason hasn't been great lately and should yield one start to Ellis.

New Jersey Devils (2) – Brodeur should be in net for both games this week.

New York Islanders (3) – DiPietro has had a rough month thus far, but should receive all three starts this week.

New York Rangers (2) – Expect Lundqvist to start both games this week.

Ottawa Senators (2) – Look for Emery and Gerber to split the starts this week.

Philadelphia Flyers (2) – Nittymaki has gotten the bulk of the starts this month and should receive both this week.

Phoenix Coyotes (2) – Look for Bryzgalov to start both games this week.

Pittsburgh Penguins (2) – Conklin has been fantastic while Fleury has been sidelined and should get both starts this week.

San Jose Sharks (2) – Look for Nabokov to shake his losing streak this week.

St. Louis Blues (3) – Legace is currently day-to-day with a forearm injury, making Toivonen the #1 guy.

Tampa Bay Lightining (2) – Ramo has struggled this season and will continue to split starts with Holmqvist until he can prove to be a reliable starter.

Toronto Maple Leafs (2) – Toskala has won his last two games and should get both starts this week.

Vancouver Canucks (2) – Luongo should receive both starts this week.

Washington Capitals (3) – With back-to-back games, expect Johnson to steal a start.


For Illegal Curve, I'm Jonny Remis

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NHL Morning Papers (Friday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Thursday, January 17, 2008

FROZEN ASSETS


NHL Divisions: Then (start of season) & Now (now)

I have some good news for readers this week. For those of you that complained about the length of my articles, note the wider space available for writing on the blog. This will allow my articles to appear shorter.

Last week I ranked the 10 best bets you should have made over the first half of the season. Reflecting on those picks I realized that I made a mistake ranking Carolina at +4300 over Atlanta at +10000. Atlanta has been playing decently after their 0-6-0 start and now leads the Southeast Division. Seeing a new division leader in the Southeast prompted me to review the division odds as well as my picks for the division before the season.

The full September 27th article can be found here.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division

.........................Average Odds ..... Best Odds..... Site......................... Site Rating


Detroit ............... -230 ......................-163 ...........Skybet ...........................B+

Nashville ........... +337..................... +600 ......... Betsafe ....................... (NR)

St. Louis .............+1043................... +1200........ Skybet........................... B+

Columbus ......... +2063 .................. +2500........ Skybet........................... B+

Chicago ............. +2113..................... +2800...... .Skybet........................... B+


My play: Detroit -163

I said: "Although I hate laying chalk (taking a favorite at odds of less than even money) on a futures bet, Detroit is the clear favorite to win the division and could run away with the Division early. This two unit investment could pay out by December."

Analysis: Wow! Predicting Detroit to win the division. I am a geeneeus.

Northwest Division

.........................Average Odds.....Best Odds.....Site......................... Site Rating


Colorado .......... +251.................... +275 ...........Stan James....................B

Vancouver......... +259................... +320 ...........Betsafe........................ (NR)

Calgary.............. +261 .................. +285.............Betsson ......................... B-

Minnesota .........+341................... +420 ...........Betsafe .........................(NR)

Edmonton ........ +1383................ +2200...........Skybet............................ B+


My play: I passed

I said: "The Northwest division is a toss up between Colorado, Calgary, Vancouver, and probably Minnesota."

Analysis: Again no earth-shattering predictions here. All four teams are separated by two points. Best bets from this group are Vancouver at +320 and the Wild at +420.

Pacific Division

.........................Average Odds..... Best Odds..... Site......................... Site Rating


Anaheim ...........+111 ....................+125 ..............Skybet .................... B+

San Jose ...........+159.....................+200..............Gamebookers........ B-

Dallas ...............+469 .................. +600..............Betsson ...................B-

Los Angeles .....+1450................. +2000............Stan James............. B

Phoenix ............+2625..................+3300............Gamebookers.........B-


My play:
San Jose +200

I said: "With Scott Niedermayer’s return to Anaheim uncertain and San Jose having basically the same team as last year (minus Bill Guerin but with a young, improving defense), I see no reason why they cannot match the Ducks stride for stride."

Analysis: Good for me. San Jose is one point up on Anaheim with three games in hand. San Jose was able to build up a lead with Niedermayer out. Can they hold on? Maybe Dallas at +600 is the best bet but I would still rather have San Jose at +200.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

.........................Average Odds.....Best Odds.....Site.........................Site Rating


Pittsburgh...........+197 ..................+220............Betsafe.......................(NR)

NY Rangers.........+203..................+225............Gamebookers.............B-

New Jersey.........+400..................+500............Betsafe.......................(NR)

Philadelphia.......+413...................+450.............Skybet..........................B+

New York (I)......+1225.................+1500...........Unibet........................(NR)


My play: Pass

I said: "Like the Northwest Division, the Atlantic Division is also too close to call. Comparing the average odds of each team to win with the highest odds of each team to win, there is no value in the Atlantic Division. This is an easy pass."

Analysis: Looks like the Devils at +500 were the best bet out of these five teams. The Atlantic is the most competitive division thus far, as all five teams are within six points of each other. Note: New Jersey has played only 19 of their 45 games at home.


Northeast Division

.........................Average Odds ..... Best Odds..... Site......................... Site Rating


Ottawa...............-132......................+100..............Skybet......................B+

Buffalo...............+257.....................+385..............Betsson.....................B-

Toronto.............+819.....................+1200............Stan James..............B

Montreal...........+1016...................+1400............Skybet.......................B+

Boston...............+1775....................+2000...........Skybet......................B+


My play: Buffalo +385

I said: "Buffalo is strictly a value play. I don’t think Buffalo will finish ahead of Ottawa in the standings, but I still like them for 1.5 units at +385."

Analysis: Oops. Buffalo was strictly a value play. They are never going to catch Ottawa. Watch out for Montreal though, +1400 and currently eight points behind a struggling Senators (two wins in regulation over last eight games) team.


Southeast Division

.........................Average Odds.....Best Odds.....Site.........................Site Rating


Tampa Bay..........+248...................+350...........Betsafe........................(NR)

Carolina..............+263....................+300..........Gamebookers...............B-

Atlanta................+274....................+350...........Stan James....................B

Florida................+425....................+600..........Betsson...........................B-

Washington........+903...................+1400.........Skybet.............................B+


My play: Washington +1400, anyone besides Carolina

I said: "The Southeast is my favorite division from a wagering perspective. All five teams have a legitimate chance to win. Washington is strictly a value play, as I don’t think they will win, but I expect all five teams to compete for the division. At odds of +1400 it can’t hurt to take a shot at 1.5 units."

Analysis: The Capitals will not be able to recover from the loss of Michael Nylander. This division is once again wide open after Carolina jumped out to an early lead before struggling over the last two months.

Other than the Central and the Northeast, NHL divisions are wide open. What's your take?

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen, or as my friends like to call me, ABC.

About the writer: Ari-Baum Cohen's first sports betting victory came at age 8 when he won his father's office pool. He screamed like a 14 year-old girl at a Jermaine Dupri concert when Tampa Bay (had at +3500 to win Cup) and Calgary (had at +15000 to win Cup) made the Stanley Cup finals.

January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

Ballhype: hype it up!

News You Can Use Late in the Day

1. Rob Ramage has received a 4 year jail sentence for his part in the crash that killed Keith Magnuson.
2. The Hurricanes have traded Craig Adams to the Blackhawks for a conditional draft pick.
3. Dan Pollard of TSN gives a shout out to Tobias Enstrom.
4. Gene Principe notes the irony of Michael Nylander going out for the season with a shoulder problem just before playing the Oilers, a team he reneged on last summer after his wife twisted his arm.
5. The NHL and IIHF propose to raise the Euro transfer age to 20, meaning no more young Euros playing in the minors.
6. A resurgent Denver Pioneers team has its sights set on the NCAA tournament.I hope they don't contract the plague of so many other pioneers, the dreaded dysentery.
7. Brandon Nolan credits coaching for his break out year, and the AHL is considering an outdoor game, with Winnipeg as a possible venue. Evidently, the AHL braintrust has never visited Winnipeg in January.
8. Anze Kopitar is living the single life in LA, with his parents for roommates. Sounds perfect for my sister in law.
9. Iggy and Vinny have been named All-Star Captains.
10. The Fargo Force is going to attempt to "tap" Fighting Sioux fans. I bet they are. Just don't disturb my wife during Project Runway. Trust me, I tried that two weeks and one testicle ago.
11. Taking Note gives us the complete run down of WHL news from Wednesday night.
12. Adam Proteau tells us that Brian Burke will listen to offers for the 1st round pick he acquired from Edmonton in the Dustin Penner deal.
13. Jay Feaster gives us his thoughts on the trade deadline in his blog.
14. Chris Pronger alleges that Edmonton fans burned his rental furniture. Still no cure for gap-toothedness.
15. The latest installment from the Year of the Rams.
16. David Staples with a very funny look at his likes and dislikes about each Oiler.
17. The Score gives the low-down for everyone involved in fantasy hockey.
18. Edward Fraser notes that the Oklahoma City Blazers are giving away livestock as a promotion for fans attending their games. They should try this in Calgary. Even Flames fans deserve a little action now and again...
19. A mildly entertaining (Think Flames vs. Wild on a Wednesday night) work of fiction on how Cujo was wooed to Cowtown.
20. Battle of California makes a heartfelt plea to Ottawa to take Rob Blake off the Kings' hands.
21. In a follow up to RP's Ovechkin editorial, Tyler Dellow of the MC79 blog offers up his detailed analysis on AO.
22. The Blackhawks have signed Patrick Sharp to a 4-year contract extension.
23. Thursday's water cooler notes from nhl.com.
24. A profile on Bruins prospect Pascale Pelletier, recently recalled to Boston.
25. George Johnson thinks the mind games will start in Calgary with Curtis Joseph's arrival. Likely the first and only time the phrase "mind games" will be used to refer to Calgary.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Cold Hard Rants

I admit it. Lock me up. Throw away the key. Sentence me to hard time. I’m guilty. I enjoy it now, and I will enjoy it when it happens again. Nothing tickles my fancy quite like the sight of the Toronto Maple Leafs in disarray.

Given the amount of newsprint that has been generated on this issue, an alien dropped into the centre of Toronto would not be too far off in assuming a catastrophic, apocalyptic event has occurred (i.e. World War III, natural disaster etc). In reality, all we are witnessing is a historically poor performing franchise, *gasp* still performing poorly. (Note: for all the Leafs die-hards who are typing/scribbling hate mail to me for calling the Leafs a bad franchise, save it. Don’t talk to me about what happened in the NHL of the 1940s. You have sucked since I can remember, and will probably continue to do so by the time I have forgotten how to remember.)

What I do not understand, is why people are surprised that the Leafs suck. All of the trademarks of a franchise in disarray are present and accounted for in Leafs land.

Top heavy, overly bureaucratic organization? Check.

General Manager who was hired for reasons other than being the best available candidate (hello, working for cheap)? Check. (Although it pains me to write that about an old neighbour—Ramsgate Bay in Winnipeg, represent!)

Poor scouting and thus poor entry draft performances? Check. (Can anyone recall the last homegrown Maple Leafs star? Anyone? Anyone? Beuller?)

Overpaying for free agents? Check.

Trades that “address” issues that weren’t a priority (coughVesacough)? Check

I could go on and on, because I am thoroughly enjoying this. However, I do feel a little bit bad for the real Leafs fans who have had to put up with a level of consistent incompetence which makes the presidency of George W. Bush look like a resounding success in comparison. (Note to Republican readers: it hasn’t been, no matter how many of those “Mooslims” he blows up.)

Unfortunately for Leafs fans, in contrast to the Presidency of George W. Bush which is mercifully coming to an end, there is no hope on the horizon, as I, for one, and call me a pessimist if you must, see no signs that the diseases which have plagued the Maple Leafs organization for generations on end, show no signs of abetting. The Leafs would be very wise to look down the hall at the Toronto Raptors for advice on how to resuscitate a floundering franchise. However, as we all know the words Leafs and wise rarely appear together in the same sentence.

For Illegal Curve, I am Andrew M.

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NHL Morning Papers (Thursday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

  • Dave Shoalts of the Globe & Mail provides readers with the apparent conditions under which Cliff Fletcher would agree to accept the Leafs' GM position.
  • Kevin Allen attributes much of the Thrashers' recent success to the play of Kari Lehtonen in this morning's USA Today.

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Wednesday Editorial: Examining the length of the Alexander Ovechkin contract

With the recent signing by the Washington Capitals of superstar Alexander Ovechkin to a thirteen year contract, many people around the hockey world are wondering if this term is too long. Before examining the Ovechkin contract, we must first note that both Rick DiPietro of the New York Islanders and Mike Richards of the Philadelphia Flyers signed contracts longer than ten plus years prior to the Ovechkin deal. Therefore, it should be pointed out that Ovechkin’s contract was not the first of its kind. That being said, we will still examine this contract from the perspective of both parties.

Is the contract too long for the Capitals?

When examining the contract from the Washington perspective, there are a number of factors that have to be taken into account. First off, if the Capitals didn’t give Ovechkin thirteen years on his contract, would he have re-signed with them? That question seems stupid seeing as how his rights are owned by the Capitals until he is 25 (thus giving them the right to match any offer from another team) but if he really did not want to play for the team, he could have held out. Using that line of thinking, the Capitals may have been in a very poor bargaining position.

Secondly, the Capitals are paying Ovechkin a lot of money now; however, they are also avoiding having to worry about Ovechkin becoming an unrestricted free agent (UFA) down the road. Often times, especially in baseball, teams will pay a higher starting salary, in order to pay-off the player for any loss he will incur for having passed up on unrestricted free agency. So, even though the NHL takes the player’s average salary per year and counts that number against the salary cap, there is a reason why Ovechkin is being paid more money than Sidney Crosby starting next season.

Thirdly, how can the Capitals be sure Ovechkin will stay healthy? The fact is--they can’t. That, in my opinion, is the biggest risk that comes along with this deal. What if Ovechkin sustains a career-changing injury? While I hope this doesn’t happen, and understand the unlikeliness of it occurring, anything is possible. It is possible that an injured Ovechkin will not be the player he is now; thus, leaving the Capitals with an annual cap-hit of almost ten million dollars without justifiable production.

Is the contract too long for Ovechkin?

Alexander Ovechkin has to be thrilled that he just signed a guaranteed thirteen year contract; that being said, his guarantee of $100+ million does carry with it some possible drawbacks. First, we must examine the possible loss of money Ovechkin will incur because he passed up unrestricted free agency during the prime of his career. Unrestricted free agency not only carries with it a bidding war for a player’s services (many times from big-time markets like New York or L.A.) but also the ability to make a lot of money through endorsements. If the young Russian superstar were to have passed on this contract and played the rest of his time out until he reached UFA status in his mid-twenties, then almost every team in the NHL would have been salivating to sign him. Assuredly, a number of those teams would have been in big markets, which carries with it big time endorsement money. Never mind the fact that the NHL in four-to-five years could have a far higher cap than it currently does (therefore allowing for a higher maximum per-year offer).

Secondly, one has to wonder what the NHL salary landscape will be in 2017. Ovechkin will still be in his early 30’s, and with the way athletes condition themselves these days, he will most likely be playing at a very high level. Consequently, if you factor in inflation, the average NHL salary in 2017 will almost assuredly be significantly higher than it is today and Ovechkin may be worth far more than the almost $10 million average he will be paid at that time. If that is the case, then Ovechkin may be losing out on a fair amount of money. On the other hand, if the NHL struggles and the cap shrinks, then Ovechkin will be quite happy with his new contract.

Finally, what if Ovechkin wants out of Washington in a few years? That possibility is realistic. It is not as if the Capitals have been a successful franchise this decade; and while they have some young players to be excited about, this is not the second coming of the Ottawa Senators or Detroit Red Wings. It is very possible Ovechkin gets sick and tired of losing in the U.S. capital and wants out. Now, I realize he did negotiate a modified no-trade clause as part of his contract, but that doesn't kick in until 2014. Moreover, after 2014, he can only list ten teams to which he doesn't want to be traded to. One must wonder if Ovechkin may have been better off signing a six-year deal at his current price, leaving himself the ability to re-evaluate his surroundings and the success of the Capitals at that time.

Conclusion

In the end, the contract carries with it many negative risks and may very well be too long for the Capitals. Nonetheless, it also carries with it some positive risks and that is the way contract negotiation should be. The fact of the matter is, risk on both sides isn’t a bad thing; so long as the parties involved are able to deal with the possible consequences that lie therein.

For Illegal Curve, I’m Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

News You Can Use Late in the Day

1. Damien Cox suggest players like Scott Niedermayer and Ty Conklin should appear on the balloting for the Hart Trophy. I think he has spent too much time in Toronto. The only trophies these guys should get are Best Mid-Season Un-retirement and Best Option Available in Pittsburgh (Which Isn't Saying Much) awards.
2. Danielle Goyette has retired from hockey at the age of 41.
3. Willie O'Ree recalls his NHL debut.
4. Bob McKenzie reports that Marian Hossa will test the UFA waters this year, and expects to be traded.
5. Martine Gaillard (Meow) says that the one good thing about the implosion of the Leafs is that players and management are giving candid interviews.
6. News and Notes from the CHL.
7. The USHL has posted their draft lists for 1992's and 1993's. They have also entered into a sponsorship agreement with JLG Architects.
8. The NHL Hot or Not list from John Kreiser.
9. Inside College Hockey gives us their Hobey Baker tracker. Is it me or does the kid from St. Cloud look like a guy from ABBA?
10. Al Strachan offers advice to Leafs management.
11. Fox Sports profiles the top snubs for the NHL All-Star Game.
12. Jeff Marek with an interesting take on the price of young defensemen.
13. Bobby Orr has been selected to the World Sports Hall of Fame.
14. David Staples examines the "older" free-agent signees from last summer and how they are progressing.
15. Allan Muir of SI answers questions in his weekly mailbag.
16. The Stars have recalled BJ Crombeen and the Canucks have recalled Mason Raymond.
17. Interesting story on Dennis Polonich and his year of pro hockey in Europe.
18. The NHL and the IIHF are meeting in New York to discuss transfer agreements, though Russia is still not expected to sign the agreement. In Soviet Russia, agreement signs you.
19. A Q and A with Gerald Coleman and Trevor Daley.
20. Ryan Dixon details the miracle that was Sergei Samsonov's 3-point game and uses his gleaming wit to tell us NHL'ers should wear masks. If you are over 18 and still wearing a mask in the NHL, you should relinquish your nuts and start watching Sex in the City.
21. Another humourous entry by Jamie McLennan in his blog on playing hockey in Japan.
22. The Hockey News tells us about 10 players they had never heard of before. Thats some mighty fine reporting there, Lou.
23. Ending the worst kept secret since Brad dumped Jen, the Leafs have received permission to talk to Cliff Fletcher.
24. The Score highlights the young players making an impact in the game today. In mentioning Oilers rearguard Ladislav Smid, we can only assume that the Score is a sucker for guys who are consistently -3.
25. To cap off an especially boring news day, a look at the ECAC.

Ballhype: hype it up!

NHL Morning Papers (Wednesday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers: