News you can use

In this article, Globe and mail columnist/preacher Stephen Brunt discusses the abject failure that Gary Bettman has been. Not that this is a surprise to our dedicated readers, but still it's nice to see that my rantings against Bettman have not fallen on deaf ears. (Note: My tongue is planted firmly in cheek) Now if we can just get more NHL articles written in the newspapers that service the Tri-State area. Wink, wink.

For Illegal curve, I am Andrew M.

Canadian teams make money for the NHL

From Rick Westhead of the Toronto Star:

"A secret NHL report detailing the ticket revenues of its 30 teams reveals what Canadian hockey fans have long suspected and offers a compelling case for putting more teams north of the border."

Here is the entire article from this morning's Toronto Star.

The article basically calls for expansion or relocation of a NHL team to Canada. I, for one, am completely in favor of such a proposition. Canadians live and breathe hockey, and this report clearly shows the game is flourishing north of the border. I am sure our Winnipeg readers enjoy the comment from NHLPA head man Paul Kelly that can be found half-way through the article.

A Look at NHL Attendance Numbers in 2008 (and what it could possibly mean for a return of the NHL to Winnipeg)

As a Winnipeg Jets fan, whenever I read any hockey-related news, the first filter the information goes through is "How does this relate to the Jets?" For instance, when I come across a story like the firing of John Paddock (former Jets coach), or the return of Teemu Selanne, my thoughts naturally turn to their connection to Winnipeg. Normally, this process is just a momentary knee-jerk reaction that soon subsides and lets me then look at the info in its present context. But in the case of NHL attendance figures, I spend a little more time thinking about what it all means. You can guess where I'm going with this.

According to NHL attendance numbers through the first 70 games of this season, 10 of the league's 30 teams are averaging at or under 16,000 fans a game. They are, in descending order of emptiness: Chicago, Atlanta, New Jersey, Boston, Washington, Florida, Nashville, Columbus, THE PHOENIX COYOTES (caps intended, Jets fans), and the New York Hockey Islanders, who are averaging just over 13,500 per home game.

On the bright side, there are no teams averaging under 13,000 fans a game like last season, when the Isles, Hawks, and Blues were the Molson Cup Three Stars of attendance futility. [My guess for the jump in these cities, respectively: DiPietro using some of that 40 year contract money to buy tickets for friends, the end of the Bill Wirtz era in the Chi, and a strong management team coupled with a better on ice product in St. Louis where the Blues are drawing over 17,000 a game].

The attendance figures, which can be viewed online courtesy of ESPN at http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/attendance?year=2008, break down the numbers into a number of categories, including home and road attendance, percentage of capacity, and total fans in attendance on the season. Though not specifically relevant to our Jets-related analysis, some of the notable facts that emerge include:

1. The Habs lead the league in home attendance, drawing a full house of 21,273 every night. The figures are the same as last year, when the team missed the playoffs. This year at least, the on-ice product justifies the attendance.
2. The Pens, Wings, and Rangers are the three most popular roadshows. Considering the Wings play divisional games against hockey apathetic Chicago and Columbus, this number shows how popular the Original Six stalwart remains.
3. Eleven teams are at over 100% capacity for home games. [either standing room figures count, or the math is being done by the guys in charge of accounting at Societe General bank in Paris.]

But the thing that grabs my attention the most is the low figures that prevail in the bottom third of league teams, because this has the most import to any analysis regarding the feasibility of bringing a franchise back to Winnipeg. And without going into a full-blown analysis of what pegs need to be put in place (pun intended) before this dream can become a quasi-reality --and let's not kid ourselves, there's a lot that would need to be right -- the NHL attendance figures are telling. Despite a rise in average attendance that has been consistent over the past decade, with the median team now drawing around 17,000 fans per game, a number of teams are failing to cash in on the league's increased popularity. And with these low-hanging fruit ripe for the picking (ie: relocation!), let us now turn ourselves to the Winnipeg question.

The Jets: A Historical Perspective

In three of the last four seasons before leaving for Phoenix (1992-'94), the Jets averaged a little over 13,500 fans per game. I leave out 1995 from this analysis (when the team drew a paltry 11,000 per game) since the numbers that season are justifiably skewered by the knowledge that the team was leaving at year's end.

During the three years cited, NHL average attendance hovered around the 14,000 mark. In the 1992 season, the average NHL team drew just over 500 more fans per game than did the Jets, making them hardly uncompetitive in this regard. And before one rushes to conclusions to point out that 13,500 fans would be on par with the league-worst Islanders, the following three factors, all of which are present today, are worth considering. Taken together, they help establish a promising case that a team in Winnipeg under the current conditions could consistently draw large enough crowds to –other factors being equal – make the team a viable enterprise and a worthwhile investment for the NHL as a whole.

A Better League:

The NHL average attendance this season is about 17,000 fans. Now one might be inclined to think that the rising number points to the inability for Winnipeg to compete given its small population and historically low attendance numbers. From another vantage point, however, one can make a strong case that this trend actually points towards an increased ability of the city to host a viable franchise. Presumably, attendance growth is partly attributable to an overall better product. When a league as a whole is in disarray (see MLB, or NHL post-strike figures) attendance plummets across the board. Conversely, when a league experiences a popularity boom, all franchises benefit. Which is to say, in the new NHL, where TV numbers and attendance numbers are way up in recent years, Winnipeg should be able to be carried along to higher figures than in the early 90's, irrespective of the attendance woes still experienced by some of the league's clubs today.

A Better Team:

Assuming Winnipeg fans are not indifferent to the competitiveness of their teams, and, like St. Louis Blues fans, will come to the gate in droves so long as the team is worth watching (unlike Toronto Maple Leaf fans, who would fill the ACC even if the Marlies suited up instead…..then again, this might make the on-ice product better!) a competitive team in a salary-cap, parity driven league, would presumably draw more fans than the often lackluster clubs that graced the city in the past. The attendance figures for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers Canadian Football team, which rise and fall with the team's on-field success, is suggestive of such a disposition amongst Winnipeg sports fans. Which is to say, if a quasi-decent team were to relocate to Winnipeg (are you listening, Nashville?) one could certainly expect the fans to come out in droves for years to come.

A Better Arena:

To say the Winnipeg Arena was an outdated, ugly facility would be like saying Britney Spears and Chris Simon would have a crazy, messed up child. That is, it's an understatement. With a new arena, like the recently built MTS Center (capacity: 15,000, with potential to expand if required) centrally located in the city's downtown district, an NHL club in Winnipeg should fare well attendance-wise in comparison to how the Jets fared in the old barn (note: the arena issue was a major reason the team was sold in the first place).

The recent experience of the New Jersey Devils is instructive on this point. Last year, at the Meadowlands, the Devils averaged 14,100 fans per game (5000 if you subtract those put to sleep by the trap before the first intermission). This year, after relocating to Newark, the team is drawing nearly 15,500 a night, a substantial increase! Since the team is the same, the fans are notoriously apathetic, and the local economy hasn't changed (an important factor, as the Detroit experience shows), it looks like the jump can be attributed to the new arena rather than other factors.

Conclusion

This analysis could go on forever, but for the purposes of our task today we will leave it where it stands. I have simply attempted to establish grounds for belief that, given current attendance trends throughout the NHL today, along with the circumstances on the ground in Winnipeg, it does not seem entirely implausible that a franchise in the city could not be a viable enterprise under the right conditions.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Steve Werier.

Morning Musings

I am going to catch the Sabres' morning skate so I will be skipping my usual preamble for two consecutive days. The normal Morning Musings format will return on Tuesday.

On to the morning papers:

• According to Dave Molinari of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Ryan Malone is in the best shape of his career and coach Michel Therrien believes Malone has matured as a player and person.
• President John Davidson thinks the Blues have played "sloppy" thus far in the pre-season and need to get rid of some of their bad habits so the team doesn't have a bad start like it did last season. The Blues lost 4-3 to Chicago in exhibition play on Sunday.
• Dan Boyle severed three tendons in what can only be termed as a freak accident after the Bolts' pre-season loss to the Capitals on Saturday. The good news is the surgery to repair the wrist went "perfectly." Boyle is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. (Writer's note: This is a big loss for the Bolts. I am interested to see how the team will start off the season w/o their best defenseman by a country mile.)
• Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star takes a look at the forward options for the Leafs heading into the season without Kyle Wellwood or Mark Bell for significant time. (Writer's note: After looking at these forward lines, Leaf fans may cancel their subscription to Leafs TV.)
• Alain Vigneault was not happy with the play of Brad Isbister and Curtis Sanford in the team's 5-0 exhibition loss to the Ducks on Sunday. To make matters worse, former Canuck Todd Bertuzzi had a goal and two assists in the first game against his former club.
• Pierre LeBrun of the Canadian Press has Gary Bettman's thoughts on the NHL in Europe and the success of the salary cap system thus far.
• Scott Taylor of the National Post has a good article about the NHL and the city of Winnipeg. (Writer's note: In the article an unnamed TSN commentator questions whether Winnipeg can support a team if they can't even sell out one game a year. I'd love to know who this genius is. Last season the MTS Centre was sold out for an exhibition game between Edmonton and Phoenix. First off, no one cares about either team in Winnipeg. Secondly, you are paying regular season prices to watch wannabe NHL'ers who will be in the AHL, playing in the MTS Centre the next week, for a quarter of the price. I have one question: Who else sells out arenas for exhibition games?)
• As Dan Wood of the Orange County Register details, Bobby Ryan is making his case to stay up with the big club when final cuts come in the next week. The youngster had four assists in the Ducks 5-0 victory over the Canucks on Sunday night.
• Coach Bob Hartley wants to see a more intense attitude and an increased number of battles at Thrashers' camp.
• It looks like Bobby Allen will be in a fight to make the Bruins as a seventh defenseman. Fluto Shinzawa has this story and other notes from around Bruins' camp in this morning's Boston Globe.
• With eleven games before the Bruins' first game, Stephen Harris of the Boston Herald takes a look at how the team's forward lines might look heading into the season.
• The Sabres defeated the Blue Jackets 3-2 in a shootout on Sunday.
• Blue Jackets' camp is about to get more serious as cuts are expected to be handed down today. Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch has that story and other notes from Jackets' camp.
• Flames' prospect Brent Krahn can't catch a break and the injury he incurred in the first rookie skate has cost him a chance at beginning the season as the team's backup goaltender.
• As Scott Cruickshank of the Calgary Herald writes, David Moss is doing his best to forget about the missed opportunity he had to win game six for the Flames in last year's first round. (Writer's note: He shouldn't feel bad. The Flames were thoroughly outclassed and were lucky to take the series to six games.)
• The Canes somehow only scored one shootout goal all of last season and are hoping Matt Cullen's ability to score in the one-on-one battle will rub off on his teammates. Here are some notes from around Hurricanes' camp.
• Hawks' forward Jason Williams had a goal and two assists in his team's 4-3 victory over St. Louis on Sunday. Hawks' coach Denis Savard is encouraging his players to go to the net to generate more scoring chances.
• The Sakic-Brunette-Smyth line has yet to develop good chemistry but the Avs aren't overly worried.
• The Stars fourth line may be all "goons" this season but, as Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News writes, Dave Tippett likes to have that presence and energy on the ice.
• It is rather evident that age is just a number to Chris Chelios as he goes into the 2007/08 season at age 45.
• Andrew Cogliano is impressing the Oilers' brass at training camp and is looking to secure a full-time roster spot. However, he is not the only youngster turning heads at Oilers' camp.
• With the roster being slimmed down, Jacques Martin is getting down to what he does best and that is teaching.
• Lonnie White of the L.A. Times details the Kings' plans in Europe before they play the Ducks on Saturday in London, England.
• With roster spots still available, coach Jacques Lemaire wants one of the Wild's youngsters to prove that they warrant a roster spot with their play.
• While Carey Price is the future in Montreal, Cristobal Huet is the present writes Dave Stubbs in this morning's Montreal Gazette.
• Tomas Plekanec had a hat trick on Sunday as the Habs defeated the rival Bruins 4-3 in Halifax.
• John Glennon of the Tennessean tells us that the Preds may lose Josh Langfeld is they place him on waivers.
• Kevin Weekes of the Devils will be back on the ice today after a CT scan proved his head is in normal shape.
• While most of the attention goes to the big-name signings, the Islanders' signings of Jon Sim and Josef Vasicek have looked good so far in Isles' camp.
• The Coyotes could be icing one of the bigger forward lines in the entire league writes Jim Gintonio in this morning's Arizona Republic. Meanwhile at camp, even after being sent down, David LeNeveu still believes he can be a solid NHL goaltender.
• After turning down the Flyers' captaincy twice during the 2005-06 season, Simon Gagne says he will now proudly accept the captaincy if it is offered to him.
• Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen documents the worry surrounding the injuries to keep players at Sens' camp. Ray Emery's wrist isn't fully healed, and he is being joined on the sidelines by Wade Redden and Mike Fisher.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.