News You Can Use Late in the Day

1. Bob McKenzie with his thoughts on the Canadiens powerplay and the Wings-Avs series.
2. Darren Dreger comments on the Derian Hatcher hit.
3. Memorial Cup history, 1936.
4. The Ice Sheet discusses Montreal's lack of intensity. A small contingent of Illegal Curve contributors predicted problems ahead for the Habs due to their Euro heavy roster.
5. Canada gets a wakeup call from the Russians, lose 4-1 in exhibition play.
6. Michel Therien is tough on the Penguins.
7. Pat Burns is enjoying being back behind the bench.
8. Wilkes-Barre captain and former Moose Nathan Smith apprehended for streaking.
9. Pat Quinn may be interested in the Ottawa job.
10. James Duthie likes the Stars' chances.
11. Barry Melrose to coach the Lightning?
12. Chris Osgood credits deconstructing his game with is resurgence.
13. Puck Rakers thinks that the Blue Jackets could step into the void in the West.
14. Ken Campbell wonders what happened to Carey Price.
15. Pierre Lebrun is learning a lot about the 8 remaining playoff teams.
16. Hal Gill tells Sean Avery that he wasn't hugged enough as a child.
17. The NHL names a committee to look at goalie equipment.
18. Jeff Marek talks playoff hijinks and double standards.
19. Watch one man break up with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
20. Justin Azevedo, of the Kitcher Rangers, wins the OHL's top player award.
21. Introducing David Littman, the newest blogger at the Hockey News.]
22. The weekly Hot List from the Hockey News.
23. The weekly release from the USHL.
24. Tim Schmitt insists that the Sabres must sign Nathan Gerbe to help restore their image.
25. The Blues hope to have T.J. Oshie signed soon.

Numbers Game: Ferguson by the numbers

Hats off to Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment for finally recognizing that they made a huge mistake by bringing in John Ferguson Jr. to “run the show” for the Leafs. I use the term “run the show” very loosely of course. Ferguson was merely a puppet for the MLSE board which is compromised of prominent real estate developers, lawyers and pension fund directors who in addition to being extremely successful businessmen also possess brilliant hockey minds?

With Ferguson fired, the Leafs have handed the GM position to former Leafs’ GM Cliff Fletcher accompanied by a promise by the MLSE board to give him full control over the hockey operations. This model has certainly worked well for the Raptors and under the guidance of a hockey version of Bryan Colangelo, it will certainly serve the best interests of the Leafs. However, the question remains: Is Fletcher the right guy for the job?

Fletcher has certainly demonstrated the willingness to pull off the big trade and the foresight to recognize the potential contributions of players. He was responsible for bringing Doug Gilmour and Mats Sundin to Toronto. He will have to utilize the same foresight and willingness in the next month when he is faced with the pressure to, ironically, trade Sundin.

In response to today’s firing, I looked at the success of the Leafs under their last 4 general managers dating back to when Fletcher took over in 1991. The list includes:
Cliff Fletcher (1991-1997)
Ken Dryden (1997-1999)
Pat Quinn (1999-2003)
John Ferguson Jr. (2003-2008)

For the analysis, I recognize that team points are now scored differently than they were in the 90’s. Since 1999, teams received a point for losing a game in overtime and, of course, shootouts were brought into the game to break ties in 2005. As well, the league has expanded since the early 90’s from a 22-team league to the 30-team league that we have today.

Click on image to enlarge:

The Leafs were most successful under Pat Quinn. They enjoyed their highest winning percentage (.589) and on, average, ranked 5th in the conference and 2nd in their division, while qualifying for the playoffs every season. Quinn’s teams also consistently ranked in the top 10 in the league in goals scored and were above the league average in goals against. They narrowly missed the Stanley Cup finals losing to the Hurricanes in 2001 and were generally regarded as contenders in the East every season.

Conversely, under Ferguson, the Leafs have failed to qualify for the playoffs since the lockout and are likely going to fall short again this year. They did tally 103 points in his first season (2003), but how much of that can be attributed to Ferguson instead of Quinn, his predecessor? Since the lockout the Leafs have ranked, on average, 10th in the East and 4th in their 5-team division.

Ironically, Fletcher did have a lower winning % than Ferguson. However, the Leafs in the mid 90’s, when Gilmour was in his prime, were a much better team than now, and they would have arguably had a much higher winning percentage should the shootout have been in place. As well, the Leafs almost reached 100 points in 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 en route to conference finals appearances without receiving points for overtime losses. For 4 consecutive seasons starting in 1992, the Leafs finished at worst 5th in their conference.

Under Fletcher, the Leafs appeared to have difficulty scoring, finishing, at best, 13th in the league in goals for. However, the Leafs did rank above league average in goals against during Fletcher’s tenure with the exception of his final season. In the last 2 seasons, the Leafs have finished 21st and 25th overall in goals against and currently have the 4th worst goals against to date.

Ferguson had his chance with the Leafs. His track record certainly supports MLSE’s decision to fire him today. Whether Fletcher was the right guy remains to be seen. Granted, while he will only retain the GM title until the end of the season, what Fletcher does in the next few months will certainly go a long way in molding the Leafs potential success over the next few years. Here is to hoping that they don’t continue along the path that Ferguson has currently steered them on.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

Comparing Quinn and Maurice - Numbers Game

It is all but certain the John Ferguson Jr. will be fired some time in the immediate future. The Leafs have been mired in an awful slump with their last win in regulation being over a month ago. Reports have also surfaced that the players are no longer responding to their coach, Paul Maurice, so any new interim GM would likely fire Maurice as his first move.

While there could be endless debates about whether Maurice should get the axe, there is no disputing their paltry record and changes are clearly needed. However, while the team has not performed well, some players have certainly succeeded under Maurice’s guidance. Pat Quinn certainly could not get Alexei Ponikarovsky going and Mats Sundin is currently enjoying his best seasons since 96/97. Granted, Sundin has finally been paired with that prolific winger that he has been deprived of since he came to Toronto…. wait, my mistake… Jason Blake does not qualify.

In today’s Numbers Game, I looked at the production of some of the Leafs that played under both Quinn and Maurice (Mats Sundin, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Nik Antropov, Alexander Steen, Matt Stajan, Tomas Kaberle, Bryan McCabe and Chad Kilger) Specifically, I compared goals, assists and points per game (GPG, APG and PPG) and minutes per game (MPG).

So what is the verdict? Bryan McCabe is fairing no better under Maurice. In fact, his average PPG (0.57) is the exact same as under Quinn. Darcy Tucker and Alex Steen have, in fact, dropped in production while getting the same amount of playing time. Steen has been unable to regain his form that saw him amass 18 goals and 27 points in his rookie season under Quinn. As well, it appears that age is starting to become a factor for Tucker who just can not seem to find the scoresheet this year. Of course this happens in his first season after signing a contract extension.

Sundin, Kaberle, Stajan, and Kilger have all seen negligible increases in their point production. That increase can probably best be attributed to the fact that they are getting more playing time under Maurice with Stajan and Kaberle getting as much as 5.75 and 4.75 more minutes per game.

However, Maurice does appear to be getting the best out of Antropov and Ponikarovsky. Both translated more playing time into a significant increase in production. Antropov will, barring an injury (knock on wood), surpass his career high of 45 points this year, while Ponikarovsky enjoyed the best season of his career last year. The towering Russian forwards have increased their PPG by almost 0.3 points in the last two seasons. A critic could certainly argue though that Antropov and Ponikarovsky were very young when Quinn was the coach and now they have finally figured out how to utilize their skills in the NHL, irrespective of Maurice’s guidance.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not suggesting that Maurice is completely to blame for the failure of the Leafs. In order to get the best out of players, it certainly helps to surround them with skilled linemates and that’s where Ferguson comes in. Quinn, as well, without question had the luxury of coaching much better teams. Starting in goal, CUJO and Belfour gave the Leafs a very good chance to win every night. Moreover, there was enough talent that Chad Kilger never had to play on the top 2 lines.

Changes are clearly needed for the Leafs and whether deserving or not, one of those changes will like cost Maurice his job. The Leafs just can’t win and the playoffs are a long shot, even in the Eastern conference. The truth is no matter who coaches this current group of players, they are going to have a very difficult time enjoying any kind of success!

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin

Leaf's Stats (Click on image to enlarge)

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