Numbers Game: Updated Standings

Thursday night’s action saw the Western Conference playoff picture become clearer. Both the Vancouver Canucks and Chicago Blackhawks were officially eliminated from the playoffs with losses. The Flames and Predators have locked up the final spots in the West and all that is left is to jostle for a higher playoff seed.

Meanwhile in the East, the Canadians ended the Sabres' playoff hopes with a commanding 3-1 victory, while the Capitals' win over the Lightning moved them into 8th replacing the Flyers, at least for now.

Here is the updated standings (as of April 4):

Numbers Game: Push for the Playoffs

Despite the fact that most teams only have 2 games remaining, the playoff matchups are far from being set. In the East, there are 7 teams fighting for 5 spots, while there are 4 teams fighting for the final two seeds in the West.

Below is the current standings, including possible points, goal differential, remaining games, and head-to-head points. Numbers Game will update the standings every night until the final playoff picture is set.

The tie breaking procedures are as follows:
1) winning %
2) game won
3) head-to-head points
4) goal differential

Numbers Game: Gretzky is the only Great One

In 1982, Gretzky amassed an incredible 212 points. The following 5 seasons, he continued his phenomenal play scoring at least 183 points while leading the league in scoring each season. Lemieux also had some epic seasons. In 1988, he tallied 168 points, following that up with a 199 point season in 1989. Last year, Crosby, often dubbed the next Great One, scored 120 points which topped the NHL. Is there ever really going to be another Gretzky though?

To be fair, it would not be appropriate to use point production as the sole gauge of whether a player, like Crosby, is deserving of the “Great One” title. The NHL will almost certainly never see another player score 200 points. Today’s NHL is not the same free-flowing, offensive friendly game that Gretzky was able to exploit game after game in the 80’s.

Instead, comparing a player's point production to the rest of the players in that season provides a much better indication of how good that player is. In today's Numbers Game I compared the point total for the leading scorer in each season since 1980 to the player who finished second in scoring and the players who round out the top 5. There is no disputing that Gretzky is the best player of all-time.

When Gretzky scored 212 goals in 1982, he had 65 more points than the player who finished second and 74.25 points more than the average of the rest of the top 5. In 1987, Gretzky’s 183 points was 69.4% higher than the second ranked player, who scored 108 points, and over 71% higher than the average of the top 5. In fact, from 1982 – 1987 during his heyday, Gretzky scored at least 65 more points (44% higher) than the second leading scorer. By comparison, Lemieux’s highest differential was in 1989 when his 199 points was only 18.5% (31 points) more than the second leading scorer. Since the lockout, Crosby’s 5.3% differential was the highest, which was 6 points more than second place Thornton.

The numbers speak for themselves. In the last 25 years, no one has come close to Gretzky. And in the next 25 years, we will be saying the same thing. Gretzky did play hockey when the goal judge was far more likely to suffer from carpel tunnel syndrome, but so did the other players that played with him. Gretzky is the best player to every play hockey and he is the best player that will ever play.

If this has made you admire Gretzky's accomplishments even more, maybe that will sway you to vote 'yes' on Ilegal Curve's most recent poll. Feel free to use the comments section below to explain why he is/isn't the greatest of all-time.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

Numbers Game: Playoff Seeds

With the playoffs just around the corner and with some teams fighting for home-ice advantage, while others are just trying to get in, I decided to look at the success of each conference ranking in the playoffs.

I looked at the playoff brackets for the Stanley Cup Playoffs since the 1997-1998 season. The results were quite interesting.

For instance, it’s not the top ranked teams in each conference that have the highest winning % in the first round. Surprisingly, since 1998, the 4th seed in the East has won 89% of the time and 67% of the time in the 2nd round (also the highest). With the 4th seed having such high winning %, that means that the 5th ranked team in the East has only won 11% of their first round matchups. Further, the 5th seed in the East and West, as well as the 8th seed teams in the East have never advanced past the second round.

The seed that has enjoyed the most success in the playoffs is 1st place in the West. They win, on average, 78% of their first round matchups, and have won the Stanley Cup 3 times since 1998.

In the West, no team ranked lower than 3rd has won the Stanley Cup, while teams seeded lower than 4th in the East have never won.

If the playoffs started today, this is where each team would be seeded:

Numbers Game: Power Play Min/Goal

In the last Numbers Game, I looked at a new statistic, even-strength minutes per point. Continuing on that analysis, today I will look at power-play minutes per point (PP/P) to find out who is the most the efficient player in the NHL on the power play. (based on statistics as of Feb. 20/08)

PP Min/G



Alexander Ovechkin leads the league in power play goals with 17. He also averages the second most power play minutes per game at 5:32, right behind fellow Russian, Ilya Kovalchuk. However, he ranks 8th in PP min/G. Alex Kovalev sits in 1st place in PP min/G scoring, on average, 1 PPG every 15:30 of PP time. Right behind him in second place is the Penguin’s Ryan Malone. Malone averages just over 2 minutes of PP time every game, just over half of Kovalev’s PP TOI/G. Malone has 8 PP G compared to Kovalev’s 16. Scott Hartnell, Thomas Vanek and Ruslan Fedetenko round out the top 5.

Where are the big scorers, you ask? Malkin ranks 19th followed by Iginla at 20. The Sens’ Alfredsson and Heatley rank 33rd and 55th, respectively. Vincent Lecavelier ranks 54th.

PP Min/A



The Top 20 for PP Min/A is somewhat less surprising than PP Min/G. As expected, major assists guys like Savard, Henrik Sedin, Crosby, Lidstrom and Spezza, were in the top 10. However, sitting at 1st place is none other than Jamie Langenbrunner. Though his 10 PPA puts him 60th in that category, he only averages 1:30 of PP TOI/g and has played 20 games fewer than most of the leaders in this category.

PP Min/P



Langenbrunner also leads the league in PP Min/P average one point every 5:40 of PP TOI. In second, almost 2 minutes behind Langenbrunner, is Alex Kovalev who is tied with Ovechkin for PP points. Ovechkin, meanwhile, ranks 76th overall in PP min/P with only 25 power play points. As expected, Malkin and Crosby rank in the top 20. However, Spezza, Alfredsson, Heatley, Lecavalier, St. Louis and Iginla all do not qualify in the top 20.

In Thursday’s Numbers Game, I will examine the combined power play and even strength minutes per point statistic.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

Numbers Game - Even strength Minutes per point

In Tuesday’s Numbers Game, I looked at the minutes per point statistic as an indicator of player performance. However, as discussed, that statistic was misleading because it incorporated total time on ice into the equation. Players, like Martin St. Louis and Jarome Iginla, had higher minutes per point stats because they are used on the penalty kill as well. The purpose of the PK is obviously to prevent goals from being scored and not scoring them.

I proposed that a better indicator of player performance was Minutes per point in even strength situations, power play situations and combined even strength and power play. In today’s Numbers Game, I will look at even strength. Power Play and combined even strength and power play will follow next week.

Even Strength Goals (ES G)

The top 20 list of Minutes/ES G has some players that one would not necessarily expect. At the top of the list is Marek Svatos. His 23 ES G put him 5th overall in ES G but he only averages 12:40 of ES TOI/G. He scores an even strength goal approximately every 31 ES minutes. Ovechkin, who has the most ES G in the league, sits 3rd in Minutes/ES G. David Booth, that’s right the David Booth of the Florida Panthers, ranks 16th in the league in minutes/ES G. Daniel Cleary, who has resurrected his career with Red Wings, is 19th just ahead of Mats Sundin.

Even Strength Assists (ES A)

Martin St. Louis has the most ES A in the league, but he sits in 16th in minutes/ES A. Jason Spezza leads the league in minutes/ES A. Alexander Frolov is 26th in the league in ES A, but in only 14:02 of ES TOI/G, he ranks 10th in minutes/ES A.

Even Strength Points (ES P)

Jason Spezza also leads the league in minutes/ES P. Scoring every 16:59 in even strength situations, Spezza averages almost 1 even strength point/game. Gaborik sits in second almost a full minute behind. Ovechkin is first overall in ES P, but he ranks 8th in minutes/ES P. Paul Stastny, who is just returning to the Avs lineup after missing over a month, is in 11th place.

Stay tuned for further minutes per point analysis next week.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

Numbers Game: Rent-a-player

Brian Murray pulled off a trade yesterday that brought Stanley-cup winners, Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore to the Senators. Stillman is “that top 6 forward that the Sens have been missing in their previous playoff drives”, while Commodore will certainly compliment an already strong defensive group.

How many times have you heard the media refer to trade deadline acquisitions as “the missing piece” that are certain to make their new team solid contenders in the playoffs? Just last year, we saw Bill Guerin, Ryan Smyth, Gary Roberts, Keith Tkachuk, Peter Forsberg, Craig Conroy, and Mike Comrie switch teams near the trade deadline with the hopes that they would fill a void in the lineup.

How did these guys actually do in their new uniforms?
(Click on image to enlarge stats)


Bill Guerin scored less points per game when he was traded to the Sharks and in 9 playoff games, he only had 2 assists with a -3 rating. The Sharks lost in the second round to the Red Wings.

Gary Roberts scored more goals and points per game following his trade to the Penguins. He was also a strong contributor for the team in the playoffs, scoring 4 points in 5 games. However, the Pens lost in the first round to Sens.

Speaking of the Sens, they added Mike Comrie in early January. Comrie’s point production decreased in Ottawa during the season and he finished with only 6 points in the playoffs as the Sens fell one game short of winning the cup.

Ryan Smyth continued his strong play with the Islanders scoring nearly a point per game in the final stretch run of the season and in the Islanders’ short-lived playoffs. Ditto for Peter Forsberg with the Predators.

Keith Tkachuk joined the Thrashers hoping to win a cup. Those chances ended quickly after a 4 game sweep at the hands of the Rangers. Tkachuk, however, was consistent as he continued to produce .75 ppg.

Craig Conroy was brought back to the Flames with hopes that he would regain the chemistry he had with Iginla during the 2004 cup run. Conroy scored 21 points in the 28 games he played with the Flames, compared to only 16 points in 52 games with the Kings. However, he was nowhere to be found in the playoffs as the Flames lost in the first round in 6 games.

In sum, of these 7 “missing pieces”, 5 of them didn’t even make it past the first round with their new teams and only Mike Comrie, who cannot be credited with the Sens strong playoff drive, made it past the second round.

There are certainly many examples of players that are acquired at the deadline that end up playing pivotal roles. Just two years ago, Roloson and Samsonov were key figures in the Oilers unexpected cup run. However, one should certainly curb their optimism when your team has added “that missing piece.” That being said, I think the Stillman acquisition was an excellent move.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

Comparing Quinn and Maurice - Numbers Game

It is all but certain the John Ferguson Jr. will be fired some time in the immediate future. The Leafs have been mired in an awful slump with their last win in regulation being over a month ago. Reports have also surfaced that the players are no longer responding to their coach, Paul Maurice, so any new interim GM would likely fire Maurice as his first move.

While there could be endless debates about whether Maurice should get the axe, there is no disputing their paltry record and changes are clearly needed. However, while the team has not performed well, some players have certainly succeeded under Maurice’s guidance. Pat Quinn certainly could not get Alexei Ponikarovsky going and Mats Sundin is currently enjoying his best seasons since 96/97. Granted, Sundin has finally been paired with that prolific winger that he has been deprived of since he came to Toronto…. wait, my mistake… Jason Blake does not qualify.

In today’s Numbers Game, I looked at the production of some of the Leafs that played under both Quinn and Maurice (Mats Sundin, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Nik Antropov, Alexander Steen, Matt Stajan, Tomas Kaberle, Bryan McCabe and Chad Kilger) Specifically, I compared goals, assists and points per game (GPG, APG and PPG) and minutes per game (MPG).

So what is the verdict? Bryan McCabe is fairing no better under Maurice. In fact, his average PPG (0.57) is the exact same as under Quinn. Darcy Tucker and Alex Steen have, in fact, dropped in production while getting the same amount of playing time. Steen has been unable to regain his form that saw him amass 18 goals and 27 points in his rookie season under Quinn. As well, it appears that age is starting to become a factor for Tucker who just can not seem to find the scoresheet this year. Of course this happens in his first season after signing a contract extension.

Sundin, Kaberle, Stajan, and Kilger have all seen negligible increases in their point production. That increase can probably best be attributed to the fact that they are getting more playing time under Maurice with Stajan and Kaberle getting as much as 5.75 and 4.75 more minutes per game.

However, Maurice does appear to be getting the best out of Antropov and Ponikarovsky. Both translated more playing time into a significant increase in production. Antropov will, barring an injury (knock on wood), surpass his career high of 45 points this year, while Ponikarovsky enjoyed the best season of his career last year. The towering Russian forwards have increased their PPG by almost 0.3 points in the last two seasons. A critic could certainly argue though that Antropov and Ponikarovsky were very young when Quinn was the coach and now they have finally figured out how to utilize their skills in the NHL, irrespective of Maurice’s guidance.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not suggesting that Maurice is completely to blame for the failure of the Leafs. In order to get the best out of players, it certainly helps to surround them with skilled linemates and that’s where Ferguson comes in. Quinn, as well, without question had the luxury of coaching much better teams. Starting in goal, CUJO and Belfour gave the Leafs a very good chance to win every night. Moreover, there was enough talent that Chad Kilger never had to play on the top 2 lines.

Changes are clearly needed for the Leafs and whether deserving or not, one of those changes will like cost Maurice his job. The Leafs just can’t win and the playoffs are a long shot, even in the Eastern conference. The truth is no matter who coaches this current group of players, they are going to have a very difficult time enjoying any kind of success!

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin

Leaf's Stats (Click on image to enlarge)

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Numbers Game: PIM

Last year, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks led the league in penalties amassing 1457 PIM on their way to the franchise's first Stanley Cup victory. However, one would expect that teams that have trouble staying out of the box are more likely to lose because they are more often shorthanded. So does the Ducks success despite their high PIM represent an abnormality or is there no correlation between wins and PIM?

Click on image to enlarge:


There is, in fact, a fairly strong correlation between PIM and wins. Teams that finished below the league average in PIM, had almost 7 more wins and 13 more points compared to teams above the league average. Further, teams in the bottom 10 in points had almost 150 more PIM compared to teams in the Top 10 in points.

Looking at the team stats for this year, I am not convinced that a correlation between PIM and wins will exist at season's end. To date, the least penalized teams include the Kings, Sabres, Bruins, Blues and Islanders. And, for the record, the Ducks are leading the league again in PIM.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.