FROZEN ASSETS

To Win the Conference or to Win the Cup (2)?

Welcome to Frozen Assets. Last week I examined whether parity in the standings led to parity in Stanley Cup odds. There were numerous examples of teams that were either overvalued or undervalued when the odds on them to win the Stanley Cup were compared to their point totals.

Reflecting on last week's article I realized that parity does not exist in the NHL; parity exists within each conference. In inter-conference play the East is 46-52-11 while the West dominates at 63-36-10. Additionally, there is only one dominant team in the NHL this year, and they are in the Western Conference.

How do sportsbooks react to disparity between conferences in the NHL? One would think that odds on Eastern Conference teams to win the Stanley Cup would be more than double the odds to win the Conference. In the West (generally) odds on teams to win the Stanley Cup other than Detroit should be double or less than double their odds to win the conference.

Are they?

Note: If you choose to bet on a team...

Ari recommends you bet on that team to win the Conference

Ari recommends you bet on that team to win the Stanley Cup

*Implied Finals Odds (IFO) is the implied line on a team to win the Stanley Cup should they advance to the final according to the best odds available on each team to win the Conference and the Stanley Cup. For example, if a team is +4000 to win the Conference and +8000 to win the Stanley Cup their IFO is +100.

Eastern Conference


Team……......PPG.......Best Conf. Odds...Best Cup Odds.........Implied Finals Odds*

Ottawa…...........1.26……+225 (Olympic)....….....+614 (WSEX)…......(+173)....

Montreal…....…1.24…….+950 (5dimes)…...........+2500 (5dimes)…....(+178)....

Philadelphia......1.23….…+800 (Ladbrokes)........+1859 (Pinnacle)........(+132)....

New Jersey...….1.19……+900 (Gamebookers)....+2111 (Pinnacle)…....(+135)....

Pittsburgh……...1.19…...+900 (Gamebookers)....+2250 (Olympic)........(+150)....

Boston…………1.11…...+2550 (Olympic)…........+5400 (Betfair).........(+112)....

Buffalo………...1.08…...+4050 (Olympic)…........+8050 (Olympic)......(-101)....

New York (R)….1.07…...+1415 (Olympic) ..........+3050 (Olympic)......(+116)....

Washington....…1.04…...+4050 (Olympic)…........+8000 (Canbet).........(-102)....

New York (I).….1.00……+4000 (Stan James).....+8000 (Bet365)..........(+100)...

Florida.........…...1.00……+5000 (Stan James)....+16000 (Betfair)..........(+220)....

Atlanta………...1.00….....+4000 (Stan James).....+6600 (Betfred)..........(-165)....

Carolina…..…...1.00.…...+1815 (Olympic)…........+4561 (Pinnacle)......(+152)....

Toronto……......0.92…….+10000 (Stan James)......+15000 (Stan James).(-150)....

Tampa Bay…....0.91….…+7000 (Stan James).......+13000 (Bet365)........(-116)....

Average.............1.08............................................................................(+122)....


Western Conference

Team….…....PPG…..Best Odds……......Best Cup Odds............Implied Finals Odds*

Detroit……..1.56…...+145 (Olympic)…......+350 (5dimes).............(+141)....

San Jose…....1.23…...+900 (Stan James).....+1400 (Gamebookers)..(-155)....

Minnesota.....1.21…..+1400 (Gamebookers).+2550 (Olympic).........(-122)....

Dallas....…....1.21…..+1600 (Betfred)….......+2500 (Ladbrokes)......(-178)....

Calgary……..1.15…...+1600 (Gamebookers)..+2550 (Olympic).......(-168)....

Colorado…....1.15…...+2200 (Gamebookers)..+4550 (Pinnacle)......(+107)....

Nashville.......1.13…...+3300 (Gamebookers)..+6600 (5Dimes).........(+100)....

Phoenix….....1.11……+6600 (Ladbrokes)…+12500 (Ladbrokes)…...(+100)....

Anaheim…....1.11…....+645 (Olympic)…....+1015 (Olympic)...........(-174)....

Vancouver.....1.09…....+1615 (Olympic)….…+3050 (Olympic).........(-113)....

St. Louis........1.06...….+5000 (Gamebookers)..+10000 (Carib)…......(+100)....

Columbus…..1.04….…+5000 (Carib)……....+11000 (Betfair)...........(+120)....

Edmonton…..0.98….…+10000 (Gamebookers).+15000 (Betfred).......(-150)....

Chicago….....0.96….…+7000 (Stan James)…...+13000 (Bet365)…....(-116)....

Los Angeles..0.85…....+35000 (Stan James).….+62500 (Bet365)........(-127)....

Average........1.12.............................................................................(-122)....


From a wagering perspective, if your research indicates a team is likely to be successful, make sure that you are determining which odds, conference or championship are more favorable. If you are not able to determine which odds are better, the tiebreaker is to take them to win the conference.

Betting conference odds will allow you more flexibility in managing your risk. For example, if you are fortunate enough to win your conference futures bet and you think your team should win the Stanley Cup then you can put some or all of your winnings on that team to win the Stanley Cup. If you took the team to win the Stanley Cup and they lose in the finals then you don’t win anything...but you will have built character.


For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen

About the writer: Ari-Baum Cohen's first sports betting victory came at age 8 when he won his father's office pool. He screamed like a 14 year-old girl at an Elvis concert when Tampa Bay (had at +3500 to win Cup) and Calgary (had at +15000 to win Cup) made the Stanley Cup finals.

January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

News You Can Use Late in the Day

1. Scott Burnside profiles Bruce Boudreau and the Capitals as they drive for a playoff spot.
2. David Amber interviews Alexander Ovechkin.
3. John Ferguson Jr. has joined Team Canada as a scout.
4. Defying all possible logic, Darren Dreger thinks the Oilers might be buyers at the deadline.
5. Dreger follows up with his list of 10 Players likely to move at the deadline.
6. Jim Kelley says the Oilers need to try harder. Why isn't this guy coaching in the NHL?
7. Mike Toth calls for a federal inquiry into the skyrocketing cost of ice-time in Canada.
8. Puck That Hit gives us their list of the 10 Best Names in Hockey.
9. Tony Esposito has been named a Blackhawks ambassador.
10. Princeton Tigers forward Landis Stankievech is a Rhodes Scholar. I assume that means he spends his summers at Damien Rhodes' goaltending school?
11. Winkler, Manitoba will play host to this year's Hockey Day in Canada.
12. Crashing the Net looks at USA Hockey's NDTP.
13. Marc Savard hopes to join the Canadian Tour when his hockey career is over.
14. Mike Zigomanis is making the most of his demotion to San Antonio.
15. The Kelowna Rockets are considering adding forward Brock Trotter to their roster after Trotter was dismissed from Denver University.
16. Tom Glavine is still involved with hockey in the Atlanta area.
17. Russian hockey greats Slava Fetisov and Vlad Tretiak put their endorsement behind the new Continental Hockey League. In Soviet Russia, league endorses you.
18. Brian Costello looks at the mathematics involved in winning the draft lottery.
19. The Toronto Star tells us that the NHL salary cap is set to rise again next year, to the tune of about $3 million dollars, meaning that the Leafs can sign another 30 yr old plus defenseman to a 5 year deal.
20. Joe Juneau is coaching hockey in Nunavik. Also note that he holds a degree in Aeronautical Engineering from RPI.
21. Is Daryl Katz Batman?
22. San Jose acquired defenseman JD Forrest (who?) from the Carolina Hurricanes today.
23. The latest Hockey News installment on the Roseau Rams.
24. Former USHL'er Teddy Purcell is tearing up the AHL.
25. Parts One and Two of Mark Seidel's draft preview.

Mid-Afternoon Injury News

Just a couple of tidbits that may be of interest to fans and poolies:

• Marty Turco (sore neck) is not accompanying the Stars to Minnesota for their game against the Wild tonight.
• Ducks forward Samuel Pahlsson (abdominal inflamation) may return to the team's lineup either tonight in New York but more likely for tomorrow's game in New Jersey.
• Bruins forward Peter Schaeffer (shin contusion) is out for tomorrow night's game at Buffalo.
• Glen Murray (hip flexor) is expected to be a game-time decision for tomorrow night's game against the Sabres.
• Mark Parrish (concussion) is still not ready to return to the Wild lineup.
• Josh Harding (illness) most likely will not back up Niklas Backstrom tonight against Dallas.
• Dany Heatley (separated shoulder) is returning to the Senators lineup tonight when they take on the Panthers.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

NHL Morning Papers (Thursday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

• Dave Shoalts of the Globe & Mail says there is still some hope for the Leafs to be able to trade players with no-trade contracts.
• New Oilers owner Daryl Katz got to where he is by being bold, and he is not about to change his style now, writes Alan Maki of the Globe & Mail.
• Mark Spector of the National Post provides readers with a couple of scouts' perspectives on the current state of the Maple Leafs.
• David Yates has a great feature article on former NHL'er Joe Juneau in this morning's Montreal Gazette.
• Lois Kalchman has an inspiring story about Jason Blake and his new friend, in this morning's Toronto Star.

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

• Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution takes a closer look at all five teams competing in the Southeast Division.
• Panthers forward Richard Zednik has finally broken out of his prolonged slump, and the team is now hoping he can provide more secondary scoring. Panthers coach Jacques Martin doesn't mind his team fighting for a purpose, but he doesn't approve of fighting with nothing to gain.
• Habs coach Guy Carbonneau has demoted Chris Higgins to the team's fourth line for tonight's game versus the Maple Leafs.
• Sabres coach Lindy Ruff changed it up in the shootout by calling Henrik Tallinder's number as the second shooter and he didn't disappoint as Buffalo defeated the Devils 3-2 at the HSBC Arena. There were fifteen scouts in Buffalo last night to watch the Sabres face-off against the Devils.
• The Devils finally lost a shootout to Buffalo last night 3-2, ruining their perfect 3-0 shootout record against the Sabres this season. Brian Gionta is sick of facing Ryan Miller in the shootout, as last night was their fourth shootout matchup this season.
• The Islanders will be without Miroslav Satan for tonight's game versus the Penguins and possibly longer, writes Erik Boland of Newsday.
• "He's on the puck, his puck pressure, a lot of battles won, blocking shots ... look who I have on the ice in the final 22 seconds," said Lightning coach John Tortorella about forward Craig MacDonald.
• Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star says the new Leafs GM may be in luck, as the salary cap is expected to rise at least $3 million for next season. While McGran is fairly positive, Damien Cox of the Star says the Leafs too easily accept losing.
• Petteri Nokelainen isn't happy sitting in the press box, and wants to do whatever it takes to get back on the ice for the Bruins, writes Fluto Shinwaza of the Boston Globe. For the players that are in the lineup, coach Claude Julien wants them to go to the dirty areas more often. (Writer's note: I'm pretty sure this is the third article I have linked this season about the Bruins needing to go hard to the net.)
• Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford considers himself a buyer rather than a seller coming up on the February 26th trade deadline.
• Sean Avery and Marek Malik made Rangers practice more interesting yesterday by dropping the gloves and going at it.
• With last night's victory over the Flyers, the Capitals now find themselves in first place in the Southeast Division, writes Tarik El-Bashir of the Washington Post.
• In Pittsburgh, defenseman Ryan Whitney understands that playing for coach Michel Therrien comes with lots of criticism, and he is used to it by now, writes Shelly Anderson of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. On the stat sheet, goaltender Ty Conklin has finally played enough games to show up on the NHL official statistical leaders.
• The Flyers are expecting a decision from Peter Forsberg by the weekend, but on the ice, the team lost 4-3 at home to the Capitals last night.

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

• Morgan Cook of the Orange County Register has the story of the Ducks' day at the White House.
• Calgary GM Darryl Sutter said he could keep all his UFA's for next season if he wants to, and they want to return. The Flames have quite a foursome of players locked up for the long haul, writes Jean Lefebvre of the Calgary Herald.
• The Jackets are going to rely on struggling backup netminder Fredrik Norrena for the next two games versus Phoenix and San Jose as Pascal Leclaire is on the shelf with a sprained neck. Off the ice, the Jackets did lockup speedster Jason Chimera to a four-year contract extension. Here are the probable lines for Columbus tonight.
• Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News has a good story about the evolution of Brenden Morrow as a goal-scorer.
• You won't see Mike Babcock getting overly excited about the Red Wings record so far this season. Even though the Wings are rolling, they would like to get Jiri Hudler back on track as the youngster has been slumping lately.
• Mike Modano is going to be honored tonight in Minnesota and Michael Russo of the Star Tribune has a profile of the highest scoring American born player of all-time.
• Sharks coach Ron Wilson said some of his players just didn't come to play last night and his team paid for it with a 3-1 home loss to the Avalanche.
• "They haven't won much here for about three years, and we've been trying to change that. Is that a culture issue? I don't think our issues are physical, so are they environmental? I'm not sure." That was the quote by Blues coach Andy Murray in response to his team's recent slump.
• Even with a number of their players edging closer to a return from injury, the Hawks lost their fifth straight game last night 4-1 at Edmonton; making the playoffs look that much farther away.
• The Avalanche were more than happy to have Jose Theodore back between the pipes last night, as the veteran netminder turned aside 30 shots in leading his team to a 3-1 road victory at San Jose. In other Avs news, the team is still in the hunt for Peter Forsberg.
• Since Shawn Horcoff went down for the season, and everyone wrote off the Oilers slim playoff chances, the team has responded by going 2-0 after last night's 4-1 victory over Chicago. GM Kevin Lowe is looking forward to the Daryl Katz era, writes Joanne Ireland of the Edmonton Journal.
• Even though the Predators' top line is rolling, the team needs secondary scoring from the likes of Radek Bonk if it wants to solidify its playoff standing. In injury news, Jordin Tootoo was back on the ice yesterday by himself, but there is no timetable yet for his return.
• Jim Gintonio has the story of Rick Tocchet's return to the Coyotes coaching staff in this morning's Arizona Republic.
• The Canucks continue to try and weather the storm until they get their defensemen back healthy, writes Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Province. Apparently the Canucks remain one of Peter Forsberg's possible destinations.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Email any thoughts, ideas or suggestions to illegalcurve@gmail.com

News You Can Use Late in the Day

1. Damien Cox with his list of 5 teams that have surprised him this year.
2. Celine Dion Phaneuf has signed a 6 year extension with the Calgary Flames, guaranteeing that they will boast the ugliest man in hockey until 2013.
3. Dany Heatley is expected to return to the Senators lineup on Thursday.
4. Peter Forsberg and his one good ankle reject offers from the Stars, Wings and Flames. Look for him to hop on over to the Senators.
5. Nathan Gerbe is a contender for the Hobey Baker, according to INCH.
6. Bob McKenzie dispels any myths that Marian Hossa is heading for Montreal.
7. Fabian Brunstrom and a couple of Linus' headline the top Swedish free agents. Good grief.
8. Adam Schwartz breaks down 5 successful trades that brought in role players.
9. The NHL Insider takes a look at Roberto Luongo and Tomas Vokoun.
10. A recap of all things NHL for the week that was.
11. A look around the CHL from Sportsnet.
12. Taking Note gives us a summary of the WHL Board of Governors meetings, which included a suggestion of a salary cap for off-ice employees.
13. BlackAthlete.net says that hockey doesn't need a "Tiger Woods" type player.
14. Proving that the end may be nigh, Mike Brophy makes sense.
15. Lincoln Stars forward Ryan Kretzer is making the most of his opportunity.
16. Sean Avery and Marek Malik exchange blows (thats what she said) at Rangers practice. Maybe Malik stole some of Avery's fashion mags.
17. Fanhouse hearts George Parros' mustache.
18. Check out this series of posts by Kerry Goulet, detailing his trip through Russia.
19. Allan Muir of SI thinks that the late season additions to the Ducks could do more harm than good.
20. John Buccigross asks NFL fans to give the NHL a shot.
21. The new European hockey league is one step closer to fruition.
22. Interesting article about the possibility of hockey returning to Baltimore.
23. Kyle Wellwood's career is in freefall.
24. Despite trading their captain and starting goalie, the London Knights just keep winning.
25. An exhibit of Maurice Richard items will be making its way to Newfoundland and Labrador.

NHL Morning Papers (Wednesday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

• Coyotes coach Wayne Gretzky is glad to be getting Rick Tocchet back in the coaching fold starting tomorrow night, writes Eric Duhatschek of the Globe & Mail.
• Daryl Katz was finally able to close the deal to purchase the Edmonton Oilers, writes Alan Maki of the Globe & Mail.
• Fabian Brunnstrom is generating interest from all around the NHL, writes Kevin Allen of USA Today.
• Damien Cox of the Toronto Star profiles the humble Nicklas Lidstrom.

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

• Even the return of Ilya Kovalchuk couldn't change the Thrashers fortunes against the Flyers, as Atlanta was defeated 3-2 at home by Philadelphia. Off the ice, Thrashers coach/GM Don Waddell maintains that his number one goal is to sign Marian Hossa.
• "Looking back at the game, it was more of one team hungrier than the other and one team playing with more desperation than the other," said Bruins coach Claude Julien about his team's 4-2 home loss to the Sabres last night. Bruins defenseman Dennis Wideman had an off game last night, but he wasn't about to avoid taking responsibility for his poor play. On the concussion front, the Bruins have looked into a new concussion therapy, and are still holding out hope for a Patrice Bergeron return this season.
• The Sabres completed their seven game road trip with a 4-2 win at Boston, and successfully finished the road trip with a 4-2-1 record. Even though he doesn't play many minutes, that does not mean that Adam Mair's contributions to the Sabres are overlooked by the coaching staff, writes Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News.
• The Hurricanes didn't play a bad road game, they just gave up one 3-on-1 chance and it ended up in the back of their net, leading to a 1-0 loss to the Predators. To make matters worse, the team lost forward Chad Larose to a broken leg.
• "We just weren't ready to go," said Rangers forward Chris Drury after his team's 4-2 home loss to the Kings. The mood in the Rangers locker room after the game was one of sheer disappointment, writes John Dellapina of the NY Daily News.
• Flyers coach John Stevens was aware of Antero Nittymaki's success versus Atlanta and Kari Lehtonen so he did not hesitate to call the Finnish netminder's number for the Flyers 3-2 victory last night in Atlanta. The Flyers are still searching for a winger to play alongside Daniel Briere and Simon Gagne. Forget the new Flyers, Sam Donnellon of the Philadelphia Daily News has an interesting piece on former Flyers netminder Ron Hextall.
• Nathan Smith is currently up with the Penguins filling-in for the team's injured players; so he is fully aware that he is on an everyday tryout. In other Penguins news, defenseman Kris Letang is making a concerted effort to shoot more.
• The Capitals dominated the second and third periods, to come from behind and defeat the Blue Jackets 4-3 at Nationwide Arena last night.
• The Panthers absolutely demolished the Maple Leafs last night in Toronto by a score of 8-0. While the dominant victory was good news for the Cats, the team did receive bad news when it heard that Jozef Stumpel will be lost to the team for 4-6 weeks.
• Unlike their game against the Rangers on Sunday, the Habs were able to hold on to their lead last night as they defeated the Senators 4-3 to move within one point of the division lead.
• The Devils hope they play well enough tonight so that they don't have to have coach Brent Sutter yell at them between periods, writes Rich Chere of the Newark Star Ledger.
• Not only did the Islanders lose 3-0 to the Ducks last night, but they also may have lost winger Miroslav Satan after he aggravated a right knee injury, writes Greg Logan of Newsday.
• The Senators lost 4-3 to the Habs last night and the team's recent play has Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun wondering if the team needs to trade for a number one netminder. Garrioch lists a number of players the team may be willing to dangle in trade offers. Meanwhile, Christopher Higgins of the Canadiens has admitted that his team has set a goal of passing the Senators for first place in the Northeast Division.
• The Lightning picked up their first victory in St. Louis in sixteen years last night, with a 5-4 win. Lightning winger Andre Roy was a healthy scratch for last night's game for disciplinary reasons.
• "Everyone should be ashamed," said Leafs captain Mats Sundin after last night's embarrassing 8-0 loss at home to Florida. Meanwhile, Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star discusses the free-fall of Kyle Wellwood from top-line projections to the press box.

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

• While Teemu Selanne didn't score in his Ducks return, he did provide the team with a much needed boost as they defeated the Islanders 3-0 on Long Island. With a victory under their belts, the team now heads to the White House, writes Jeff Miller of the Orange County Register.
• Most people may be counting out the Blackhawks for a playoff run, but Hawks GM Dale Tallon still has faith his team can put it together for a run to the post-season, writes Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune.
• The Avalanche are expected to have Jose Theodore back between the pipes tonight versus San Jose, and center Paul Stastny back on Saturday versus Vancouver. Adrian Dater of the Denver Post has a great article on what a good guy Joe Sakic is.
• Jonathan Huntington of the Edmonton Sun is looking forward to getting to know new Oilers owner Daryl Katz at his press conference today. On the ice, it looks like the Oilers are considering shutting down Sheldon Souray for the season.
• The Coyotes wasted a terrific effort from rookie Peter Mueller last night by blowing a 3-0 lead in the third period and losing to Calgary 4-3 in a shootout. In more bad news for the Coyotes, the team will be without rookie Martin Hanzal for 2-4 weeks.
• Needing to put together a string of wins, the Blues instead lost to the Lightning, the worst road team in the NHL, at home last night 5-4. On the injury front, Blues forward Martin Rucinsky is close to returning to the lineup.
• The Flames, on the back of Jarome Iglinla's Gordie Howe hat-trick, came from down 3-0 to defeat the Coyotes 4-3 in a shootout last night."Up 3-0, there's no way we should lose that game," said Coyotes captain Shane Doan after the contest.
• The Stars defeated the defenseless Canucks last night 3-2 in a shootout, and extended their win streak to four straight games, writes Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News. While the team won last night, the Stars will not win the Peter Forsberg sweepstakes as he rejected the team's offer yesterday.
• The Wings got the game-winner last night from an unlikely source as defenseman Brett Lebda scored in overtime on a cross-ice pass from Henrik Zetterberg to help the Wings defeated the Wild in St. Paul. The Wings did not win last night's game without a bit of luck, writes Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press.
• "I thought we played our best game of the year," said Wild coach Jacques Lemaire after his team's heartbreaking 3-2 overtime loss to the Wings on home-ice. The Wild may have found a perfect fit for the third member of the Gaborik-Demitra line, writes Michael Russo of the Star Tribune.
• Ryan Clowe is itching to get back on the ice and help the Sharks solidify their spot in the Western Conference standings, but he's not about to rush his rehab and suffer a setback.
• The Predators are finding different ways to win, and last night was a prime example, with a 1-0 defensive victory over the visiting Hurricanes.
• Last night's shootout loss to the Stars carried with it lots of positives, writes Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Province. The Vancouver Canucks may have lost last night, but they still appear to be in the running to sign Peter Forsberg.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Email any thoughts, ideas or suggestions to illegalcurve@gmail.com

Tuesday Editorial: Why is trading so rare in the NHL?

With the NHL trade deadline less than three weeks away and trade rumours at a season-high, hockey fans are all wondering when the first chip will fall. Fans are probably more eager than ever to see a few transactions across the NHL, since, unlike years past, this season has seen little to no player movement. Now, I am not here to provide you with an abundance of trade rumours because there are more than enough websites out there that focus entirely on that topic; rather, I am here to examine why there is such a dearth of player movement in the game today. Looking more closely, I will present the two main arguments you will usually hear as the reasons for this lack of movement. First, I will assess the argument that the lack of NHL trading is due mainly to the $50.3 per team salary cap, which limits player spending and, as a result, doesn’t allow for players to be traded. Secondly, I will examine the argument that parity is the main reason for the lack of movement. Finally, I will decide which of these arguments holds more merit.

First argument: NHL trades are rare because teams have to fit their rosters to a strict $50.3 million cap leaving little or no money for other transactions

After the NHL lost the 2004/05 season to a lockout, the league finally got the hard cap it so desired heading into the 2005/06 season. While the hard cap has rose by more than $10 million since its inception, the cap still limits many teams in their spending ability. The large market teams that were well above the current cap limit prior to the lockout are believed to be close to the salary cap ceiling this season. When these teams head into the season with “allegedly” all their cap room spent, the misperception exists that teams only have the option of trading salary-for-salary in a trade. Salary for salary trades are most common in NBA basketball, and are rarer on the hockey landscape. The rarity of these transactions isn’t difficult to see. Think about how difficult it was to make a trade even pre-lockout; you still had to agree on players, draft picks, etc. With the salary cap, not only do you need to agree on take into account the aforementioned issues, but you also have to take player salaries into account when completing a transaction. Taking all these factors into account, the public may get the impression that trading really looks mighty difficult. However, once you take a closer look at the facts, the picture will appear to be far clearer.

Examining the NHL team-by-team cap numbers (courtesy of NHLSCAP.com) one will realize that only two teams have less than $1 million left: the Maple Leafs and the Flyers. Further, only one team has between $1-$2 million dollars in cap space: the Vancouver Canucks. Therefore, only three teams have less than $2 million dollars in cap space remaining. On top of that, only five teams are between $2-$3 million dollars in cap space. Altogether, that means only one third of NHL teams are within $3 million dollars of the salary cap, while the rest have more space to maneuver. If lack of salary space is such a problem, why do two thirds of NHL teams have enough to make a deal? This leads us into our alternative argument.

Second argument: NHL trades are not so commonplace because most teams are in or close to a playoff spot

As I wrote last week in my Tuesday Editorial, the NHL playoff race is as close as ever. Looking at the race this week, not much has changed. There are only four teams in the entire NHL that are more than six points out of a playoff spot, with just under 30 games remaining for each team. Think about that for a second; 26 NHL teams are in or within a short winning streak of the playoffs.

When trading takes place, the easiest trades to consummate are those between haves and have not’s. That option, however, is less readily present in the parity-ridden NHL. There are hardly, if any, proverbial sellers at this point. Furthermore, if there are only four to six sellers right now, why would any of those sellers deal off their assets before the trade deadline, a time which will most likely result in increased offers? In short, they won’t.

Trades between two playoff teams, or teams striving for a playoff spot, aren’t very common because GM’s generally don’t like to see their former players come back to haunt them. Thus, they generally avoid trading intra-conference. As a result, their options are cut in half, limiting them offers from teams who don’t play in their conference. Small-scale trades like last year’s deal of Aaron Ward for Paul Mara are more likely than intra-conference than a blockbuster.

Which argument is better?

Both arguments have their merits. In fact, some might argue the two arguments are anything but mutually exclusive (seeing as how the salary cap is the reason for parity in the first place). Also, I realize that some teams work within their own self-imposed budget; however, those figures are difficult to obtain from these organizations and, thus, provides me with little, if any, way to have included those numbers in this analysis. Having said all that, examining these two issues separately seems to reveal that NHL teams trade less these days due to their belief that they can compete for a playoff spot, and advance once there, rather than due to the limits that cap constrains place upon them.

For Illegal Curve, I’m Richard Pollock.
illegalcurve@gmail.com

News You Can Use Late in the Day

1. James Mirtle with a post on David Brine, the first graduate of Making the Cut to skate in the NHL.
2. The weekly release from the USHL.
3. The Avalanche have recalled Michael Wall.
4. Kukla discusses the upcoming trade deadline, specifically the value of rumours.
5. Alex Pietrangelo is drawing comparisons to Chris Pronger. I assume this means he is "friendly" with local tv reporters, has a nasty gap in his teeth and has had Oiler fans burn his baby furniture.
6. Bryan McCabe may return to the Leafs lineup by Thursday night, thus reclaiming his role as lead pylon.
7. The NHL's Junior Report interviews USHL president Gino Gasparini.
8. The ECHL Report you have all been waiting for.
9. Fabian Brunstrom has NHL GM's all aflutter.
10. BC defeats BU to advance to the Beanpot final to face Harvard. How do you like them apples?
11. The Forechecker explores the myth that goalies get better if they are facing more shots.
12. Taking Note details the suspensions and fines handed down by the WHL for last Friday's fights.
13. Maple Leafs' forward Robbie Earl credits Wayne Gretzky for getting him interested in hockey.
14. Scott Morrison details the calamity that has been the Oilers' season.
15. Jim Kelley is pissed off at the Peter Forsberg situation.
16. The Clutch Factor adds more formulas to the way fans look at the NHL.
17. The New York Times suggests that Nike (and likely Bush-Cheney) were ultimately responsible for their own downfall in the hockey market.
18. A slow hockey news day has brought us the story that elite hockey players sweat more.
19. The Phoenix Coyotes have sent Daniel Carcillo to the minors for a wake up call.
20. The University of New Brunswick is the class of Canadian men's college hockey.
21. Dr. Hockey with his list of the 10 Players most likely to be traded at the deadline.
22. Paul Friesen wonders if the asking price for an NHL team has put Winnipeg out of the running for a new team.
23. Proving that he can use complete sentences, Chris Pronger offers advice for Gary Bettman.
24. Kyle Okposo is featured in this week's hot list.
25. Actual Headline: "Oilers Suffer Big Blow". If I "suffered" big blow's as often as the Oilers, I doubt you could wipe a smile off my face.

NHL Morning Papers (Tuesday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

• Brian Milner of the Globe & Mail has further details on the story reported by Rick Westhead of the Toronto Star yesterday that the NHLPA has hired a forensic accountant to examine NHL franchises.
• Steve Yzerman has aspirations of running the Canadian men's Olympic entry at the 2010 games in Vancouver, writes Tim Wharnsby of the Globe & Mail.
• Mark Spector of the National Post believes that Curtis Joseph is the perfect backup goaltender.
• Mike Brehm of USA Today thinks that Alexander Ovechkin has surged into the lead for the Hart Trophy.
• Mike Babcock is a big fan of the way the New England Patriots run their organization and was disappointed that the Pats couldn't make 19-0 on Sunday, writes Damien Cox of the Toronto Star.

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

• Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star discusses the possibility that a number of Leafs veterans won't waive their no-trade clauses. In positive Leafs news, defenseman Bryan McCabe could be ready to return to the lineup for Thursday night's game versus the Habs.
• The Senators frustrations are starting to boil over, writes Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun. In positive news for Sens fans, apparently the team is on Peter Forsberg's short-list for teams he would sign with, if he decides to return to the NHL.
• The Islanders keep getting worse news, as forward Mike Sillinger has been lost to the club for three weeks with a hip injury.
• The Devils responded to a Brent Sutter motivational speech at the second intermission and came back to defeat the Penguins 4-3 in overtime. Devils tough-guy Arron Asham was a healthy scratch last night.
• The Panthers are hoping to get Ville Peltonen in their lineup by this weekend, but will now be without Jozef Stumpel and Radek Dvorak for substantial periods of time.
• Carey Price is back with Les Habitants and could very well start for the team Thursday versus the Leafs. Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen believes the Canadiens are true contenders.
• The Lightning has not packed it in for this season, and still believe they can make the playoffs, writes Carter Gaddis of the Tampa Tribune.
• In Atlanta, Coach Don Waddell says it is unlikely that Ilya Kovalchuk will suit up tonight versus the Flyers.
• Bruins rookie Vladimir Sobotka hasn't scored a goal yet this season, but is contributing in other ways, writes Barbara Matson of the Boston Globe. The Bruins have their eyes on Lord Stanley's Cup, even if most people don't believe they have a chance, writes Stephen Harris of the Boston Herald.
• The Hurricanes have put Saturday's loss to Pittsburgh behind them and have shifted their collective focus towards defeating the streaking Predators in Nashville tonight.
• The Rangers won three straight games on the road, but Jaromir Jagr didn't tally a point, so Tim Bontemps of the NY Post thinks he's due to breakout. Tom Renney defended Jagr to the media yesterday. In injury news, Brendan Shanahan might not return until February 16th because of a number of ailments.
• Joffrey Lupul thought he'd be ready to play this week, but now doctors are telling him he will be out another five games.
• After gaining a point in their 4-3 overtime loss to the Devils, the team is now tied for first place in the Atlantic Division, however, the way they blew a 3-1 lead at New Jersey left a sour taste in their mouth. In the Pens dressing room, Boston native Ryan Whitney was hearing it from his teammates about the NY Giants upset victory.
• The Capitals have recalled Eric Fehr from the AHL and are hoping he provides them with a boost in the points department.
• Sabres netminder Ryan Miller will be between the pipes tonight as his squad takes on the Bruins. So much for the return of Maxim Afinogenov as the speedy Russian winger had a setback with his injured groin at practice and will miss more time.

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

• The Ducks are expecting to have Teemu Selanne in the lineup tonight when they face-off against the Islanders on Long Island.
• The Ducks neighbours in Southern California take on the Rangers tonight at Madison Square Garden.
• The Stars are getting tremendous productivity from Matt Niskanen and Niklas Grossman, and the two youngsters are flying under the radar of most NHL fans, writes Mike Hieka of the Dallas Morning News. The Stars take on the Canucks tonight, here is a preview.
• If Dan Cleary really wants to stay in Detroit, he most likely will have to sign for below market value, writes Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. George Sipple of the Free Press tells readers that two Red Wings are on track for some post-season awards.
• Wild coach Jacques Lemaire won't even think of separating Marian Gaborik and Pavol Demitra if they continue to play like they currently are, writes Michael Russo of the Star Tribune.
• John Glennon of the Tennessean has the back-stroy behind the Arnott-Radulov-Dumont line, which has been on a tear since being reunited. The Predators play the Hurricanes tonight, here is a preview.
• Mark Emmons of the San Jose Mercury News is reporting that the Sharks will be without defenseman Douglas Murray for at least a week.
• Blues coach Andy Murray says his team needs to win 20 of their last 31 games to make the playoffs in the Western Conference. Blues goaltender Manny Legace is bitter about his Saturday performance against the Avalanche and is looking to rebound tonight at home versus the Lightning.
• The Flames came out flat against the Horcoff-less Oilers and were on the losing end of a 5-0 score at Rexall Place last night. The Flames didn't give Curtis Joseph any help in his Flames debut writes Steve Macfarlane of the Calgary Sun.
• Even with the loss of Shawn Horcoff, the Oilers showed no signs of panic last night, writes John MacKinnon of the Edmonton Journal. With most pundits writing them off, the Oilers don't think they are out of the playoff race just yet.
• The Coyotes rode Radim Vrbata to a come from behind 4-3 overtime victory over the Avalanche last night, writes Jim Gintonio of the Arizona Republic. In other Coyotes news, Rick Tocchet returns to the bench on Thursday and Commissioner Gary Bettman says it is time to move on.
• Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Province runs down the man games lost for the Canucks defense corps this season.
• Avalanche coach Joel Quenville was disappointed with the officiating in last night's 4-3 overtime at home to Phoenix. Meanwhile, it looks like Denver is among the cities being considered to host the next outdoor game.
• The Blue Jackets were hoping to streak out of the All-Star break but, instead, have lost three in a row and now the team has a bad case of the bronchitis. The Jackets host the Capitals tonight; here are the projected lines for Columbus.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Email any thoughts, ideas or suggestions to illegalcurve@gmail.com

THE AHL REPORT

Writers Note: The AHL Report normally appears Sundays, but because of Super Bowl XVII, today's article falls on a Monday. My apologies to all the hardcore puckheads out there!

With a myriad of long-term injuries hitting teams across the National Hockey League, an increasing number of players in the AHL are finding regular ice time with their affiliate teams. Here is a look at some of said players:

- Tomas Plihal, San Jose Sharks. Plihal was recalled from Worcester a few weeks back when veteran forward Curtis Brown was placed on injured reserve and has done a pretty decent job in spot duty. The 24-year-old Czech center only has one goal in five games but may continue to get ice time as his skating ability and offensive skill make him a good utility forward for the Sharks.

- Derek Meech, Detroit Red Wings. The defenceman from the River City (Winnipeg, Manitoba for you non-Winnipeggers) has done a commendable job in 13 games with the Wings. He may not show up on the scoresheet this season but he is getting valuable big league experience. Meech has limited offensive potential but is a good skater and will continue to be the teams No.6 defenseman as Niklas Kronvall is still injured.

- Vladimir Sobotka, Boston Bruins. The 20-year-old Czech center has played 23 games for Boston this season, registering no goals and two assists. A long-term injury to Patrice Bergeron has led to a lengthy role on the team's 4th line for Sobotka as Phil Kessel and Glen Metropolit have filled Bergeron's role. Sobotka has lots of experience in the Czech league but is slowly developing his offensive skills on the North American ice surface.

- Joshua Hennessy, Ottawa Senators- With regulars Daniel Alfredsson and Patrick Eaves out of the starting line-up, Hennessy played on Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Brockton, Massachusetts native has played four games for the Sens this season, with no points to report so far, but may stay with the club for more than one week, due to his versatility and attitude. The 2003 San Jose Sharks 2nd Rounder has loads of talent and may earn a permanent third line role next year if he continues his improved play.

- Robbie Earl, Toronto Maple Leafs- Injuries to veterans Chad Kilger and Nikolai Antropov allowed 22-year old Robbie Earl to make his season debut against the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night. Earl is a former University of Wisconsin Badger who has decent size and excellent two-way hockey skills. The Leafs see Earl as being a future role-player for the team, killing penalties and checking opposing forwards.

- Ben Ondrus, Toronto Maple Leafs- The Alberta bruiser appeared in his second NHL game of the season on Saturday night and will likely get sent down later this week but always provides a spark when wearing the Maple Leafs logo. The 25-year-old scored 30 goals twice in the Western Hockey League so there's no reason to believe he can't find a place on the Leafs 4th line if he's willing to do the right things.

- Brian Boyle, Los Angeles Kings. Boyle, recalled from the Manchester Monarchs earlier in the week, scored his first NHL goal and later added an assist on Saturday in a 6-3 loss to the New Jersey Devils. The 2003 1st rounder has likely found a home with the bottom-dwelling Kings as they are desperate for offense and Boyle has oodles of it. Boyle had 105 points in his final two years with Boston College and gives Los Angeles a future power play asset who can man the point with aplomb.

- Jeff Giuliano, Los Angeles Kings. Quick, what do Brian Boyle and Giuilano have in common? Well, Giuliano also played at Boston College and he also registered an assist againt the Devils on Saturday night. Giuiliano has two assists in 25 games and has served as a decent replacement for the injured Scott Thornton. The 28-year-old New Hampshire native is a utility grinder no doubt, and may not figure into L.A's plans next year.

- Brett Sterling, Atlanta Thrashers. Sterling may be the only person who wants uber-star Ilya Kovalchuks to stay on the sidelines. The 2003 5th rounder has three points in 13 games with the Thrasher this year, but was starting to really find his groove in the two games after Kovalchuk went down with an injury. Sterling has played remarkly for the Chicago Wolves this year (36 points in 41 games), building on his remarkable 97 point campaign from 2006'07.

Honourable Mentions: Colin Stuart, Atlanta Thrashers, Nathan Smith, Pittsburgh Penguins, Rich Peverley, Nashville Predators, Cody McLeod, Colorado Avalanche, Dustin Boyd, Calgary Flames.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Ezra Ginsburg.