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Thursday, November 22, 2007

FROZEN ASSETS

Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season

Welcome to another action packed edition of Frozen Assets. Every week I offer you, my loyal minions, general tips to help manage your bankroll and analysis of the hockey futures market.

Last week we finished up a two-part segment on “the betting exchange”. This week I would like to focus solely on hockey futures. With the first quarter of the season behind us, I would like to count down the Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season. The good news: some of these bets are still available.


10. Team: Boston Bruins Odds: +10000 Site: Carib Status: Available

Boston was not expected to compete for a playoff spot. Then they lost their starting goaltender Manny Fernandez and one of their top scorers Patrice Bergeron. The Bruins have kept it together though, with Tim Thomas playing at the top of his game, and Phil Kessel picking up the offensive slack. Boston is competing for a playoff spot, they are above .500 and they are available at +10000.

9. Team: Columbus Blue Jackets Odds: +7000 (Conference) Site: Bet365 Status: Changed October 14th

Columbus has exceeded expectations to start the season. Though they are currently slumping, they are still above .500 and playing hard for Coach Hitchcock (especially Rick Nash). Though these Bet365 odds changed on October 14th, The Blue Jackets were available to win the Stanley Cup at odds of +12500 as recently as two-and-a-half weeks ago.

8. Team: Ottawa Senators Odds: +900 Site: Wagerstreet Status: Changed October 16th

After wining the Eastern Conference and starting the season 5-1-0 (on their way to a 13-1-0 start) the Senators quickly established themselves as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. +900 is a solid price to have on the consensus favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup.

7. Team: St. Louis Blues Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Carib Status: Available

I was excited when St. Louis was available on November 9th at odds of +6600 to win the Stanley Cup. A week later, Carib posted odds on them to win the Conference at +5000 and +10000 to win the Cup. Then the Blues won four in a row including a victory over the Red Wings. The result? Still available at odds of +5000. St. Louis is 11-8-0, good for 9th in the Western Conference (2 points away from fourth).


6. Team: New York Islanders Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Stan James Status: Changed October 10th

To the surprise of most, the Islanders made the playoffs last year. The formula? Top tier goaltending and a hard-working, over achieving team with limited scoring ability. Remind you of any other Ted Nolan teams? The Isles were 3-1-0 when these odds were changed but were available at +4000 last week. They are still available at +3500 at Canbet. Currently the Islanders are 11-7-0.

5. Team: Chicago Blackhawks Odds: +7000 (Conference) Site: Bet365 Status: Changed October 14th

I know. Chicago was only 3-2-0 when the odds were changed. How were you supposed to know? Well, two wins over Detroit (4 of Detroit’s 6 losses have come to Chicago – Golden State vs. Dallas, anyone?), and their young talent making an immediate impact should have tipped you off. Odds of +12500 and +10000 to win the Stanley Cup were available into November. Currently the best odds on the Blackhawks to win the conference is +3500 at Stan James - I would recommend that price.

4. Team: Montreal Canadiens Odds: +6900 Site: Betfair Status: Changed October 29th

By the time the odds on the Canadiens changed they were already 6-2-2, their powerplay was the best in the league (still is), and they were getting solid goaltending from Cristobal Huet and Carey Price. Few people expected Montreal to compete in the Eastern Conference. That could explain why it took until October 29th for the odds to change.

3. Team: Carolina Hurricanes Odds: +4300 Site: Betfair Status: Changed October 12

Two years removed from their first Stanley Cup victory the Carolina Hurricanes are playing like they were in 2005-2006. When healthy, Carolina boasts three competent scoring lines and Cam Ward appears to be back to his 2005-2006 playoff form. The ‘Canes came out of the gate fast and were 3-1-1 including a 7-1 trouncing of the Maple Leafs a few days before the odds changed.


2. Team: Atlanta Thrashers Odds: +10000 Site: Carib Status: Available

Team is supposed to be average/above average. Team starts 0-6-0. Odds on team drop to reflect poor start. Coach is fired. Team wins 11 of 15 and occupies a playoff spot. Odds are the same as they were when team was 0-6-0. Classic formula for you to make money.


1. Team: Philadelphia Flyers Odds: +8000 Site: William Hill Status: Changed October 16

This year’s Philadelphia Flyers bear little resemblance to last year’s team. So why did the odds on the Flyers on October 16th resemble the odds you would expect to find on last year’s Flyers team? The Flyers started the season hot and were already 4-1-0 when these odds were taken off the board. Also, consider that the odds were posted by an A rated book that will not void or bet or refuse to pay you. This bet is the early favorite for futures wager of the year.


Hon Mention: Team:
Nashville Predators Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Carib Status: Available


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I’m the first one to admit that hindsight is 20/20, but there are almost always clues when a disconnect exists between a team and their posted odds. For example, the Atlanta Thrashers represent a textbook example of value – put $40 on them to win $4000 and enjoy the exciting wide-open style of Hossa and Kovalchuk.


For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen


About the Writer: Ari Baum-Cohen's first sports betting victory came in 1989 when he won his father's office pool at age 8. Since then, he has been interested in many different types of sports betting. His breakthrough futures win was at the end of the 2003 baseball season when he picked the Florida Marlins at odds of +7500 to win the National League.


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