FROZEN ASSETS

Free Agent (Betting) Frenzy and 2009 Stanley Cup Odds


Every year, on July 1st, two significant events occur that people in Canada care about and Americans don’t. The first is that unrestricted free agents can be pursued in the NHL. Can you guess the second? Though not the most exciting year for free agents, there are more than a few impact players available this year.

As I’ve mentioned many times in my column, one of the advantages the hockey bettor has over people betting on other North American sports is that few people pay attention to hockey. The fewer people betting on hockey, the less reactive the futures market is to changes in team personnel.

Hockey is so insignificant, though, that I was only able to find two sportsbooks offering odds on next year’s Stanley Cup winner: 10bet and Bet365. I have never used the site 10bet, but they are rated C by Sportsbook Reivew and do not allow American players.

Perhaps I am reconstructing history, but I remember more sites having futures markets up last year. Specifically 5dimes and Betfair. I remember scrambling to bet money on Philadelphia after they signed top-tier free agents.

You see friends, the hockey futures market, especially in the summer, is not a priority for sportsbooks. Therefore when a difference maker like Brian Campbell is signed, you will probably have time to bet on his new team at the same odds as before he was signed.

What you will likely have to do, is wait until August, when more sportsbooks release odds for the 2009 Stanley Cup Finals and then determine if these odds are based on each team’s performance last year or if teams' free agent acquisitions are incorporated.

Below are the 2009 Stanley Cup Futures odds from 10Bet and Bet365. I was surprised to see that the Montreal Canadiens are next year’s Stanley Cup favorites. If you find any other sites offering 2009 Stanley Cup odds or have a comment about these odds, feel free to use the comments section or to e-mail illegalcurve@gmail.com.

Team………………………………..10Bet………………………Bet365

Montreal Canadiens……….......…...+555………………………+550

Detroit Red Wings..........................+555................................+600

Pittsburgh Penguins........................+650................................+650

San Jose Sharks.............................+1000...............................+1100

Anaheim Ducks.............................+1400..............................+1400

Washington Capitals......................+1400..............................+1400

New York Rangers........................+1500..............................+1400

New Jersey Devils........................+1500...............................+1600

Ottawa Senators............................+1550..............................+1600

Minnesota Wild............................+1800..............................+1800

Dallas Stars..................................+1800..............................+1800

Philadelphia Flyers........................+2000.............................+1800

Colorado Avalanche......................+2000.............................+1800

Calgary Flames.............................+2000.............................+2000

Buffalo Sabres..............................+2000.............................+2500

Vancouver Canucks.......................+2600............................+2500

Carolina Hurricanes.......................+2500............................+2800

Boston Bruins...............................+3000............................+3500

Tampa Bay Lightning....................+3500............................+3500

Nashville Predators........................+4000...........................+4000

Florida Panthers.............................+4200...........................+4000

Chicago Blackhawks......................+6000...........................+3000

Phoenix Coyotes............................+5100.............................+5000

Edmonton Oilers...........................+5200..............................+5000

Columbus Blue Jackets..................+6500..............................+6500

St. Louis Blues..............................+6500.............................+6500

Toronto Maple Leafs......................+6500.............................+6500

New York Islanders.......................+7000..............................+6500

Atlanta Thrashers...........................+8100..............................+8000

Los Angeles Kings.........................+10000...........................+10000

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen

May 22 Frozen Assets w/Links to 2007-2008 Columns

FROZEN ASSETS

NHL Finals Preview and How to Win When You Lose

After two exciting rounds to open the playoffs, the Conference Finals round was a bust. Last round left me more bitter than Illegal Curve’s Andrew M when asked his opinion on Gary Bettman. Dallas and Philadelphia were the last two teams that I had bet on and they were disposed of quickly and painfully.

Even though my big teams lost, I was able to lock in a profit for the NHL season. I attribute my success to three tactics. I will share those with you today:

1. Over a season, value can be found on every team:

If you pay attention over the course of the season sportsbooks will make mistakes, especially in hockey futures betting where only 3-5 people actually care. Pittsburgh and Detroit were not my big teams, but I still had small bets on them. For most of the season Detroit was about +400 to win the Cup. Then, out of nowhere, one sportsbook had them at +600.

2. Betting on teams is only half of the battle:

If your bankroll is big enough, you should consider betting against teams. Betting against teams is usually done on betting exchanges. You will not hit any big jackpots betting against teams, but since twenty-nine of thirty teams lose, you will make your money in small increments. Finding the overrated teams to bet on (Anahiem and Vancouver this year) is one successful strategy when betting on teams. Another successful strategy is to bet on a team at one price, bet against them at another price, and keep the difference.

3. Don’t get greedy:

Hedging is an essential part of futures betting. Knowing when to hedge can be confusing, but you can make your decision easier by having a general plan of how to manage your money. You can adopt a high-risk strategy with minimal hedging, or a conservative strategy to minimize your losses. If you have bet on a team before the playoffs to win the Stanley Cup and they are playing in the Conference Finals you should, at minimum, have locked in a profit.


If you follow these three suggestions you should be able to profit from betting on the NHL even if your teams do not win the Stanley Cup. Pay attention and be disciplined and even if you lose you will still win.

Now let’s get down to business…

Congratulations to Detroit backers (best odds +1015, Olympic, October 29) and Pittsburgh backers (best odds +2600, Betfair, November 3). Also, congratulations to those of you that bet against the other 28 teams.

………………………..Series Odds………………………….Game 1 Odds

Detroit……………………(-148) Betfair………………………(-160) Betfair

Pittsburgh……………......(+150) BetED……………….……..(+152) Betfair

Nice work Betfair. You must consider, however, that Betfair is a betting exchange and will take 5% from your win as commission.

Betsson has posted the odds for the Conn Smythe Trophy winner:

Player……………………Odds…………MVP Odds if Team Wins Cup

Henrik Zetterberg……….(+112)…………………..(-370)

Detroit’s points leader and MVP favorite but no value in odds.

Sidney Crosby………….(+265)…….………….....(-217)

Leads the Pens in points but only has 4 goals. Odds are not long enough.

Pavel Datsyuk………….(+535)…………….…….(+281)

Only two points behind Zetterberg. Could win with big series.

Evgeni Malkin………….(+800)…………….……(+260)

Has been dominant but inconsistent. Would need big series.

Marian Hossa…………..(+1300)………………...(+460)

Tough to see Hossa outscoring Malkin and Crosby.

Marc-Andre Fleury……..(+1700)………………..(+620)

My best bet. If Pens win Fleury needs to stand on his head. Already has 1.70 GAA and 3 SO.

Chris Osgood………...…(+1700)……………….(+980)

There is value here. Osgood has 1.60 GAA and 10-2 record but is perennially underrated. Remember Detroit/Nasville series was 2-2 before Osgood came in.

Johan Franzen……......…(+2400)………...…….(+1400)
Playoff goals leader but missed most of Conference Finals. May not even play.

Tomas Holmstrom……...(+3900)…………..….(+2300)

Don’t even think about it.

Sergei Gonchar…………(+3900)…….………..(+1600)

See write up for Holmstrom.


Good luck on all of your bets. Next week we will wrap up the season with our 10 best bets of the year and greatest hits and misses.

Any questions? Comments? Find any interesting odds you would like to share? Leave them in the comments section or send an e-mail to illegalcurve@g-mail.com

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen

May 8, 2008: Frozen Assets' Playoff Preview Spectacular - Round 3

April 24, 2008: Frozen Assets' Playoff Preview Spectacular - Round 2

April 9, 2008: Frozen Assets' Playoff Preview Spectacular - Round 1

April 3, 2008: Best Stanley Cup Futures Odds? You Can Bet On It

March 27, 2008: What's In a Futures Bet? A Look Behind Stanley Cup Odds

March 20, 2008: All About the NHL Divisions

March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?

March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.

February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup

February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited

January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?

January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions

January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season

January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets

December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors

December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds

December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds

November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)

November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season

November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures

November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets

November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams

October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams

October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation

October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds

October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds

September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting

September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

FROZEN ASSETS

Conference Finals Preview & A Note About Bankroll Management

Welcome, Frozen Assets Fans, to the Conference Finals Preview!

Betting on sports alters your perspective on professional sports. Your favorite team is the team that will most help your bankroll, and that can change yearly, monthly, even daily. You also view the playoffs differently. For example, if you have bets on Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Detroit, or Dallas to win the Conference, then the Stanley Cup will seem anti-climactic.

For those of you with remaining futures bets, you may be asking yourself - when is a good time to hedge my bet? Hedging means betting AGAINST a team you have previously bet on in order to minimize your losses, break even or guarantee a profit.

Let me illustrate with a brief example:

In October you bet $200 on the Red Wings to win the Western Conference at odds of +500 for a profit of $1000 if Detroit wins the Conference. Now, on the eve of the Conference Finals, you decide that you "have not come this far to lose $200". Dallas is +200 to win the Conference. By betting on Dallas, you have the option of minimizing your losses, breaking even, or guaranteeing a profit.

$ bet on Dallas to win Conference.......Profit if Detroit Wins............Profit if Dallas wins

......................$100.........................................$900......................................$0

......................$250.........................................$750.....................................$300

......................$400.........................................$600.....................................$600

......................$1000.......................................$0.........................................$1800

As the table above demonstrates, hedging can offer considerable flexibility in managing your bankroll. The downside to hedging is that, unless both bets were made at the same betting exchange, sportsbooks are taking a piece of both sides of your bet, when ordinarily they only take on one side.

If you have any specific questions on hedging send them to illegalcurve@gmail.com.

Now let's get down to business - what are the best odds on each team to win the series (Conference) and Stanley Cup. As a special bonus to both of my loyal readers, I will include the best odds on each team to win game 1. As a second bonus, so we can all feel stupid, the best odds on team to win the Stanley Cup available over the course of the season.

.....................Series Odds............................Cup Odds...............................Champs*

Detroit (1).......... -208 (Matchbook)...................+150 (Betsson)........................-145

Dallas (5)............+196 (Matchbook)...................+449 (Pinnacle).......................-117

Pittsburgh (1).......-190 (BetED).........................+225 (Betfair)..........................+112

Philadelphia (6)....+200 (Matchbook)..................+720 (Matchbook)...................+173

*Champs - Based on the posted odds what the money line would be on that team, if they won the Conference, to win the Stanley Cup.

........................................Game 1 Odds..........................Best Odds (Approx. Date)

Detroit (1).............................-183 (Matchbook)..................+1015 (Oct. 29) (Olympic)
Dallas (5)..............................+182 (Betfair)........................+4300 (Nov. 29) (Betfair)

Pittsburgh (1)........................-170 (BetED).........................+2600 (Nov. 3) (Betfair)
Philadelphia (5)....................+169 (Matchbook)..................+8000 (Oct. 16) (Betfair)

I hope this info will help you make some $. Maybe even some $$. Any questions? Leave them in the comments section or write me at illegalcurve@gmail.com.

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen

April 24, 2008: Frozen Assets' Playoff Preview Spectacular - Round 2

April 9, 2008: Frozen Assets' Playoff Preview Spectacular - Round 1

April 3, 2008: Best Stanley Cup Futures Odds? You Can Bet On It

March 27, 2008: What's In a Futures Bet? A Look Behind Stanley Cup Odds

March 20, 2008: All About the NHL Divisions

March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?

March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.

February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup

February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited

January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?

January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions

January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season

January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets

December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors

December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds

December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds

November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)

November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season

November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures

November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets

November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams

October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams

October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation

October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds

October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds

September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting

September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

FROZEN ASSETS

Frozen Assets' Playoff Spectacular - Round 2

The first round of the playoffs was exciting and unpredictable: three series' went the distance, both defending Conference Champions lost (convincingly) and every team in the Western Conference looked vulnerable.

Combine the excitement and unpredictability of the NHL playoffs with the reality that few people actually care about (betting on) hockey, and it is easy to see how betting on hockey futures can be profitable and enjoyable.

On a personal note, two of the teams I had heavily invested in lost: Washington & Boston. I had picked up the Capitals throughout the year to win the Eastern Conference at odds ranging from 80/1 (+8000) to 33/1 (+3300). The Bruins I had mostly from the early part of the season at odds ranging from 110/1 to 85/1.

Here is a link to my round one recommendations - I have summarized them below:

1. Montreal/Boston - Montreal +400 to win the Conference.
2. Pittsburgh/Ottawa - Pittsburgh +300 to win the Conference.
3. Washington/Philadelphia - I identified and recommended an arbitrage opportunity.
4. New York/New Jersey - Rangers -110 to win the series.
5. Detroit/Nashville - Detroit +350 to win the Conference.
6. San Jose/Calgary - San Jose +400 to win the Conference.
7. Minnesota/Colorado - Pass.
8. Anaheim/Dallas - Take Dallas at +200.

I'm not going to do second round previews, as our competent staff at Illegal Curve have done an excellent, well-researched job already.

For the second round of the playoffs I will be exploring the relationship between series odds, Conference odds, and Stanley Cup odds. The price on a team to win the Conference is the odds on them to win the current series multiplied by them to win the next series. The price on a team to win the Stanley Cup is the odds on them to win the Conference multiplied by the odds on that team to win the Stanley Cup final. I have compiled the best odds on each team to win the series, Conference, and Stanley Cup.

Eastern Conference:

Team.......................Series....Conference.............Stanley Cup............Finals*........Champs*

(1) Montreal........-186 (Pin).......+200 (Uni)......+650 (Fred).............-105................+150

(6) Philadelphia..+180 (365).....+1000 (Jet)......+2000 (Boy)...........+293...............+100

(2) Pittsburgh.....-133 (Mat)......+175 (ED)........+475 (ED)................-175..................+109

(5) New York......+135 (ED).......+400 (Fred)......+880 (Fair)...........+113................-105

Western Conference:

(1) Detroit...........-181 (Pin).......+150 (ED).........+320 (Fair).............-164...............-147

(6) Colorado........+200(ED)......+700 (Fair).......+1500 (Boy)............+167.............+100

(2) San Jose........-140 (Pin).......+300 (Fred).....+500 (365)...............+134.............-200

(5) Dallas............+150 (ED)........+450 (Fred).....+1100 (Fair).............+120............+118

Arbitrage Opportunity
Recommended Play

*Finals - Based on the posted odds what the money line would be on that team in the Conference Finals to win the Conference Finals.

*Champs - Based on the posted odds what the money line would be on that team in the Stanley Cup to win the Stanley Cup.

Agree? Disagree? Like a more detailed explanation? Feel free to post a comment or send an e-mail to illegalcurve@gmail.com.


April 9, 2008: Frozen Assets' Playoff Preview Spectacular - Round 1
April 3, 2008: Best Stanley Cup Futures Odds? You Can Bet On It
March 27, 2008: What's In a Futures Bet? A Look Behind Stanley Cup Odds
March 20, 2008: All About the NHL Divisions
March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?
March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

FROZEN ASSETS

Best Stanley Cup Futures Odds? You Can Bet On It

With four days remaining in the regular season there are seven playoff spots yet to be determined: five spots are still unclaimed in the East, while four teams vie for the final two spots in the West. For a more comprehensive look at the playoff picture, check out the most recent edition of Numbers Game.

At this point of the season the odds on premier teams such as Detroit, San Jose and Pittsburgh are relatively stable, while odds on teams trying to make the playoffs can fluctuate from one night to the next. Due to the fluctuation of odds from one night to the next, most sportsbooks will either take down their odds once the games start, or take them down altogether until the regular season is over. Betting exchanges, however, do not automatically take down their odds as it is regular jobbers like you and me setting the odds, not professional handicappers, and sometimes we forget to cancel our bets.

Even though sportsbooks take their odds down nightly that does not mean they are regularly updating their bets or that the posted odds are accurate. For example, Nashville has more points and an easier schedule than Vancouver, yet the odds on Nashville to win the Stanley Cup are generally longer than the odds on Vancouver to win the Stanley Cup.

Here is a table with the best odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup and the average price on them to win each series implied by those best odds. I have also included (my) probabilities on teams to make the playoffs, though this part of the table could be outdated by this evening. If you need more explanation on the table, read last week's edition of Frozen Assets.


Team...............Best Odds........Site.................Prob. of Playoffs.......Price/Round

Detroit..............+450.............betED......................1.0............................-189

San Jose............+630............Matchbook...............1.0............................-178

Pittsburgh.........+733............WSEX......................1.0............................-143

Montreal...........+1000..........Matchboook..............1.0...........................-122

Anaheim...........+1100..........betED........................1.0............................-116

New Jersey.......+1500..........5Dimes......................1.0............................+100

Minnesota.........+2700.........Betfair.......................1.0.............................+130

Dallas................+1850........Betfair.........................1.0.............................+110

New York (R)...+1600........Bet365......................0.97.............................+102

Colorado...........+3300........Centrebet...................1.0..............................+141

Ottawa..............+2000.........Bet365.......................0.83............................+102

Calgary.............+2800........5Dimes.......................0.85............................+123

Carolina............+3000........5Dimes........................0.90.............................+130

Boston..............+5000........BetFred........................0.79............................+152

Philadelphia.....+5000........BetFred........................0.76............................+150

Nashville..........+8500........5Dimes.......................0.65............................+173

Washington......+5000........BetFred.......................0.67............................+142

Vancouver........+5000........Gamebookers..............0.40............................+113

Buffalo.............+50000.......5Dimes.......................0.08............................+151

Chicago............+50000.......5Dimes.......................0.10............................+166


Finally the odds on Vancouver and Anaheim, the two most overrated teams odds-wise are closer to matching the true odds.

Questions, Comments, think I'm way off here? Leave a comment or send an e-mail to illegalcurve@gmail.com

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen


March 27, 2008: What's In a Futures Bet? A Look Behind Stanley Cup Odds
March 20, 2008: All About the NHL Divisions
March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?
March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

FROZEN ASSETS

What's in a Futures bet? A Look Behind Stanley Cup Odds

How do we know if a futures bet is good value? Sure, if I told you to bet on Detroit or San Jose to win the Stanley Cup at odds of +10000 you would know that was a good bet. But would you know why? What does a futures bet represent?

Betting on a team to win the Stanley Cup requires five events to occur:

1) The team must make the playoffs.
2) The team must win the conference quarter-finals.
3) The team must win the conference semi-finals.
4) The team must win the conference finals.
5) The team must win the Stanley Cup.

A futures bet on a team to win the Stanley Cup represents the probability of those five events occurring. That probability is calculated by multiplying the likelihood of each event occurring.

Now that there are five games left in the regular season, we know that all teams are not equal. Some teams have made the playoffs, some teams are eliminated, and most teams fall somewhere in between.

Based on the best odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup and the probability that they will make the playoffs (caveat: strictly my opinion), it is possible to calculate the average odds on each team to advance for each round of the Stanley Cup.

(Before games of March 27 - except Boston/Toronto)

Team...............Best Odds........Site.................Prob. of Playoffs.......Price/Round

Detroit..............+400............Betfair......................1.0............................-200

San Jose............+840............Betfair......................1.0............................-133

Montreal...........+1150...........Betfair......................1.0............................-114

Anaheim............+800...........Matchboook..............1.0............................-137

Pittsburgh.........+1000.........Matchboook................1.0............................-122

New Jersey........+1400.........Bet365.......................0.97.........................-105

Ottawa................+1400.........Bet365.....................0.95.........................-106

Minnesota..........+3300........BetFred......................0.90.........................+135

Calgary................+2600........Betfair......................0.90.........................+122

Dallas..................+2200........Gamebookers............0.90..........................+113

New York (R).....+1800........5Dimes......................0.90..........................+103

Philadelphia........+5000.......Carib...........................0.83..........................+154

Colorado..............+3233.......WSEX.......................0.78..........................+126

Boston .................+6000.......Carib.........................0.73.........................+158

Vancouver............+3000......Carib..........................0.65..........................+112

Nashville..............+10000....BetFred......................0.60...........................+174

Washington..........+6600.....BetFred.......................0.37..........................+123

Edmonton.............+22500...5Dimes.......................0.14..........................+137

Buffalo...................+10000...BetFred....................0.22.........................+117

Florida..................+30000...StanJames...................0.09........................+128

Phoenix.................+80000...StanJames..................0.05........................+152

Chicago..................+80000...StanJames.................0.06........................+163

Columbus..............+99999...Carib.........................0.02........................+111


Questions, Comments, think I'm way off here? Leave a comment or send an e-mail to illegalcurve@gmail.com

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen


March 20, 2008: All About the NHL Divisions
March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?
March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

FROZEN ASSETS

All About the NHL Divisions





Tonight is the final night that teams play games outside of their division. As a result of the new NHL schedule, the last eight games of the season are played intra-divisionally. Each team plays the other two teams in their division twice: once at home and once on the road.


Western Conference

While almost every game is essential at this stage of the season, the Northwest Division, with four teams separated by three points and Edmonton making a late run will likely provide the closest race down the stretch. In the Central, the only meaningful games involve Nashville, and they have little margin for error as they sit four points out of the final playoff spot. San Jose will most likely win the Pacific division, and the most interesting battle out of the NHL's strongest division is whether Anaheim or Dallas will have home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Phoenix is barely alive, but the Coyotes have the best divisional record at 17-7-0.


Eastern Conference

The Atlantic division has tightened up due to the surging New York Rangers. New Jersey, Pittsburgh, and the Rangers all have a legitimate shot to win the division. Philadelphia is clinging to a one-point lead over Buffalo for the final playoff spot and will have a difficult finishing schedule. At least they have two games against the banged-up Islanders. In the Northeast, Montreal's two game set with Ottawa will likely decide who wins the division, and Boston's home-and-home with the Sabres will likely decide the Sabres' fate. Finally, in the hapless Southeast division Carolina, Florida, and Washington will take turns beating up on Tampa Bay and Atlanta. It is possible, but will be difficult for Washington or Florida to catch Carolina. Two losses probably means they playoffs are out of reach.

Before the season started I posted a preview of division betting as well as analysis. I also reviewed division betting on January 17th. Here are some highlights:

Western Conference

Northwest

The Northwest division is playing out as expected, with the top four teams all having a chance to win the division. The best odds of the four were on Minnesota at +420, followed by Vancouver at +320, Colorado at +285, and Calgary at +275. The Wild's three point lead means little with the many divisional games remaining. I recommended Minnesota and Vancouver, because the division was a toss-up so why not take the longest shots?

Central

Obviously the Red Wings were the clear favorite to start the season. The price on them to win the division was -163. This price means you would have to bet $163 to win $100. Detroit was the only team in the league given a better than 50% chance to win their division. They started strong and the division title was never in doubt. My recommendation was to lay the chalk and take Detroit.

Pacific

San Jose's recent winning streak has put them in command of the Pacific division. Starting the season the Sharks were available at +200 (bet $100 to win an additional $200), Anaheim was available at +125, and Dallas at +600. My recommendation was to take the Sharks at +200 because without Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim and San Jose were basically equal. Niedermayer is back, but Anaheim could not make up for their slow start and catch the Sharks. Dallas made a charge but is too far back to still be considered a legitimate threat.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

The Atlantic division is still undecided. New Jersey, Pittsburgh, and the Rangers can all still claim the Atlantic division crown. Of those three teams, New Jersey was the longest shot on the board at +500, followed by the Rangers at +225, and Pittsburgh at +220. The Devils are often overlooked, but any team with Martin Brodeur should be wagered on at +500 to win the division. I recommended passing on the Atlantic division, but I should have recommended New Jersey based on the "Brodeur Factor".

Northeast

The Northeast division battle is between Ottawa and Montreal. Montreal is up three points, but Ottawa has a game in hand. Montreal is the best value of all of the division bets as they were available at +1400. The best odds on Ottawa to win the division before the season was +100 - even money. I recommended Buffalo at +385 as a value play. To my (partial) credit, on January 17th I said "Watch out for Montreal, +1400 and currently eight points behind a struggling Senators team."

Southeast

It looks like Carolina will win the Southeast, but with all division games remaining, anything is possible. My original recommendation was any team besides Carolina. This is an example of focussing on process not results. I believed all five teams had a legitimate shot to win the division, and Carolina had the worst odds. I recommended Washington at +1400 strictly as a value play. It turned out to be a good recommendation, but not one that would net you anything other than a consoling pat on the back at the end of the season. Who knows? Maybe the Capitals or Panthers can make a late run.

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen



March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?
March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year