NHL Finals Preview and How to Win When You Lose
After two exciting rounds to open the playoffs, the Conference Finals round was a bust. Last round left me more bitter than Illegal Curve’s Andrew M when asked his opinion on Gary Bettman. Dallas and Philadelphia were the last two teams that I had bet on and they were disposed of quickly and painfully.
Even though my big teams lost, I was able to lock in a profit for the NHL season. I attribute my success to three tactics. I will share those with you today:
1. Over a season, value can be found on every team:
If you pay attention over the course of the season sportsbooks will make mistakes, especially in hockey futures betting where only 3-5 people actually care. Pittsburgh and Detroit were not my big teams, but I still had small bets on them. For most of the season Detroit was about +400 to win the Cup. Then, out of nowhere, one sportsbook had them at +600.
2. Betting on teams is only half of the battle:
If your bankroll is big enough, you should consider betting against teams. Betting against teams is usually done on betting exchanges. You will not hit any big jackpots betting against teams, but since twenty-nine of thirty teams lose, you will make your money in small increments. Finding the overrated teams to bet on (Anahiem and Vancouver this year) is one successful strategy when betting on teams. Another successful strategy is to bet on a team at one price, bet against them at another price, and keep the difference.
3. Don’t get greedy:
Hedging is an essential part of futures betting. Knowing when to hedge can be confusing, but you can make your decision easier by having a general plan of how to manage your money. You can adopt a high-risk strategy with minimal hedging, or a conservative strategy to minimize your losses. If you have bet on a team before the playoffs to win the Stanley Cup and they are playing in the Conference Finals you should, at minimum, have locked in a profit.
If you follow these three suggestions you should be able to profit from betting on the NHL even if your teams do not win the Stanley Cup. Pay attention and be disciplined and even if you lose you will still win.
Now let’s get down to business…
Congratulations to Detroit backers (best odds +1015, Olympic, October 29) and Pittsburgh backers (best odds +2600, Betfair, November 3). Also, congratulations to those of you that bet against the other 28 teams.
………………………..Series Odds………………………….Game 1 Odds
Detroit……………………(-148) Betfair………………………(-160) Betfair
Pittsburgh……………......(+150) BetED……………….……..(+152) Betfair
Nice work Betfair. You must consider, however, that Betfair is a betting exchange and will take 5% from your win as commission.
Betsson has posted the odds for the Conn Smythe Trophy winner:
Player……………………Odds…………MVP Odds if Team Wins Cup
Henrik Zetterberg……….(+112)…………………..(-370)
Detroit’s points leader and MVP favorite but no value in odds.
Sidney Crosby………….(+265)…….………….....(-217)
Leads the Pens in points but only has 4 goals. Odds are not long enough.
Pavel Datsyuk………….(+535)…………….…….(+281)
Only two points behind Zetterberg. Could win with big series.
Evgeni Malkin………….(+800)…………….……(+260)
Has been dominant but inconsistent. Would need big series.
Marian Hossa…………..(+1300)………………...(+460)
Tough to see Hossa outscoring Malkin and Crosby.
Marc-Andre Fleury……..(+1700)………………..(+620)
My best bet. If Pens win Fleury needs to stand on his head. Already has 1.70 GAA and 3 SO.
Chris Osgood………...…(+1700)……………….(+980)
There is value here. Osgood has 1.60 GAA and 10-2 record but is perennially underrated. Remember Detroit/Nasville series was 2-2 before Osgood came in.
Johan Franzen……......…(+2400)………...…….(+1400)
Playoff goals leader but missed most of Conference Finals. May not even play.
Tomas Holmstrom……...(+3900)…………..….(+2300)
Don’t even think about it.
Sergei Gonchar…………(+3900)…….………..(+1600)
See write up for Holmstrom.
Good luck on all of your bets. Next week we will wrap up the season with our 10 best bets of the year and greatest hits and misses.
Any questions? Comments? Find any interesting odds you would like to share? Leave them in the comments section or send an e-mail to illegalcurve@g-mail.com
For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen
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