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Thursday, February 14, 2008

FROZEN ASSETS


Trade Deadline Tips And (As Always) the Best Odds on Teams to Win the Cup

With the trade deadline less then two weeks away, we all have the same questions looping through our brains. First, who is going where? Then, how can I use this information to make money betting on hockey?

This year there are many premier players rumored to be moved before the deadline. Where will they go and how will they affect their new teams? In this week's Numbers Game, Illegal Curve looked at
the impact of the major players that were traded last year at the deadline and concluded that those players had a minimal impact on their new teams. Intuitively, however, it is difficult to argue that a team without a player such as Marian Hossa or Mats Sundin is as effective as they are with a bona-fide superstar. Time will tell whether last year was an aberration or if this year's deadline deals will produce a similar (non) result.

If you believe that deadline deals involving premier players are overrated, take advantage of the fact that while teams that make deadline deals will see a decrease in their odds to win the Cup, teams that did not make any moves should see a slight increase. See what teams increase in odds to win the Stanley Cup and bet on those teams.

If you believe that deadline deals involving premier players have a positive impact on the team acquiring the superstar I have some good news for you: most sportsbooks don't care about hockey enough to adjust the odds in a timely manner. Pay attention on deadline day, and when you see a team make a move, that's when you make yours. Trust me, Alonzo in Costa Rica isn't watching Steve Ludzik ramble incoherently for ten hours on the off chance that someone actually bets on hockey futures. Sorry to single you out Alonzo. Some books, however, particularly ones that cater to Canadians will adjust their odds in a timely fashion or take them down for deadline day.

Best of luck to you on February 26th. I will be away for the next two weeks and will return with more Frozen Assets on March 6th.

Here are the standings and best odds as of February 14th. I have ordered the teams by conference and points-per-game played. Note: I will only include a price at a betting exchange if there is $10 or more available at the posted odds.

Eastern Conference


Team……........PPG…….…Best Odds......…Site....PPG Rank...Best Odds Rank

Ottawa…....…..1.26…………+615………Pinnacle
……(2)….........(2)

Pittsburgh.........1.21…………+1900….….Betsafe........(5)….........(5)

New Jersey…....1.19…………+2262….....
Pinnacle.......(6)….........(7)

Montreal......….1.19…………+2700…..…Betsafe........(6)........…..(9)

Philadelphia......1.16………...+2100…..…
Betsafe.........(9)….........(6)

Buffalo..………1.12…..…….+5000…...…Carib..........(14)…....…(15)

Boston..........….1.11……......+6600….....Stan James..(15)…........(17)

New York (R)....1.07…..…….+4050….…
Olympic.....(17)....….…(14)

Washington...…1.03……...….+8000….....Centrebet...(20).............(19)

Carolina……….1.02…………+5252....….Pinnacle.....(22).............(16)

Atlanta........…...1.02………...+8400….…
Betfair.......(22)..............(20)

New York (I).....1.00…..…….+12500…...Stan James..(24).............(24)

Florida………....0.98………..+12500…....Betfred.......(26).............(24)

Toronto…….......0.95…….…+15000…....Stan James..(28).............(28)

Tampa Bay….....0.95……..…+12500…....5Dimes.......(28).............(24)


Western Conference

Team….….........PPG……………..Best Odds……Site….PPG Rank…Best Odds Rank

Detroit…….......1.47……………..+333…….....WillHill…..(1)………..(1)

San Jose…........1.25……...…...…+1500………Bet365.......(3)…….….(4)

Dallas...............1.25…….…….…+2500….…...Betfred.......(3)……......(8)

Minnesota.........1.19…………..…+3050….…..Olympic......(6)…….….(11)

Anaheim…........1.16………….….+1015……...
Olympic......(9)….…..…(3)

Calgary..........…1.16……………..+2850……...
Olympic......(9)…....….(10)

Colorado............1.14…….………+3842…..…..Pinnacle.....(12)…….....(13)

Nashville…........1.14…………….+6600….……Canbet.......(12)……....(17)

Vancouver..........1.11…………….+3500……....Carib..........(15)...........(12)

St. Louis...…......1.05…………….+10900..…....
Betfair........(18)…....…(22)

Phoenix..............1.05…………….+10000….…..Canbet.......(18)…........(21)

Columbus….......1.03……………..+10900…......Betfair.......(20)............(22)

Chicago…......…1.00………..……+13900…...…Betfair.......(24)............(27)

Edmonton.......…0.98……,,………+15000…...…Pinnacle...(26)............(28)

Los Angeles........0.86……………..+62500..……Bet365......(30)............(30)

Based on points-per-game and odds, Anaheim and Carolina are overrated, while there is value on Dallas, Minnesota, and Nashville.

I hope you can use this information to generate a few cheap thrills, but remember my favorite expression: "You win some you lose most."

For Illegal Curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen


February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

Ballhype: hype it up!

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