FROZEN ASSETS

Trade Deadline Tips And (As Always) the Best Odds on Teams to Win the Cup

With the trade deadline less then two weeks away, we all have the same questions looping through our brains. First, who is going where? Then, how can I use this information to make money betting on hockey?

This year there are many premier players rumored to be moved before the deadline. Where will they go and how will they affect their new teams? In this week's Numbers Game, Illegal Curve looked at the impact of the major players that were traded last year at the deadline and concluded that those players had a minimal impact on their new teams. Intuitively, however, it is difficult to argue that a team without a player such as Marian Hossa or Mats Sundin is as effective as they are with a bona-fide superstar. Time will tell whether last year was an aberration or if this year's deadline deals will produce a similar (non) result.

If you believe that deadline deals involving premier players are overrated, take advantage of the fact that while teams that make deadline deals will see a decrease in their odds to win the Cup, teams that did not make any moves should see a slight increase. See what teams increase in odds to win the Stanley Cup and bet on those teams.

If you believe that deadline deals involving premier players have a positive impact on the team acquiring the superstar I have some good news for you: most sportsbooks don't care about hockey enough to adjust the odds in a timely manner. Pay attention on deadline day, and when you see a team make a move, that's when you make yours. Trust me, Alonzo in Costa Rica isn't watching Steve Ludzik ramble incoherently for ten hours on the off chance that someone actually bets on hockey futures. Sorry to single you out Alonzo. Some books, however, particularly ones that cater to Canadians will adjust their odds in a timely fashion or take them down for deadline day.

Best of luck to you on February 26th. I will be away for the next two weeks and will return with more Frozen Assets on March 6th.

Here are the standings and best odds as of February 14th. I have ordered the teams by conference and points-per-game played. Note: I will only include a price at a betting exchange if there is $10 or more available at the posted odds.

Eastern Conference


Team……........PPG…….…Best Odds......…Site....PPG Rank...Best Odds Rank

Ottawa…....…..1.26…………+615………Pinnacle……(2)….........(2)

Pittsburgh.........1.21…………+1900….….Betsafe........(5)….........(5)

New Jersey…....1.19…………+2262….....Pinnacle.......(6)….........(7)

Montreal......….1.19…………+2700…..…Betsafe........(6)........…..(9)

Philadelphia......1.16………...+2100…..…Betsafe.........(9)….........(6)

Buffalo..………1.12…..…….+5000…...…Carib..........(14)…....…(15)

Boston..........….1.11……......+6600….....Stan James..(15)…........(17)

New York (R)....1.07…..…….+4050….…Olympic.....(17)....….…(14)

Washington...…1.03……...….+8000….....Centrebet...(20).............(19)

Carolina……….1.02…………+5252....….Pinnacle.....(22).............(16)

Atlanta........…...1.02………...+8400….…Betfair.......(22)..............(20)

New York (I).....1.00…..…….+12500…...Stan James..(24).............(24)

Florida………....0.98………..+12500…....Betfred.......(26).............(24)

Toronto…….......0.95…….…+15000…....Stan James..(28).............(28)

Tampa Bay….....0.95……..…+12500…....5Dimes.......(28).............(24)


Western Conference

Team….….........PPG……………..Best Odds……Site….PPG Rank…Best Odds Rank

Detroit…….......1.47……………..+333…….....WillHill…..(1)………..(1)

San Jose…........1.25……...…...…+1500………Bet365.......(3)…….….(4)

Dallas...............1.25…….…….…+2500….…...Betfred.......(3)……......(8)

Minnesota.........1.19…………..…+3050….…..Olympic......(6)…….….(11)

Anaheim…........1.16………….….+1015……...Olympic......(9)….…..…(3)

Calgary..........…1.16……………..+2850……...Olympic......(9)…....….(10)

Colorado............1.14…….………+3842…..…..Pinnacle.....(12)…….....(13)

Nashville…........1.14…………….+6600….……Canbet.......(12)……....(17)

Vancouver..........1.11…………….+3500……....Carib..........(15)...........(12)

St. Louis...…......1.05…………….+10900..…....Betfair........(18)…....…(22)

Phoenix..............1.05…………….+10000….…..Canbet.......(18)…........(21)

Columbus….......1.03……………..+10900…......Betfair.......(20)............(22)

Chicago…......…1.00………..……+13900…...…Betfair.......(24)............(27)

Edmonton.......…0.98……,,………+15000…...…Pinnacle...(26)............(28)

Los Angeles........0.86……………..+62500..……Bet365......(30)............(30)

Based on points-per-game and odds, Anaheim and Carolina are overrated, while there is value on Dallas, Minnesota, and Nashville.

I hope you can use this information to generate a few cheap thrills, but remember my favorite expression: "You win some you lose most."

For Illegal Curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen


February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

Tuesday Editorial: Why is trading so rare in the NHL?

With the NHL trade deadline less than three weeks away and trade rumours at a season-high, hockey fans are all wondering when the first chip will fall. Fans are probably more eager than ever to see a few transactions across the NHL, since, unlike years past, this season has seen little to no player movement. Now, I am not here to provide you with an abundance of trade rumours because there are more than enough websites out there that focus entirely on that topic; rather, I am here to examine why there is such a dearth of player movement in the game today. Looking more closely, I will present the two main arguments you will usually hear as the reasons for this lack of movement. First, I will assess the argument that the lack of NHL trading is due mainly to the $50.3 per team salary cap, which limits player spending and, as a result, doesn’t allow for players to be traded. Secondly, I will examine the argument that parity is the main reason for the lack of movement. Finally, I will decide which of these arguments holds more merit.

First argument: NHL trades are rare because teams have to fit their rosters to a strict $50.3 million cap leaving little or no money for other transactions

After the NHL lost the 2004/05 season to a lockout, the league finally got the hard cap it so desired heading into the 2005/06 season. While the hard cap has rose by more than $10 million since its inception, the cap still limits many teams in their spending ability. The large market teams that were well above the current cap limit prior to the lockout are believed to be close to the salary cap ceiling this season. When these teams head into the season with “allegedly” all their cap room spent, the misperception exists that teams only have the option of trading salary-for-salary in a trade. Salary for salary trades are most common in NBA basketball, and are rarer on the hockey landscape. The rarity of these transactions isn’t difficult to see. Think about how difficult it was to make a trade even pre-lockout; you still had to agree on players, draft picks, etc. With the salary cap, not only do you need to agree on take into account the aforementioned issues, but you also have to take player salaries into account when completing a transaction. Taking all these factors into account, the public may get the impression that trading really looks mighty difficult. However, once you take a closer look at the facts, the picture will appear to be far clearer.

Examining the NHL team-by-team cap numbers (courtesy of NHLSCAP.com) one will realize that only two teams have less than $1 million left: the Maple Leafs and the Flyers. Further, only one team has between $1-$2 million dollars in cap space: the Vancouver Canucks. Therefore, only three teams have less than $2 million dollars in cap space remaining. On top of that, only five teams are between $2-$3 million dollars in cap space. Altogether, that means only one third of NHL teams are within $3 million dollars of the salary cap, while the rest have more space to maneuver. If lack of salary space is such a problem, why do two thirds of NHL teams have enough to make a deal? This leads us into our alternative argument.

Second argument: NHL trades are not so commonplace because most teams are in or close to a playoff spot

As I wrote last week in my Tuesday Editorial, the NHL playoff race is as close as ever. Looking at the race this week, not much has changed. There are only four teams in the entire NHL that are more than six points out of a playoff spot, with just under 30 games remaining for each team. Think about that for a second; 26 NHL teams are in or within a short winning streak of the playoffs.

When trading takes place, the easiest trades to consummate are those between haves and have not’s. That option, however, is less readily present in the parity-ridden NHL. There are hardly, if any, proverbial sellers at this point. Furthermore, if there are only four to six sellers right now, why would any of those sellers deal off their assets before the trade deadline, a time which will most likely result in increased offers? In short, they won’t.

Trades between two playoff teams, or teams striving for a playoff spot, aren’t very common because GM’s generally don’t like to see their former players come back to haunt them. Thus, they generally avoid trading intra-conference. As a result, their options are cut in half, limiting them offers from teams who don’t play in their conference. Small-scale trades like last year’s deal of Aaron Ward for Paul Mara are more likely than intra-conference than a blockbuster.

Which argument is better?

Both arguments have their merits. In fact, some might argue the two arguments are anything but mutually exclusive (seeing as how the salary cap is the reason for parity in the first place). Also, I realize that some teams work within their own self-imposed budget; however, those figures are difficult to obtain from these organizations and, thus, provides me with little, if any, way to have included those numbers in this analysis. Having said all that, examining these two issues separately seems to reveal that NHL teams trade less these days due to their belief that they can compete for a playoff spot, and advance once there, rather than due to the limits that cap constrains place upon them.

For Illegal Curve, I’m Richard Pollock.
illegalcurve@gmail.com