FROZEN ASSETS

TO WIN THE CONFERENCE OR TO WIN THE CUP?

Welcome to the fifth edition of Frozen Assets. Every week I offer general tips for successful futures wagering and I examine odds in the hockey futures market. This week, I will discuss the difficult choice of whether to place a conference or championship wager. I will then provide you with a list of sportsbooks that offer futures odds on European hockey.

One of the questions that arises when placing a futures wager is “should I take the team to win the conference or the championship?" In the 3 major North American sports, there is disparity between conferences. The NBA’s Western Conference is much stronger than the Eastern Conference, in the NFL the AFC is considered more than a touchdown favorite to win the Superbowl, and in baseball the American League is regarded as a superior league to the National League. What about the NHL?

In the recent NHL the Western Conference has been the stronger conference. Without running serious numbers, last year’s average point total in each conference was 90.86 for the East, while in the West it was 91.86. When you look at the average point total of playoff teams in each conference, the East was 100.75 while the West was substantially higher at 106.5.

This year, the gap between the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference has narrowed. Ottawa, Anaheim, and Detroit are the three favorites to win the Stanley Cup (1 East 2 West). After those teams come the tier-two favorites: San Jose, Pittsburgh, and the Rangers (2 East 1 West). After those teams, the next group of contenders consists of Buffalo, Colorado, Calgary, Carolina, Vancouver, Dallas, Minnesota, Philadelphia and New Jersey (4 East 4 West).

Though it is early in the season, the Eastern Conference has played 83 games and has registered 91 points. The Western Conference has played 93 games and has 99 points. The East is 6-3 against the West so far this season. I am not suggesting the East is better than the West, as conclusions are difficult after 6 games of an 82 game season. I am suggesting that, at this point in the young season, it looks like the East and West are relatively equal.

From a wagering perspective, if your research indicates a team is likely to be successful, make sure that you are determining which odds, conference or championship are more favorable. If you are not able to determine which odds are better, the tiebreaker is to take them to win the conference. Conference odds will allow you more flexibility in managing your risk. For example, if you are fortunate enough to win your conference futures bet and you think your team should win the Stanley Cup then you can put some or all of your winnings on that team to win the Stanley Cup. If you took the team to win the Stanley Cup and they lose in the finals then you don’t win anything (unless you hedged).

FROZEN ASSETS' EUROPEAN VACATION

In a future edition of Frozen Assets I will compare conference odds with Stanley Cup odds, but today I would like to shift focus away from North American Hockey and provide information as to which books offer futures odds on European Hockey. Euro Curve, this week is dedicated to you:

Country…………….…League…………….....Site (Rating)………………………

Austria……………….....…EHL………....……….......Bet365 (B+), William Hill (A)

Czech Republic………....ExtraLiga…...............…10Bet (B-), Bet365 (B+),

................................................................................Bet At Home (D)

Denmark………….......…Oddset Ligaen…..….....10Bet (B-), Bet365 (B+)

Finland……….......……....SM-Liiga……........….…William Hill (A), Portlandbet (NR)

Germany……….......…….Bundesliga………....…...William Hill (A)

Germany……….......……Eishockey Liga…......….Bet365 (B+)

Slovakia……….......…….Extraliga…….…….......…10Bet (B-), Bet365 (B+)

Sweden…………..…........Elitserien…….....………..Portlandbet (NR)

Switzerland……….....…Nationalliga A….....…….10Bet (B-), Bet365 (B+)

Note: New sites can choose to post futures odds for European hockey, and it is possible that other sites that usually post futures odds for European hockey didn't have them up today.

Tip: Watch out for the Pelicans

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen

About the writer: Ari Baum-Cohen’s first sports betting victory came in 1989 when he won his father’s office pool at age 8. Since then, he has been interested in many different types of sports betting. His first major futures win came in November of the 2001-2002 hockey season when he selected “field” (field included Jarome Iginla) at odds of 30/1 to win the National Hockey League goal scoring title.

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