Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season
Hello Frozen Assets Fans, how have you both been? How was your trade deadline? It's been three weeks since our last adventure together, and the landscape of the NHL has changed significantly. Detroit, Ottawa and Philadelphia have been slumping, the Pacific Division has emerged as the toughest division in the league, and Pittsburgh is now the favorite in the East. What a difference a few weeks can make.
This article is part 3 of a series investigating the best futures bets at different points of the season. Here are links to part 1 and part 2.
Here were the 10 best bets and rankings as of November 22, 2007:
10. Boston +10000
9. Columbus +7000 (Conference)
8. Ottawa +900
7. St. Louis +5000 (Conference)
6. New York Islanders +5000 (Conference)
5. Chicago +7000 (Conference)
4. Montreal +6900
3. Carolina +4300
2. Atlanta +10000
1. Philadelphia +8000
The early days were filled with optimism, mostly directed at the Central Division.
Here were the 10 best bets and rankings as of January 10:
10. Boston +10000
9. New York Islanders +5000 (Conference)
8. Carolina +4300
7. Calgary +5000
6. Detroit +1015
5. St. Louis +5000 (Conference)
4. Montreal +6900
3. New Jersey +5000
2. Phoenix +15000 (Conference)
1. Philadelphia +8000
How have the best bets changed from January 10th (previous rankings in parentheses)?
10. Phoenix Coyotes (2) Odds: +15000 (Conference) Site: 5dimes Status: Changed December 28th
With 15 games left the Coyotes are underdogs to make the playoffs. Wayne's boys have been playing hard and have been a different team since the early season acquisition of Ilya Bryzgalov. The Coyotes are 3 points out of a playoff spot and have demonstrated they can win away from home. Phoenix is available at +6600 to win the Conference at Betfred.
9. Nashville Predators (NR) Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Carib Status: Changed November 25th
The Predators were not expected to compete for a playoff spot after losing key players. Nashville's top 5 forwards, however, have stepped up their level of play and the Preds have been getting solid contributions from both goaltenders, especially 27 year-old first-year player Dan Ellis. The Predators are tied with the Avalanche for the seventh and eighth playoff spots. They are currently available to win the Conference at +3300 at 5dimes.
8. Detroit Red Wings (6) Odds: +1015 Site: Olympic Status: Changed October 29th
Despite a late-season slump, the Red Wings are the consensus favorite to win the Stanley Cup. They are seven points up on second place Dallas with two games in hand. The Red Wings are available at +410 to win the Stanley Cup at Betfair.
7. Philadelphia Flyers (1) Odds: +8000 Site: WillHill Status: Changed October 16th
I thought this bet would end the season at #1 in the best bet rankings. A late season ten game losing streak dropped the Flyers both in the standings and in my best bet rankings. The Flyers are 1 point ahead of Buffalo for the final playoff spot in the East. They are available to win the Stanley Cup at +3500 at Bet365.
6. Calgary Flames (7) Odds: +5000 Site: Betfair Status: Changed December 10th
Calgary has been finding many different ways to win this season. Life with Iron Mike, however, is not without it's controversy. He has been hard on Mikka Kiprusoff all season, and will work his players even harder now that playoffs are approaching. the Flames turned their season around when they ran the table on a six-game road trip earlier in the season. Calgary is currently tied with Minnesota for the Northwest Division lead. They are available to win the Cup at +2500 at Bet365.
5. Boston Bruins (10) Odds: +10000 Site: Carib Status: Changed November 26th
Boston has occupied a playoff spot for almost the entire season, yet it seems like most "experts" are waiting for them to fall from contention. Boston is a hardworking, overachieving team with excellent goaltending, much like the 2003-2004 Flames team that advanced to the Stanley Cup final. They are currently 6th in the East, four points behind division leader Montreal with one game in hand. Despite their strong play, the Bruins are still available to win the Cup at +5000 at Paddy Power.
4. Washington Capitals (NR) Odds: +8000 (Conference) Site: Betfred Status: Changed January 22nd
It has been a tale of two seasons for Washington. As they have played considerably better in the Bruce Boudreau era than they did to start the season. Can they catch a Carolina team that has played better as of late? Kudos to the Capitals for their deadline day acquisitions of Cristobal Huet and Sergei Fedorov. If the Caps make the playoffs, they can play with anyone in the East. Washington sits three points behind Carolina for the Southeast division lead with one game in hand. The Capitals are available to win the Conference at +2500 at Carib.
3. New Jersey Devils (3) Odds: +5000 Site: Betfair Status: Changed November 30th
Early projections on the Devils were skewed due to a nine-game road trip to start the season. Since then they have been one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. New Jersey is winning despite having scored the second fewest goals in the Conference. They have given up the fewest goals in the Conference, trailing only Detroit overall. the Devils have 82 points, one behind Conference leader Pittsburgh with one game in hand. They are available at odds of +1450 at Betfair.
2. Montreal Canadiens (4) Odds: +6900 Site: Betfair Status: Changed October 29th
I'm still waiting for the Canadiens to fade from the playoff picture. Don't think it's going to happen this time. The Canadiens will need to rely heavily on Carey Price and their NHL best powerplay if they are going to advance in the playoffs. For now they need to hold off Ottawa and Boston and win the Northeast crown. Les Habitants are tied with the Senators for the division lead with one game in hand. They are available to win the Cup at Expext at (generous) odds of +1900.
1. Dallas Stars (NR) Odds: +4300 Site: Betfair Status: Changed November 29th
The Stars have been the hottest team in hockey over the last two-thirds of the season and lead the difficult Pacific Division. They got better at the trade deadline picking up superstar Brad Richards. I should also note that Dallas was available at +3700 into early February. The only downside is that if they lose the Pacific division they will have to play Anaheim or San Jose in the first round. The Stars are second in the Conference seven points behind Detroit for the Conference lead. Dallas is available at +1200 at Expekt.
For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year