FROZEN ASSETS

Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season

Hello Frozen Assets Fans, how have you both been? How was your trade deadline? It's been three weeks since our last adventure together, and the landscape of the NHL has changed significantly. Detroit, Ottawa and Philadelphia have been slumping, the Pacific Division has emerged as the toughest division in the league, and Pittsburgh is now the favorite in the East. What a difference a few weeks can make.

This article is part 3 of a series investigating the best futures bets at different points of the season. Here are links to part 1 and part 2.

Here were the 10 best bets and rankings as of November 22, 2007:

10. Boston +10000
9. Columbus +7000 (Conference)
8. Ottawa +900
7. St. Louis +5000 (Conference)
6. New York Islanders +5000 (Conference)
5. Chicago +7000 (Conference)
4. Montreal +6900
3. Carolina +4300
2. Atlanta +10000
1. Philadelphia +8000

The early days were filled with optimism, mostly directed at the Central Division.

Here were the 10 best bets and rankings as of January 10:

10. Boston +10000
9. New York Islanders +5000 (Conference)
8. Carolina +4300
7. Calgary +5000
6. Detroit +1015
5. St. Louis +5000 (Conference)
4. Montreal +6900
3. New Jersey +5000
2. Phoenix +15000 (Conference)
1. Philadelphia +8000

How have the best bets changed from January 10th (previous rankings in parentheses)?

10. Phoenix Coyotes (2) Odds: +15000 (Conference) Site: 5dimes Status: Changed December 28th

With 15 games left the Coyotes are underdogs to make the playoffs. Wayne's boys have been playing hard and have been a different team since the early season acquisition of Ilya Bryzgalov. The Coyotes are 3 points out of a playoff spot and have demonstrated they can win away from home. Phoenix is available at +6600 to win the Conference at Betfred.

9. Nashville Predators (NR) Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Carib Status: Changed November 25th

The Predators were not expected to compete for a playoff spot after losing key players. Nashville's top 5 forwards, however, have stepped up their level of play and the Preds have been getting solid contributions from both goaltenders, especially 27 year-old first-year player Dan Ellis. The Predators are tied with the Avalanche for the seventh and eighth playoff spots. They are currently available to win the Conference at +3300 at 5dimes.

8. Detroit Red Wings (6) Odds: +1015 Site: Olympic Status: Changed October 29th

Despite a late-season slump, the Red Wings are the consensus favorite to win the Stanley Cup. They are seven points up on second place Dallas with two games in hand. The Red Wings are available at +410 to win the Stanley Cup at Betfair.

7. Philadelphia Flyers (1) Odds: +8000 Site: WillHill Status: Changed October 16th

I thought this bet would end the season at #1 in the best bet rankings. A late season ten game losing streak dropped the Flyers both in the standings and in my best bet rankings. The Flyers are 1 point ahead of Buffalo for the final playoff spot in the East. They are available to win the Stanley Cup at +3500 at Bet365.

6. Calgary Flames (7) Odds: +5000 Site: Betfair Status: Changed December 10th

Calgary has been finding many different ways to win this season. Life with Iron Mike, however, is not without it's controversy. He has been hard on Mikka Kiprusoff all season, and will work his players even harder now that playoffs are approaching. the Flames turned their season around when they ran the table on a six-game road trip earlier in the season. Calgary is currently tied with Minnesota for the Northwest Division lead. They are available to win the Cup at +2500 at Bet365.

5. Boston Bruins (10) Odds: +10000 Site: Carib Status: Changed November 26th

Boston has occupied a playoff spot for almost the entire season, yet it seems like most "experts" are waiting for them to fall from contention. Boston is a hardworking, overachieving team with excellent goaltending, much like the 2003-2004 Flames team that advanced to the Stanley Cup final. They are currently 6th in the East, four points behind division leader Montreal with one game in hand. Despite their strong play, the Bruins are still available to win the Cup at +5000 at Paddy Power.

4. Washington Capitals (NR) Odds: +8000 (Conference) Site: Betfred Status: Changed January 22nd

It has been a tale of two seasons for Washington. As they have played considerably better in the Bruce Boudreau era than they did to start the season. Can they catch a Carolina team that has played better as of late? Kudos to the Capitals for their deadline day acquisitions of Cristobal Huet and Sergei Fedorov. If the Caps make the playoffs, they can play with anyone in the East. Washington sits three points behind Carolina for the Southeast division lead with one game in hand. The Capitals are available to win the Conference at +2500 at Carib.

3. New Jersey Devils (3) Odds: +5000 Site: Betfair Status: Changed November 30th

Early projections on the Devils were skewed due to a nine-game road trip to start the season. Since then they have been one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. New Jersey is winning despite having scored the second fewest goals in the Conference. They have given up the fewest goals in the Conference, trailing only Detroit overall. the Devils have 82 points, one behind Conference leader Pittsburgh with one game in hand. They are available at odds of +1450 at Betfair.

2. Montreal Canadiens (4) Odds: +6900 Site: Betfair Status: Changed October 29th

I'm still waiting for the Canadiens to fade from the playoff picture. Don't think it's going to happen this time. The Canadiens will need to rely heavily on Carey Price and their NHL best powerplay if they are going to advance in the playoffs. For now they need to hold off Ottawa and Boston and win the Northeast crown. Les Habitants are tied with the Senators for the division lead with one game in hand. They are available to win the Cup at Expext at (generous) odds of +1900.

1. Dallas Stars (NR) Odds: +4300 Site: Betfair Status: Changed November 29th

The Stars have been the hottest team in hockey over the last two-thirds of the season and lead the difficult Pacific Division. They got better at the trade deadline picking up superstar Brad Richards. I should also note that Dallas was available at +3700 into early February. The only downside is that if they lose the Pacific division they will have to play Anaheim or San Jose in the first round. The Stars are second in the Conference seven points behind Detroit for the Conference lead. Dallas is available at +1200 at Expekt.

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen


February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

FROZEN ASSETS

TEN FUTURES BETS YOU SHOULD HAVE MADE OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE SEASON

Welcome to another exciting edition of Frozen Assets. Loyal readers, I hope you have missed me this week as much as I missed both of you. This week we are following up on our November 22 edition of Frozen Assets: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over The First Quarter of the Season.

Much has happened in the NHL since that article was written a month and a half ago – most of it was not positive news for us. The teams that I was hyping as having value early in the season: Columbus, Chicago, Boston, and others have cooled down. But hey, when you play long shots on overachieving teams, they often come back to reality. As some of the earlier long shots fade, other teams have stepped up their performance.

Here were the 10 best bets and rankings on November 22, 2007:

10. Boston +10000
9. Columbus +7000 (Conference)
8. Ottawa +900
7. St. Louis +5000 (Conference)
6. NYI +5000 (Conference)
5. Chicago +7000 (Conference)
4. Montreal +6900
3. Carolina +4300
2. Atlanta +10000
1. Philadelphia +8000

How have the best bets changed from November 22nd (previous rankings in parentheses)?

10. Boston Bruins (10) Odds: +10000 Site: Carib Status: Changed November 26th

After a 2-0 home win over Columbus on December 15th, the Bruins dropped 6 in a row, giving up over 4 goals a game during that span. They have since won 3 of 4. Which Bruins team will show up in the second half? In order to make the playoffs, Boston will have to recapture the title of “hardest working team in the NHL”. Tim Thomas has played well lately, but it looks like Patrice Bergeron is finished for the year. Boston is available at +7000 at Betfair.

9. New York Islanders (6) Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Stan James Status: Changed October 10th

The Islanders are on a 4 game losing streak, but 3 of those 4 losses have come in extra time. Or, the Islanders have only lost 2 of their last 10 games in regulation. It’s all about how you spin the numbers. Ted Nolan has been getting the most out of limited talent, and the Islanders have been scoring more goals lately. The last 5-playoff spots in the East are wide open at this point. Why can’t a hard working team with stellar goaltending sneak into the post season? The Islanders are available at +3500 (to win the Conference) at Stan James.

8. Carolina Hurricanes (3) Odds: +4300 Site: Betfair Status: Changed October 12th

Carolina at +4300 slipped 5 spots in the rankings. They have gone 10-12-1 since the last rankings came out, allowing their Southeastern division rivals to catch up to them. Cam Ward has also been shaky, as the ‘Canes have given up the 4th most goals in the NHL. No more excuses for Carolina; they must establish dominance in their weak division to be taken seriously once the postseason starts. Carolina is available at +2600 at Betfair.

7. Calgary Flames (NR) Odds: +5000 Site: Betfair Status: Changed December 10th

Calgary is (sorry I couldn’t resist) on fire! In their last 17 games they are 12-2-3. Less then a month ago they were available at +5000 at Betfair and out of a playoff spot. Now they are one point away from the division lead. Unlike Flames teams of recent years, this year’s team is winning with their offense. Jarome Iginla and Kristian Huselius are on pace for career years and the Flames are third in the Conference in scoring. Calgary is available at odds of +3300 at Betdirect.

6. Detroit Red Wings (NR) Odds: +1015 Site: The Greek Status: Changed October 29th

Perhaps I made a mistake leaving Detroit off the list last time. They are the only dominant team in the league, so having the best odds on them should make a list of best bets. Detroit is a mind blowing 26-1-1 against non-divisional opponents! They are currently +450 at Betdirect.

5. St. Louis Blues (7) Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Carib Status: Changed December 2nd

The Blues move up two spots despite a poor second quarter of the season. After a rough streak where the Blues won 2 of 10 games, they are seemingly back on track. They occupy the 8th spot in the West with games in hand. If the Blues are to contend in the Western Conference, they must rely on Manny Legace and his 2.06 Goals Against Average. Stan James is offering St. Louis to win the Conference at +2800.

4. Montreal Canadiens +6900 (4) Odds: +6900 Site: Betfair Status: Changed October 29th

The Habs remain the 4th best bet of the season thus far. Halfway through the season they have not faded and their power play is still tops in the league. Can they keep it up (unlike last year)? Les Habitants are available at +4200 at Betfair.

3. New Jersey Devils (NR) Odds: +5000 Site: Betfair Status: Changed November 30th

New Jersey enters the rankings as the third best bet of the year. We should have known the Devils would play better then their early season record indicated. Starting the season on a 9 game road-trip skewed their record early in the season. After climbing above .500 (including a 9 game winning-streak) it took a while for the odds to reflect the second quarter success of the Devils. Brodeur & Co. sit in second place in the Eastern Conference, 17-5-1 in their last 23 games. The best odds on New Jersey to win the Stanley Cup is +1800 at Betfair.

2. Phoenix Coyotes (NR) Odds: +15000 (Conference) Site: 5Dimes Status: Changed December 28th

Most people predicted the Coyotes would finish at or near the bottom of the Western Conference. While there is plenty of season left, Phoenix is on a 5 game winning streak and is two points out of a playoff spot. They also have one of the best road records in the league. The Great One is getting the most out of his young team, and at +15000 to win the Western Conference they enter the rankings as the second best bet of the year so far. The odds posted by 5dimes were only up for a few days; either they realized that +15000 was too generous, or someone hit them hard. Phoenix is still a good play at their current price of +7000 to win the Western Conference at Stan James.

1. Philadelphia Flyers (1) Odds: +8000 Site: William Hill Status: Changed October 16th The Flyers struggled for a period in the second quarter of the season, but they have bounced back to win 5 of 6. The Flyers offense gets a boost as Simon Gagne is expected to return tonight against the Rangers. Not much else to say about this bet other than “William Hill what were you thinking?” The Flyers are available at +2600 at Betfair.

Honorable Mentions:

Ottawa Senators (8) Odds: +900 Site: Wagerstreet Status: Changed October 16th
Atlanta Thrashers (2) Odds: +10000 Site: Carib Status: Changed November 26th

It has been hard for me to let go of Chicago and Columbus, two underdog teams that were playing well at the start of the season. Unfortunately, the Western Conference is unfolding according to pre-season expectations. But hey, it’s never too late to say “it’s still early.”

For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum Cohen

About the writer: Ari-Baum Cohen's first sports betting victory came at age 8 when he won his father's office pool. He screamed like a 14 year-old girl at a Jermaine Dupri concert when Tampa Bay (had at +3500 to win Cup) and Calgary (had at +15000 to win Cup) made the Stanley Cup finals.

January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

FROZEN ASSETS

Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season

Welcome to another action packed edition of Frozen Assets. Every week I offer you, my loyal minions, general tips to help manage your bankroll and analysis of the hockey futures market.

Last week we finished up a two-part segment on “the betting exchange”. This week I would like to focus solely on hockey futures. With the first quarter of the season behind us, I would like to count down the Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season. The good news: some of these bets are still available.

10. Team: Boston Bruins Odds: +10000 Site: Carib Status: Available

Boston was not expected to compete for a playoff spot. Then they lost their starting goaltender Manny Fernandez and one of their top scorers Patrice Bergeron. The Bruins have kept it together though, with Tim Thomas playing at the top of his game, and Phil Kessel picking up the offensive slack. Boston is competing for a playoff spot, they are above .500 and they are available at +10000.

9. Team: Columbus Blue Jackets Odds: +7000 (Conference) Site: Bet365 Status: Changed October 14th

Columbus has exceeded expectations to start the season. Though they are currently slumping, they are still above .500 and playing hard for Coach Hitchcock (especially Rick Nash). Though these Bet365 odds changed on October 14th, The Blue Jackets were available to win the Stanley Cup at odds of +12500 as recently as two-and-a-half weeks ago.

8. Team: Ottawa Senators Odds: +900 Site: Wagerstreet Status: Changed October 16th

After wining the Eastern Conference and starting the season 5-1-0 (on their way to a 13-1-0 start) the Senators quickly established themselves as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. +900 is a solid price to have on the consensus favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup.

7. Team: St. Louis Blues Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Carib Status: Available

I was excited when St. Louis was available on November 9th at odds of +6600 to win the Stanley Cup. A week later, Carib posted odds on them to win the Conference at +5000 and +10000 to win the Cup. Then the Blues won four in a row including a victory over the Red Wings. The result? Still available at odds of +5000. St. Louis is 11-8-0, good for 9th in the Western Conference (2 points away from fourth).

6. Team: New York Islanders Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Stan James Status: Changed October 10th

To the surprise of most, the Islanders made the playoffs last year. The formula? Top tier goaltending and a hard-working, over achieving team with limited scoring ability. Remind you of any other Ted Nolan teams? The Isles were 3-1-0 when these odds were changed but were available at +4000 last week. They are still available at +3500 at Canbet. Currently the Islanders are 11-7-0.

5. Team: Chicago Blackhawks Odds: +7000 (Conference) Site: Bet365 Status: Changed October 14th

I know. Chicago was only 3-2-0 when the odds were changed. How were you supposed to know? Well, two wins over Detroit (4 of Detroit’s 6 losses have come to Chicago – Golden State vs. Dallas, anyone?), and their young talent making an immediate impact should have tipped you off. Odds of +12500 and +10000 to win the Stanley Cup were available into November. Currently the best odds on the Blackhawks to win the conference is +3500 at Stan James - I would recommend that price.

4. Team: Montreal Canadiens Odds: +6900 Site: Betfair Status: Changed October 29th

By the time the odds on the Canadiens changed they were already 6-2-2, their powerplay was the best in the league (still is), and they were getting solid goaltending from Cristobal Huet and Carey Price. Few people expected Montreal to compete in the Eastern Conference. That could explain why it took until October 29th for the odds to change.

3. Team: Carolina Hurricanes Odds: +4300 Site: Betfair Status: Changed October 12

Two years removed from their first Stanley Cup victory the Carolina Hurricanes are playing like they were in 2005-2006. When healthy, Carolina boasts three competent scoring lines and Cam Ward appears to be back to his 2005-2006 playoff form. The ‘Canes came out of the gate fast and were 3-1-1 including a 7-1 trouncing of the Maple Leafs a few days before the odds changed.

2. Team: Atlanta Thrashers Odds: +10000 Site: Carib Status: Available

Team is supposed to be average/above average. Team starts 0-6-0. Odds on team drop to reflect poor start. Coach is fired. Team wins 11 of 15 and occupies a playoff spot. Odds are the same as they were when team was 0-6-0. Classic formula for you to make money.

1. Team: Philadelphia Flyers Odds: +8000 Site: William Hill Status: Changed October 16

This year’s Philadelphia Flyers bear little resemblance to last year’s team. So why did the odds on the Flyers on October 16th resemble the odds you would expect to find on last year’s Flyers team? The Flyers started the season hot and were already 4-1-0 when these odds were taken off the board. Also, consider that the odds were posted by an A rated book that will not void or bet or refuse to pay you. This bet is the early favorite for futures wager of the year.

Hon Mention: Team: Nashville Predators Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Carib Status: Available

* * *

I’m the first one to admit that hindsight is 20/20, but there are almost always clues when a disconnect exists between a team and their posted odds. For example, the Atlanta Thrashers represent a textbook example of value – put $40 on them to win $4000 and enjoy the exciting wide-open style of Hossa and Kovalchuk.

For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen

About the Writer: Ari Baum-Cohen's first sports betting victory came in 1989 when he won his father's office pool at age 8. Since then, he has been interested in many different types of sports betting. His breakthrough futures win was at the end of the 2003 baseball season when he picked the Florida Marlins at odds of +7500 to win the National League.


FROZEN ASSETS November 15, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS November 9, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS November 1, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October 25, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October 18, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October, 11, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October 4, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS September 27, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS September 20, 2007