FROZEN ASSETS

Best Stanley Cup Futures Odds? You Can Bet On It

With four days remaining in the regular season there are seven playoff spots yet to be determined: five spots are still unclaimed in the East, while four teams vie for the final two spots in the West. For a more comprehensive look at the playoff picture, check out the most recent edition of Numbers Game.

At this point of the season the odds on premier teams such as Detroit, San Jose and Pittsburgh are relatively stable, while odds on teams trying to make the playoffs can fluctuate from one night to the next. Due to the fluctuation of odds from one night to the next, most sportsbooks will either take down their odds once the games start, or take them down altogether until the regular season is over. Betting exchanges, however, do not automatically take down their odds as it is regular jobbers like you and me setting the odds, not professional handicappers, and sometimes we forget to cancel our bets.

Even though sportsbooks take their odds down nightly that does not mean they are regularly updating their bets or that the posted odds are accurate. For example, Nashville has more points and an easier schedule than Vancouver, yet the odds on Nashville to win the Stanley Cup are generally longer than the odds on Vancouver to win the Stanley Cup.

Here is a table with the best odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup and the average price on them to win each series implied by those best odds. I have also included (my) probabilities on teams to make the playoffs, though this part of the table could be outdated by this evening. If you need more explanation on the table, read last week's edition of Frozen Assets.


Team...............Best Odds........Site.................Prob. of Playoffs.......Price/Round

Detroit..............+450.............betED......................1.0............................-189

San Jose............+630............Matchbook...............1.0............................-178

Pittsburgh.........+733............WSEX......................1.0............................-143

Montreal...........+1000..........Matchboook..............1.0...........................-122

Anaheim...........+1100..........betED........................1.0............................-116

New Jersey.......+1500..........5Dimes......................1.0............................+100

Minnesota.........+2700.........Betfair.......................1.0.............................+130

Dallas................+1850........Betfair.........................1.0.............................+110

New York (R)...+1600........Bet365......................0.97.............................+102

Colorado...........+3300........Centrebet...................1.0..............................+141

Ottawa..............+2000.........Bet365.......................0.83............................+102

Calgary.............+2800........5Dimes.......................0.85............................+123

Carolina............+3000........5Dimes........................0.90.............................+130

Boston..............+5000........BetFred........................0.79............................+152

Philadelphia.....+5000........BetFred........................0.76............................+150

Nashville..........+8500........5Dimes.......................0.65............................+173

Washington......+5000........BetFred.......................0.67............................+142

Vancouver........+5000........Gamebookers..............0.40............................+113

Buffalo.............+50000.......5Dimes.......................0.08............................+151

Chicago............+50000.......5Dimes.......................0.10............................+166


Finally the odds on Vancouver and Anaheim, the two most overrated teams odds-wise are closer to matching the true odds.

Questions, Comments, think I'm way off here? Leave a comment or send an e-mail to illegalcurve@gmail.com

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen


March 27, 2008: What's In a Futures Bet? A Look Behind Stanley Cup Odds
March 20, 2008: All About the NHL Divisions
March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?
March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year