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Wednesday, April 9, 2008

FROZEN ASSETS

Frozen Assets Playoff Preview Spectacular

Welcome to a special playoff preview Tuesday edition of Frozen Assets. I have gathered together the best odds on all of the teams to win the series, Conference, and Stanley Cup.

Back on October 18, 2007 and February 7, 2008 I discussed the factors influencing whether to bet on a team to win the Conference or to win the Stanley Cup. The main factor is what the average line would be between the team winning the East and the team winning the West. In my opinion, the minimum that Detroit, San Jose, or Anaheim would be favored over any team in the East is -150. That is the number we will be using to calculate whether to bet on a team to win the Conference or to win the Cup.

For each series, I will determine what the best play is according to the numbers. I have tried (for the most part) to keep my opinions regarding who I think is going to win to myself. I have never made money going with "what I think" - I only know what the numbers tell me.

Eastern Conference

Team………....Series Odds…...............Conference Odds……….Cup Odds……..

(1) Montreal…(-316)..Pinnacle…..........(+400)..BetED………….(+1000)..Unibet

(8) Boston……(+300).BetFred…........(+2500)..StanJames……..(+5000).
StanJames

Ari says: Mtl +400 – If Montreal is -316 to beat Boston then the average odds on them to win the next two series’ is -105. The Habs would be favored over all teams in the East with the exception of Pittsburgh.

Team………....Series Odds…...............Conference Odds……….Cup Odds……..


(2) Pittsburgh....(-256)...
Pinnacle….....(+300)..BetED………….(+850)….BetSafe

(7) Ottawa…....(+250)...
BetED….......(+900)...Intertops……….(+2300)..BetED

Ari says: Pittsburgh +300. If Pittsburgh is -256 to beat Ottawa then the average odds on them to win the next two series’ is -143. The Penguins should be at least -150 against any team in the East.

Team……….........Series Odds…...............Conference Odds……….Cup Odds……..

(3) Washington…….(-135)...Carib……......(+900)…Jetbull………..(+2200)…
BetED

(6) Philadelphia……(+145)..
BetED…........(+1800)..Carib………….(+4000)….Carib

Ari says: Take the arbitrage opportunity. By betting on Washington at -135 at Carib and Philadelphia at +145 at BetED, you are able to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome of the series.

Team……….........Series Odds…...............Conference Odds……….Cup Odds……..

(4) New Jersey……(+105)..
Pinnacle….......(+754)..Pinnacle………..(+1800)..Betfair

(5) New York (R)…(-110)..
BetFred…........(+792)..Pinnacle………..(+1711)…Pinnacle

Ari says: Why are the Rangers favored to win the series yet the Devils have lower odds to win the Conference? Based on the odds, I would pass on both of those teams to win the Conference or Stanley Cup. I would, however, take the Rangers at -110 to win the series.

Western Conference

Team………....Series Odds….....................Conference Odds……….Cup Odds……..

(1) Detroit……(-484)..
Pinnacle…..............(+350)..BetED………….(+450)..BetED

(8) Nashville…(+444)..
Pinnacle…............(+3300).Canbet………….(+6600).StanJames

Ari says: Take Detroit +350 to win the Conference. If they are -484 to beat Nashville then they would be -109 on average to win the next two series’. I don’t think they will beat San Jose, but they will be favored against them.

Team………....Series Odds….....................Conference Odds……….Cup Odds……..

(2) San Jose…...(-300)..
Pinnacle…..........(+400)..Gamebookers…..(+530)..Matchbook

(7) Calgary……(+290)..
BetED…...........(+1800).Gamebookers…..(+3000).Carib

Ari says: Take the Sharks at +400 at Pinnacle. Given they are -300 to beat Calgary, to get value out of the Sharks Conference bet they would have to be -107 the rest of the way. Though they will probably be slight underdogs in Detroit, if there are no upsets in the first round, San Jose would play Minnesota instead of Anaheim and be considerable favorites.

Team………....Series Odds….....................Conference Odds……….Cup Odds……..

(3) Minnesota…..(-110)..
Pinnacle…...........(+1600).Gamebookers….(+2400).Betfair

(6) Colorado……(+110)..
BetFred…...........(+1800).Gamebookers….(+2800).StanJames

Ari says: This series gives me a headache. It should be tightly contested and go 7 games. Betting on either of these teams to win the Conference means that if they advance to the next round you will have them on average at +200 to win each of their next series’. I would lay off this series.

Team………....Series Odds….....................Conference Odds……….Cup Odds……..

(4) Anaheim……(-210)..
Pinnacle…..........(+500)..BetED………..(+820)..Matchbook

(5) Dallas……….(+200)..
Pinnacle........…(+1843).Pinnacle……...(+2222).Pinnacle

Ari says: Anaheim continues to be overrated. They should be favored in this series but closer to -170. I don’t think Dallas will win, but they are a great team and there is value on them at +200.

Good luck on all your bets, but unlike the NHL regular season, you don't need to bet on playoffs to make them entertaining.

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen


April 3, 2008: Best Stanley Cup Futures Odds? You Can Bet On It
March 27, 2008: What's In a Futures Bet? A Look Behind Stanley Cup Odds
March 20, 2008: All About the NHL Divisions
March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?
March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

Ballhype: hype it up!

4 comments:

Richard Pollock said...

I think Anaheim will win, but is Dallas that much worse??? I like the odds in that series.

Steve Werier said...

that arbitrage move is money - no pun intended.

that's not hockey knowledge, it's investment advice...you really are a Jack of all trades, Ari.

Ari Baum-Cohen said...

The Anaheim/Dallas line is a combination of Anaheim being overrated (all season) and Dallas not getting enough respect (particularly at the end of the season).

Ari Baum-Cohen said...

The arbitrage is there but most people don't have the bankroll to tie up the funds to make it meaningful. That's why betting exchanges are great. You can risk large sums of money without tying up all of your funds.