FROZEN ASSETS

All About the NHL Divisions





Tonight is the final night that teams play games outside of their division. As a result of the new NHL schedule, the last eight games of the season are played intra-divisionally. Each team plays the other two teams in their division twice: once at home and once on the road.


Western Conference

While almost every game is essential at this stage of the season, the Northwest Division, with four teams separated by three points and Edmonton making a late run will likely provide the closest race down the stretch. In the Central, the only meaningful games involve Nashville, and they have little margin for error as they sit four points out of the final playoff spot. San Jose will most likely win the Pacific division, and the most interesting battle out of the NHL's strongest division is whether Anaheim or Dallas will have home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Phoenix is barely alive, but the Coyotes have the best divisional record at 17-7-0.


Eastern Conference

The Atlantic division has tightened up due to the surging New York Rangers. New Jersey, Pittsburgh, and the Rangers all have a legitimate shot to win the division. Philadelphia is clinging to a one-point lead over Buffalo for the final playoff spot and will have a difficult finishing schedule. At least they have two games against the banged-up Islanders. In the Northeast, Montreal's two game set with Ottawa will likely decide who wins the division, and Boston's home-and-home with the Sabres will likely decide the Sabres' fate. Finally, in the hapless Southeast division Carolina, Florida, and Washington will take turns beating up on Tampa Bay and Atlanta. It is possible, but will be difficult for Washington or Florida to catch Carolina. Two losses probably means they playoffs are out of reach.

Before the season started I posted a preview of division betting as well as analysis. I also reviewed division betting on January 17th. Here are some highlights:

Western Conference

Northwest

The Northwest division is playing out as expected, with the top four teams all having a chance to win the division. The best odds of the four were on Minnesota at +420, followed by Vancouver at +320, Colorado at +285, and Calgary at +275. The Wild's three point lead means little with the many divisional games remaining. I recommended Minnesota and Vancouver, because the division was a toss-up so why not take the longest shots?

Central

Obviously the Red Wings were the clear favorite to start the season. The price on them to win the division was -163. This price means you would have to bet $163 to win $100. Detroit was the only team in the league given a better than 50% chance to win their division. They started strong and the division title was never in doubt. My recommendation was to lay the chalk and take Detroit.

Pacific

San Jose's recent winning streak has put them in command of the Pacific division. Starting the season the Sharks were available at +200 (bet $100 to win an additional $200), Anaheim was available at +125, and Dallas at +600. My recommendation was to take the Sharks at +200 because without Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim and San Jose were basically equal. Niedermayer is back, but Anaheim could not make up for their slow start and catch the Sharks. Dallas made a charge but is too far back to still be considered a legitimate threat.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

The Atlantic division is still undecided. New Jersey, Pittsburgh, and the Rangers can all still claim the Atlantic division crown. Of those three teams, New Jersey was the longest shot on the board at +500, followed by the Rangers at +225, and Pittsburgh at +220. The Devils are often overlooked, but any team with Martin Brodeur should be wagered on at +500 to win the division. I recommended passing on the Atlantic division, but I should have recommended New Jersey based on the "Brodeur Factor".

Northeast

The Northeast division battle is between Ottawa and Montreal. Montreal is up three points, but Ottawa has a game in hand. Montreal is the best value of all of the division bets as they were available at +1400. The best odds on Ottawa to win the division before the season was +100 - even money. I recommended Buffalo at +385 as a value play. To my (partial) credit, on January 17th I said "Watch out for Montreal, +1400 and currently eight points behind a struggling Senators team."

Southeast

It looks like Carolina will win the Southeast, but with all division games remaining, anything is possible. My original recommendation was any team besides Carolina. This is an example of focussing on process not results. I believed all five teams had a legitimate shot to win the division, and Carolina had the worst odds. I recommended Washington at +1400 strictly as a value play. It turned out to be a good recommendation, but not one that would net you anything other than a consoling pat on the back at the end of the season. Who knows? Maybe the Capitals or Panthers can make a late run.

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen



March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?
March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

FROZEN ASSETS

NHL Divisions: Then (start of season) & Now (now)

I have some good news for readers this week. For those of you that complained about the length of my articles, note the wider space available for writing on the blog. This will allow my articles to appear shorter.

Last week I ranked the 10 best bets you should have made over the first half of the season. Reflecting on those picks I realized that I made a mistake ranking Carolina at +4300 over Atlanta at +10000. Atlanta has been playing decently after their 0-6-0 start and now leads the Southeast Division. Seeing a new division leader in the Southeast prompted me to review the division odds as well as my picks for the division before the season.

The full September 27th article can be found here.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division

.........................Average Odds ..... Best Odds..... Site......................... Site Rating


Detroit ............... -230 ......................-163 ...........Skybet ...........................B+

Nashville ........... +337..................... +600 ......... Betsafe ....................... (NR)

St. Louis .............+1043................... +1200........ Skybet........................... B+

Columbus ......... +2063 .................. +2500........ Skybet........................... B+

Chicago ............. +2113..................... +2800...... .Skybet........................... B+


My play: Detroit -163

I said: "Although I hate laying chalk (taking a favorite at odds of less than even money) on a futures bet, Detroit is the clear favorite to win the division and could run away with the Division early. This two unit investment could pay out by December."

Analysis: Wow! Predicting Detroit to win the division. I am a geeneeus.

Northwest Division

.........................Average Odds.....Best Odds.....Site......................... Site Rating


Colorado .......... +251.................... +275 ...........Stan James....................B

Vancouver......... +259................... +320 ...........Betsafe........................ (NR)

Calgary.............. +261 .................. +285.............Betsson ......................... B-

Minnesota .........+341................... +420 ...........Betsafe .........................(NR)

Edmonton ........ +1383................ +2200...........Skybet............................ B+


My play: I passed

I said: "The Northwest division is a toss up between Colorado, Calgary, Vancouver, and probably Minnesota."

Analysis: Again no earth-shattering predictions here. All four teams are separated by two points. Best bets from this group are Vancouver at +320 and the Wild at +420.

Pacific Division

.........................Average Odds..... Best Odds..... Site......................... Site Rating


Anaheim ...........+111 ....................+125 ..............Skybet .................... B+

San Jose ...........+159.....................+200..............Gamebookers........ B-

Dallas ...............+469 .................. +600..............Betsson ...................B-

Los Angeles .....+1450................. +2000............Stan James............. B

Phoenix ............+2625..................+3300............Gamebookers.........B-


My play: San Jose +200

I said: "With Scott Niedermayer’s return to Anaheim uncertain and San Jose having basically the same team as last year (minus Bill Guerin but with a young, improving defense), I see no reason why they cannot match the Ducks stride for stride."

Analysis: Good for me. San Jose is one point up on Anaheim with three games in hand. San Jose was able to build up a lead with Niedermayer out. Can they hold on? Maybe Dallas at +600 is the best bet but I would still rather have San Jose at +200.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

.........................Average Odds.....Best Odds.....Site.........................Site Rating


Pittsburgh...........+197 ..................+220............Betsafe.......................(NR)

NY Rangers.........+203..................+225............Gamebookers.............B-

New Jersey.........+400..................+500............Betsafe.......................(NR)

Philadelphia.......+413...................+450.............Skybet..........................B+

New York (I)......+1225.................+1500...........Unibet........................(NR)


My play: Pass

I said: "Like the Northwest Division, the Atlantic Division is also too close to call. Comparing the average odds of each team to win with the highest odds of each team to win, there is no value in the Atlantic Division. This is an easy pass."

Analysis: Looks like the Devils at +500 were the best bet out of these five teams. The Atlantic is the most competitive division thus far, as all five teams are within six points of each other. Note: New Jersey has played only 19 of their 45 games at home.


Northeast Division

.........................Average Odds ..... Best Odds..... Site......................... Site Rating


Ottawa...............-132......................+100..............Skybet......................B+

Buffalo...............+257.....................+385..............Betsson.....................B-

Toronto.............+819.....................+1200............Stan James..............B

Montreal...........+1016...................+1400............Skybet.......................B+

Boston...............+1775....................+2000...........Skybet......................B+


My play: Buffalo +385

I said: "Buffalo is strictly a value play. I don’t think Buffalo will finish ahead of Ottawa in the standings, but I still like them for 1.5 units at +385."

Analysis: Oops. Buffalo was strictly a value play. They are never going to catch Ottawa. Watch out for Montreal though, +1400 and currently eight points behind a struggling Senators (two wins in regulation over last eight games) team.


Southeast Division

.........................Average Odds.....Best Odds.....Site.........................Site Rating


Tampa Bay..........+248...................+350...........Betsafe........................(NR)

Carolina..............+263....................+300..........Gamebookers...............B-

Atlanta................+274....................+350...........Stan James....................B

Florida................+425....................+600..........Betsson...........................B-

Washington........+903...................+1400.........Skybet.............................B+


My play: Washington +1400, anyone besides Carolina

I said: "The Southeast is my favorite division from a wagering perspective. All five teams have a legitimate chance to win. Washington is strictly a value play, as I don’t think they will win, but I expect all five teams to compete for the division. At odds of +1400 it can’t hurt to take a shot at 1.5 units."

Analysis: The Capitals will not be able to recover from the loss of Michael Nylander. This division is once again wide open after Carolina jumped out to an early lead before struggling over the last two months.

Other than the Central and the Northeast, NHL divisions are wide open. What's your take?

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen, or as my friends like to call me, ABC.

About the writer: Ari-Baum Cohen's first sports betting victory came at age 8 when he won his father's office pool. He screamed like a 14 year-old girl at a Jermaine Dupri concert when Tampa Bay (had at +3500 to win Cup) and Calgary (had at +15000 to win Cup) made the Stanley Cup finals.

January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

FROZEN ASSETS

Opening Your First Sportsbook? Wondering How to Find the Site for You?

When I was 18 I opened up my first account at an online sportsbook. A friend had told me about a magical cyber-place where you can make bets sitting at your computer. The alternative to this convenient method was a provincially run lottery that required betting be made at a retailer. In addition to having to trudge out in the middle of the prairie winter to place bets at lottery retailers, the odds available at these online sportsbooks were far more favorable for the player than the provincially run lotteries.

I signed up, deposited money, and began draining my account one $5 parlay at a time. I played exclusively at Wagerstreet for almost three years and never had a problem. Eventually, as I became more interested in shopping for odds and less interested in parlay betting, I opened up accounts at other sportsbooks and stopped paying regular visits to Wagerstreet. The site was purchased by Olympic Sportsbook and continues to thrive.

Now I have accounts at many sportsbooks - some I have had positive experiences, some not so positive. I realize now that I was lucky to not have problems with Wagerstreet. They are a great book, but I just as easily could have stumbled on a book that would not pay me. Some sportsbooks are reputable, others are deposit-only. At the end of the day, the value of a winning bet at an online sportsbook is like a piece of art, a beanie baby, or a hockey card: it is only worth what people are prepared to pay you for it.

Why am I sharing this nostalgic, uplifting tale with you? Well, a reader who was considering opening their first online sports betting account asked me to recommend a few sites. While ultimately the right decision depends on what you are looking for, there are information and resources I know about now that I wish I knew about the first (and only) time I got scammed by a sportsbook.

1. Are these people actually going to pay me?

While I was lucky to have chosen Wagerstreet, numerous people get scammed by sportsbooks that are only interested in your deposit and have no intention of paying you. The first place you should look when considering a sportsbook is Sportsbook Review. They are a website dedicated to ensuring the player is treated fairly by the sportsbook. They have ratings, reviews, and blurbs on hundreds on sportsbooks. I would recommend only playing at sportsbooks rated B- or higher. They also have a list of scam sportsbooks, as well as a Scam Alert. Reserach your book thoroughly before giving them your money and credit card number.

2. What do I want out of my sportsbook?

While sportsbooks essentially offer comparable odds, there are differences that are worth noting. Knowing what you want from a sportsbook will help you narrow your choices down.

a. What type of bet will I be making?

Will I be betting on single games? Parlays? Futures?

If you are betting on single games, you should be using either a betting exchange or a reduced juice sportsbook. I described the basics of betting exchanges and the benefits of betting exchanges in previous editions of Frozen Assets. A reduced juice sportsbook is a sportsbook that offers prices on games at less that the traditional -110 odds (bet $11 to win $10).

When betting parlays, make sure all bets can be included in your parlay. For example, at betED, often you will not be allowed to include a large favorite or large underdog in a parlay.

If you are betting on futures, make sure your sportsbook regularly offers futures bets, and that the limits on your potential winnings are reasonable (I tried to bet on Golden State at +12500 yesterday at Totesports and was offered $2 as my maximum bet). Also, as a general rule, the less often a sportsbook updates their futures odds the better.

b. What sports will I be betting on? What options are available for those sports?

In the sports betting world, hockey is not a major player. As a result, while almost all sportsbooks offer betting on hockey, few sportsbooks go beyond offering the traditional moneyline, handicap, and game total odds. If that is all you want to bet on then you do not have to be as discriminating when choosing sportsbooks. Some books however, offer alternatives to traditional hockey betting. Betting on whether an individual team will score more or less then a certain amount of goals, alternate totals and pucklines, three-way betting, 60-minute betting and betting on the point totals of individual players are all options that are available at certain books (5Dimes is the industry leader in offering betting options for hockey). Some sportsbooks and betting exchanges offer live in-game betting on events (only Stan James offers this option for hockey).

c. What are the methods/fees for withdrawing?

Some sportsbooks offer free payouts while others charge exorbitant fees. Some sportsbooks are flexible in their payout methods, while others have petty, senseless rules designed to delay your request. Call the sportsbook yourself and ask them what their methods and fees for payouts are.

d. Bonus Offers

A bonus offer means that the sportsbook will match your deposit up to a certain percentage, or offer you a free bet for depositing. To the recreational player, bonuses seem like free money. Bonuses, however, often come with a restriction known as a rollover requirement. A rollover is the amount of times you have to wager the amount equal to your initial deposit + bonus in order to request a payout. Example: a sportsbook offers a 20% bonus with a 5X rollover. You deposit $100 and receive a bonus of $20. You have to make $120 * 5 worth of bets ($600) before you can request a payout. By the time you have met your rollover requirement, it is often time for another deposit.

Some bonuses, particularly sign-up bonuses, are not onerous in their restrictions. Finding a good bonus at a sportsbook should not be a determining factor of where to open a sportsbook, but it is nonetheless of noteworthy consideration.

One final caveat on bonuses: a tactic of scam sportsbooks is to offer large bonuses so they can attract new players. They can offer these large bonuses to you only because they have no intention to pay you.

Those should be your main considerations when considering where to open a sportsbook. If you have any specific questions about opening a sportsbook, let me know and I will do my best to provide you with personalized advice.

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Examining the NHL's Best Division: The Central(?)

I wonder what the odds would have been on "Central division to have most points" at the start of the season? Not including overtime losses in the loss column, the Central is the only division in the league to have all 5 teams above .500. This would have shocked me at the start of the season (see my preview of NHL division betting before the season started). A few games into the season, however, it was obvious that Chicago, Columbus, and St. Louis were not going to be the doormats they had been for the last few years. Then, a few games later, the Predators started winning consistently.

There are two possibilities here: either it is too early in the season to make meaningful predictions, or these teams are legitimate contenders in the Western Conference. What do you think?

The Chicago Blackhawks (13-9-2) have made great strides from last season. Rookies Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane have been sensational, Patrick Sharp has become a short-handed sniper and a young defense has been holding their own. With Martin Havlat back, the Blackhawks add one of the league's premier scorers to an already skilled set of forwards. Unlike the three teams mentioned below, the betting public is aware of Chicago's turnaround, and as a result the best odds remaining on the Blackhawks are at betED where they are +6000 to win the Stanley Cup.

The St. Louis Blues (14-8-0) have played well since the firing of Mike Kitchen last year. Andy Murray has found a capable goaltender in Manny Legace, Brad Boyes is playing up to his potential, and Doug Weight and Keith Tkachuk are playing like they did when they were in their thirties. Every week I beg people to take the Blues at +5000 to win the Conference at Carib, and I know you are not listening or the odds would have changed by now. Once this price is gone you will not see anything close to it for the rest of the season.

Ken Hitchcock has given the Columbus Blue Jackets (11-9-4) experience and an effective system to work within. Rick Nash has bought into this system and is playing the best hockey of his young career. Pascal Leclaire has 6 shutouts in 18 games. Nikolai Zherdev is an early favorite to be nominated for the comeback player of the year award. Like the St. Louis Blues, Columbus is available to win the Western Conference at Carib at odds of +5000.

The Nashville Predators (11-9-2) were supposed to struggle after losing many of their key contributors last year. I don't know why the Predators are winning but they are. Dan Ellis has been spectacular between the pipes when given an opportunity, but the Preds only have one scorer in the top 67 (Martin Erat is 49th) and have one of the worst special teams in the conference. They are also available at Carib at odds of +5000.

Who knows how the Central division will play out over the season. I predict that at least three of the eight playoff teams will come from the Central. Maybe you should just open a sportsbook at Carib and put your money where my mouth is.

For illegal curve, I'm Ari-Baum Cohen.

About the Writer: Ari Baum-Cohen's first sports betting victory came in 1989 when he won his father's office pool at age 8. Since then, he has been interested in many different types of sports betting. His breakthrough futures win was at the end of the 2003 baseball season when he picked the Florida Marlins at odds of +7500 to win the National League.

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FROZEN ASSETS November 9, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS November 1, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October 25, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October 18, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October, 11, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October 4, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS September 27, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS September 20, 2007

FROZEN ASSETS

AVOIDING FRAUDULENT SPORTSBOOKS AND A PREVIEW OF NHL DIVISION BETTING




Last week, I presented my case as to why making futures wagers are an optimal style of wagering for the responsible casual sports bettor. I also went over some notable futures odds from the 2006-2007 NHL season. This week’s Frozen Assets will first offer strategies to protect yourself from fraudulent sportsbooks and then examine the odds for the NHL divisions futures market.

The motto of The Greek, one of the most well respected sportsbooks in the offshore wagering industry is “sweat the game, not the payout”. This motto was created in response to alleviate the common and reasonable fear that the money we send to degenerate strangers in foreign countries for the purpose of gambling will be returned to us along with our profits if we are fortunate enough to win. Futures bettors must play at multiple sportsbooks, and we must carefully research each one before choosing to deposit our money there.

The primary reason a person is able to successfully wager on the futures market is because of a lack of standardization in market odds. For example, sportsbook A could have Anaheim to win the Stanley Cup at odds of 7/1 while sportsbook B could have Anaheim to win the Stanley Cup at odds of 10/1. Thus wagering on futures requires “line shopping” at multiple sportsbooks. How do we know whether the sportsbook offering Anaheim at 10/1 is reputable?

Once you have found favorable odds at a sportsbook, your next step must be to research that sportsbook. This can be done easily at Sportsbook Review, a relatively independent website dedicated to helping the player avoid fraudulent sportsbooks. They have ratings of over 750 sportsbooks in their Sportsbook Review Rating Guide. They also offer other useful features including a Blacklist and a Recommended List. I recommend not playing with any sportsbooks having a rating of D+ or lower.

If a Sportsbook is not rated by Sportsbook Review, visit their Scam Alert section or their New Player’s Guide for tips on how to identify a fraudulent sportsbook. Remember, it doesn’t matter how much money you win until the cheque from the sportsbook is in your hand. Hopefully this is a lesson you do not have to learn the hard way.

The worst part about getting burned by a fraudulent sportsbook is that you don’t find out you are being scammed until after you win. It is only after you hit your long-shot and have thousands of dollars in your account that you realize the sportsbook you are playing at has no intention of paying you. By researching the sportsbook before sending them money, you are minimizing the risk to your bankroll and potentially saving yourself a Zdeno Chara sized headache.

Now that I’ve lectured you on the importance of being a responsible bettor that always researches the sportsbooks you play at before giving them money, let’s take a look at the NHL divisions market and see who is offering the best odds on each team to win their respective divisions…

In the world of online wagering, hockey is not a sport that is heavily wagered on. Unlike baseball, basketball, and football, division betting (in previous years) on hockey ends when the season starts. Also, division betting on hockey is only offered at a handful of books. The books I was able to find offering NHL division betting are: 5Dimes, Betsafe, Betsson, Gamebookers, Skybet, Stan James and Unibet.

Remember, we are not betting on who we think is going to win the division, we are looking for value. Let’s start with the Western Conference…

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division

.........................Average Odds ..... Best Odds..... Site......................... Site Rating


Detroit ............... -230 ......................-163 ...........Skybet ...........................B+

Nashville ........... +337..................... +600 ......... Betsafe ....................... (NR)

St. Louis .............+1043................... +1200........ Skybet........................... B+

Columbus ......... +2063 .................. +2500........ Skybet........................... B+

Chicago ............. +2113..................... +2800...... .Skybet........................... B+


Play: Detroit -163

For the last two years, Detroit and Nashville have beat up on St. Louis, Columbus, and Chicago. This year it looks like Detroit will beat up on Nashville, St. Louis, Columbus, and Chicago. Nashville is a tempting play at +600, and although I hate laying chalk (taking a favorite at odds of less than even money) on a futures bet, Detroit is the clear favorite to win the division and could run away with the Division early. This two unit investment could pay out by December.



Northwest Division

.........................Average Odds.....Best Odds.....Site......................... Site Rating


Colorado .......... +251.................... +275 ...........Stan James....................B

Vancouver......... +259................... +320 ...........Betsafe........................ (NR)

Calgary.............. +261 .................. +285.............Betsson ......................... B-

Minnesota .........+341................... +420 ...........Betsafe .........................(NR)

Edmonton ........ +1383................ +2200...........Skybet............................ B+

Play: Pass

The Northwest division is a toss up between Colorado, Calgary, Vancouver, and probably Minnesota. Looking at the available odds, nothing jumps out as having value. If you put a pair of Thermablades to my throat and asked me to pick a team, I would take the Canucks at +320, but I wouldn’t put any of my hard earned student loan money on it.



Pacific Division

.........................Average Odds..... Best Odds..... Site......................... Site Rating


Anaheim ...........+111 ....................+125 ..............Skybet .................... B+

San Jose ...........+159.....................+200..............Gamebookers........ B-

Dallas ...............+469 .................. +600..............Betsson ...................B-

Los Angeles .....+1450................. +2000............Stan James............. B

Phoenix ............+2625..................+3300............Gamebookers.........B-

Play: San Jose +200

With Scott Niedermayer’s return to Anaheim uncertain and San Jose having basically the same team as last year (minus Bill Guerin but with a young, improving defense), I see no reason why they cannot match the Ducks stride for stride. At +200, there is just enough value to make it a one unit play. Also, though I wouldn’t take them to win the division, does anyone else get the sense the Los Angeles Kings will sneak into the playoffs this year?



EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

.........................Average Odds.....Best Odds.....Site.........................Site Rating


Pittsburgh...........+197 ..................+220............Betsafe.......................(NR)

NY Rangers.........+203..................+225............Gamebookers.............B-

New Jersey.........+400..................+500............Betsafe.......................(NR)

Philadelphia.......+413...................+450.............Skybet..........................B+

New York (I)......+1225.................+1500...........Unibet........................(NR)


Play: Pass

Like the Northwest Division, the Atlantic Division is also too close to call. Comparing the average odds of each team to win with the highest odds of each team to win, there is no value in the Atlantic Division. This is an easy pass.

Northeast Division

.........................Average Odds ..... Best Odds..... Site......................... Site Rating


Ottawa...............-132......................+100..............Skybet......................B+

Buffalo...............+257.....................+385..............Betsson.....................B-

Toronto.............+819.....................+1200............Stan James..............B

Montreal...........+1016...................+1400............Skybet.......................B+

Boston...............+1775....................+2000...........Skybet......................B+

Play: Buffalo +385

Buffalo is strictly a value play. After losing Briere and Drury to free agency, Buffalo’s stock has taken a major drop. However, Buffalo’s team depth and Ryan Miller’s strong play will keep this team near the top of the conference. I don’t think Buffalo will finish ahead of Ottawa in the standings, but I still like them for 1.5 units at +385.



Southeast Division

.........................Average Odds.....Best Odds.....Site.........................Site Rating


Tampa Bay..........+248...................+350...........Betsafe........................(NR)

Carolina..............+263....................+300..........Gamebookers...............B-

Atlanta................+274....................+350...........Stan James....................B

Florida................+425....................+600..........Betsson...........................B-

Washington........+903...................+1400.........Skybet.............................B+

Play: Washington +1400, anyone besides Carolina

The Southeast is my favorite division from a wagering perspective. All five teams have a legitimate chance to win. Tampa Bay has major weaknesses and will be in trouble without Dan Boyle to start the season. I still would almost take a chance on them for one unit at +350. Carolina will contend but there is not enough value on them at +300. Atlanta might have the best chance to win the division at +350, but I am reluctant to play them because of the way they tanked in the second half of the season before being meekly eliminated by the Rangers in the opening round of last year’s playoffs. I like Florida to be a surprise team this year, and will probably find value on them at some point in the season. Taking them at +600 could, in hindsight, have been the largest division long-shot to win a division. Washington was competitive for the first half of last season, and is comprised of an improving young team. The acquisition of Michael Nylander will likely increase Alexander Ovechkin's production. Washington is strictly a value play, as I don’t think they will win, but I expect all five teams to compete for the division. At odds of +1400 it can’t hurt to take a shot at 1.5 units.



Those are my thoughts on each of the divisions; we will be sure to re-visit these predictions during and after the regular season. Remember, in the past division betting has not been possible once the regular season starts so get your bets in soon. If you have any thoughts, questions, or would like to share your predictions, feel free to share them in the “comments” section and I promise I will do my best to respond.

Remember: research your sportsbooks as well as your odds, because money in an offshore gaming account is like having a valuable piece of art: it is only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it.

For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen.

About the writer: Ari Baum-Cohen’s first sports betting victory came in 1989 when he won his father’s office pool at age 8. Since then, he has been interested in many different types of sports betting. His first major futures win came in November of the 2001-2002 hockey season when he selected “field” (field included Jarome Iginla) at odds of 30/1 to win the National Hockey League goal scoring title.