ESPN Profiles the Eastern and Western Conferences

Scott Burnside figures its never too early to start ranking the teams, so he has compiled a list of how all the NHL teams are looking for next year.

Read the Eastern Conference trends here.

Read the Western Conference trends here.

FROZEN ASSETS

How secure are the top 16?

Tonight, if the Canucks win and Kings lose, Los Angeles will be the first team officially eliminated from playoff contention. Sad. While not mathematically eliminated, many teams are long shots to make the playoffs.

EAST

Barring a 2007 New York Mets style meltdown, Pittsburgh, Montreal, New Jersey, Ottawa, and the Rangers are in the playoffs.
Carolina, Boston and Philadelphia should make the playoffs, despite the rumblings from certain Canadian media outlets regarding the chances of the Blue & White to make a late run. I heard from an unreliable source that the CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation for the 5% of you (.2 of a reader) that is (a) American (b) still reading this) has had to cancel original Canadian programming because of revenue that is lost when the Maple Leafs Miss the Playoffs.

Now is also a good time to mention that at least the final 8 games of the season are played against divisional opponents. If Carolina slumps during the final part of the season they would also likely be giving Florida and Washington valuable points.

Buffalo, the final team in the East that has a chance of making the playoffs has two wins in their last ten games.


WEST

Detroit is a lock to make the playoffs, so is the three headed monster from the Pacific Division. How is Phoenix going to survive six out of their final 8 games against San Jose, Anaheim, and Dallas? The Coyotes will have to start with wins in both of their games against Vancouver.

The Northwest Division is almost a toss up between Calgary, Colorado, Minnesota, and Vancouver. Look for more than a few three point games from these teams down the stretch.

Of the four, Vancouver is most likely to be caught by either Nashville or Phoenix (note: Phoenix must win tonight to be included with Nashville).

Edmonton, Columbus, and Chicago are seven points out of a playoff spot with twelve games left. These teams would have to go one notch below 2007 Colorado Rockies in order to make the playoffs.


Here are the standings and best odds as of March 13. I have ordered the teams by conference and points-per-game played. Note: I will only include a price at a betting exchange if there is more than $10 at the posted odds.


Eastern Conference


Team……........PPG…….…Best Odds......…Site....PPG Rank...Best Odds Rank

New Jersey…...1.23…………+1500….…Canbet...…...(4)….........(7)

Pittsburgh.........1.23…………+1200….….Beted...........(4)….........(3)

Montreal….......1.23…………+1500….....Beted............(4)….........(7)

Ottawa.........….1.20…………+1200…..…Carib............(8).............(3)

New York (R)...1.19………...+2500…..…Canbet..........(9)…..........(9)

Boston..………1.14…..…….+5000….....PaddyPower.(13)…........(16)

Carolina...........1.13…….......+4000.........Gamebookers(15)…........(14)

Philadelphia.....1.11….....….+4000….…Gamebookers(16)......…..(14)

Buffalo.........…1.06…….….+10000.......Gamebookers.(19)...........(19)

Washington…..1.04………..+8550....….Olympic.........(20)...........(18)

Florida..............1.03…...…...+32900….…Betfair.........(23)...........(25)

Toronto.............1.03…....….+20000….....Carib............(23)............(21)

New York (I)....0.99…….….+35000…...Betdirect........(26)...........(26)

Atlanta…….......0.96…….…+50000…....Bet365..........(28)...........(27)

Tampa Bay…....0.89…....…+100000…....Bet365..........(29)...........(29)


Western Conference

Team….….........PPG……………..Best Odds……Site….PPG Rank…Best Odds Rank

Detroit…...........1.40……………..+500…….....Beted….......(1)………..(1)

San Jose…........1.29……...…...…+1300…....…Beted...........(2)……......(6)

Dallas...............1.24…….…….…+1250….…...Betfair..........(3)…..........(5)

Anaheim...........1.21…………..…+825….…....Olympic.......(7)…….…..(2)

Calgary…........1.17………….….+2900……....Betfair........(10)…….…(11)

Minnesota....…1.16……………..+3500….......Betfair.......(11)….....….(12)

Colorado..........1.15…….….……+2750….......5Dimes......(12)…….......(10)

Vancouver.......1.14……………..+3500…...…5Dimes.......(13)……......(12)

Nashville.........1.10………….….+6000……...Canbet.........(17)..............(17)

Phoenix...........1.07………….….+22900..…....Betfair.........(18)…....…(22)

Edmonton.......1.04……………..+29900….…..Canbet........(20)….........(24)

Columbus.......1.04……………..+28900….......Betfair........(20).............(23)

Chicago…..…1.03………..……+15000…...…Betfair.......(23)..............(20)

St. Louis.........0.99……..………+50000…......Bet365........(26)............(27)

Los Angeles....0.85……………..+100000........5Dimes......(30)............(29)

For Illegal Curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen


March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

Tuesday Editorial: Does Seeding Even Matter?

With the NHL Playoffs less than three months away, the time has come to start seriously evaluating the playoff race. Prior to the NHL lockout, it was fairly easy to predict the majority of the teams that would qualify for the playoffs in the spring. Now, however, with parity becoming the new catch-word in the NHL, it has become almost impossible to predict who are the haves and have not’s going into the stretch drive of the season.

One needs to just take one look at the Western Conference standings to understand this phenomenon. Aside from the Detroit Red Wings, who are sitting atop the Western Conference at 78 points, seeds two through twelve in the conference are separated by a meagre ten points. Think about that for a second; only ten points separate a strong “playoff favourite” from a team that will be hitting the links in mid-April. With seeds two through eight (eight teams make the NHL playoffs in each conference) only separated by five points right now, if the playoffs were to start today, would any match-up constitute an upset? The only team that, in reality, could be upset is the Detroit Red Wings. While the Red Wings have had their fair share of playoff success over the years, they have also had their fair share of disappointments; an upset of this year’s version of the Red Wings wouldn’t be all that shocking.

If you thought the Western Conference was close, the Eastern Conference is separated from seeds one through eight by a total of twelve points. In fact, if the Southeast Division teams continue their embarrassing seasons to date, it appears one team in the Eastern Conference will be left out of the playoff with more points than the three seed (each division winner is guaranteed a spot in the top three of the conference). Aside from the Ottawa Senators, who are actually coming back to the pack, the conference is extremely close. In fact, only five points separate seeds two through eights. Again, this may sound repetitive but, is seed two really any better than seed eight? Not likely. Further, if seeds nine (New York Rangers) and ten (Washington Capitals) miss the eighth seed of the playoffs by a point or two, and the fifth seed by five or six points, are they that much worse than a “favourite” in their conference. I think not; in fact, the playoff team may have gotten an extra bounce or two over the course of the season and that becomes the difference between a successful and disappointing season for the organization and its fan base. It really is such a fine-line.

With all playoff teams so close together in the standings, does seeding really matter? If the third seed has two more points during an 82 game schedule than the sixth seed, does that make the third seed a better team? It most likely does not. Never mind the inception of the shootout, which taints point totals that “teams accumulate” because it really is an individual competition, that is, of course, gone come playoff time. Many readers may be thinking, “But c’mon these teams get home-ice advantage.” While that point is true, how important is a one game home-ice advantage in a seven-game series, in which the teams facing each other are basically equal? It is somewhat important, but that’s only if the series is extended to seven games, and that didn’t happen all that much in the 2007 playoffs. All in all, when two teams face-off in this fall’s playoffs and you hear the word “favourite” being used, take a second to really consider if that “favourite” is really any better than their opponent.

For Illegal Curve, I’m Richard Pollock.

FROZEN ASSETS

Second Best In the West?
Odds on the Western Conference Teams to Win the Cup

Welcome to Frozen Assets. Last week we examined the odds on teams in the Eastern Conference to win the Stanley Cup. This week, for each Western Conference team, I have compiled their starting odds to win the Stanley Cup (as of Oct. 11 Frozen Assets), highest odds, and best current odds.

Team.................................Oct 11..............Highest......Date........Current

Anaheim Ducks.................+1000..............+1400.......Nov. 8....+1050
..........................................Wagerstreet........Betfair.......................5dimes


Calgary Flames..................+2600.............+4900.......Dec. 8.......+4300 ..........................................Betfair.................. Betfair....................Betfair



Chicago Blackhawks........+15000...............+15000....Oct. 17...+5400
...........................................Canbet................Canbet.....................Betfair


Colorado Avalanche..........+2200..............+3900.........Oct. 27...+2700
..........................................5dimes..................Betfair..................Betfair



Columbus Blue Jackets.....+15000..............+15000.......Oct 25..+10000
..........................................Canbet..................Canbet..................Carib



Dallas Stars.......................+3300..................+4400........Nov. 29...+3000
..........................................William Hill............Betfair..................Centrebet


Detroit Red Wings...........+1015................+1015.......Nov. 10......+540
..........................................The Greek..........The Greek................Betfair


Edmonton Oilers..............+7500.................+21000....Nov. 30.....+15000
.........................................5dimes.................Betfair......................Centrebet


Los Angeles Kings..........+8000.................+20000......Now........+20000
.......................................William Hill.............Carib.......................Carib



Minnesota Wild...............+3300...................+3700.......Dec. 4.....+2400
.........................................William Hill...........Betfair...............Betfair


Nashville Predators..........+3900.................+10000......Nov. 26...+6600
...........................................Betfair..................Carib..................WSEX



Phoenix Coyotes...........+25000.................+25000.....Oct. 28..+20000
.........................................Canbet..................Betfair...............Bet365


St. Louis Blues...............+8900.................+10000.......Dec. 1...+6000
.........................................Betfair.................Betfair.................Betfair


San Jose Sharks..............+1650.................+1900.......Oct. 20...+1400
.........................................Betfair................Betfair.................Centrebet

Vancouver Canucks........+2000................+3900.......Nov. 16...+2200

..........................................Stan James........Betfair................Stan James



Last week, knowledgeable reader, I asked you two questions. First, at what point in the season does a team's record reflect their probability to win the Stanley Cup? Second, if that point is right now, then based on the odds I've posted today where is the value?

Seven points separate second place and thirteenth place in the Western Conference. If you don't have any long-shot futures on Chicago, Columbus, St. Louis, or Nashville, don't worry! There will be plenty of opportunities throughout the season to find value.

Teams to watch:

Though Columbus has cooled down lately, they play 11 of 14 at home and yesterday finished a 5-game homestand 2-1-2. The Blue Jackets are available at +10000 at Carib to win the Stanley Cup.

St. Louis has the third best points-per-game in the Conference. The health of goaltender Manny Legace, however, is a concern. The Blues are available at +6000 at Centrebet

Watch out for Calgary. Out of a playoff spot with an six-game road trip looming a few days ago, key wins in Chicago and Florida have them back to .500. If they can pick up a few more wins on their trip Calgary could find themselves in a playoff spot when they get home. The Flames are available at +4300 at betfair.

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen

About the writer: Ari-Baum Cohen's first sports betting victory came at age 8 when he won his father's office pool. He screamed like a 14 year-old girl at a Justin Timberlake concert when Tampa Bay (had at +3500 to win Cup) and Calgary (had at +15000 to win Cup) made the Stanley Cup finals.

FROZEN ASSETS December 7, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS November 29, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS November 22, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS November 15, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS November 9, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS November 1, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October 25, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October 18, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October, 11, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October 4, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS September 27, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS September 20, 2007

FROZEN ASSETS

DOGS BARKING IN THE WEST, ARE YOU BITING?

Welcome to Frozen Assets. Every week I offer tips for successful futures wagering and I examine odds in the hockey futures market. This week we will look at the odds for teams in the West to win the Stanley Cup. What has changed since October 11th?

With the NHL season in its early stages, it is difficult to know how much weight to give teams’ current records when determining whether they have long-term value. Will Chicago make the playoffs? Will Anaheim miss the playoffs? Futures odds on some teams have changed drastically over the last few weeks, while for other teams the odds remain the same.

Here are the Western Conference teams in order of points as of October 24th:

1. Minnesota Wild (7-1-1, 15 pts) Then (start of season): +3300 Now: +2000 (Centrebet)

With their excellent goaltending, team speed, and ability to play with a lead (except last night), this Wild team reminds me of the Flames team that lost to the Lightning in the Stanley Cup. If you were fortunate enough to buy futures on Minnesota at +3300, congratulations – you will not see a price close to that for the rest of the season. I would put a few units on them at +2000. When a team leading the conference is +2000 you have to put a few units on them.

2. Detroit Red Wings (7-2-1, 15 pts) Then: +950 Now: +1015 (The Greek)

My apologies for not discovering the odds of +1015 on Detroit at the beginning of the season. The odds at The Greek were not up when I wrote the October 11th edition of Frozen Assets. It is business as usual for the Red Wings, as they once again sit near the top of the conference standings. Play them at +1015, but lay off once the odds go below +1000. This will happen next time The Greek updates their odds, so it is now or never for a futures bet on the Red Wings.

3. San Jose Sharks (5-3-1, 11 pts) Then: +1650 Now: +1300 (Stan James)

For the last few years, the Sharks have been a team underrated by oddsmakers in the futures market. This year is different. While I am confident the Sharks are the current favorite for the Pacific division, I recommend a wait and see approach. Lay off them at +1300 or wait for them to go on a run and then grab the +1300 if it is still around.

4. Calgary Flames (5-3-2, 12 pts) Then: +2600 Now: +2500 (William Hill)

Not much has changed when it comes to futures odds on the Flames. They responded well against Minnesota after being embarrassed at home by San Jose in their last game. I would hold off on playing Calgary at +2500 – unless they go on an extended winning streak, they should be available at odds of around +2000 for the rest of the season. Until we have a sense of how they will play under Mike Keenan I would leave them alone.

5. St. Louis Blues (5-2-0, 10 pts) Then: +8900 Now: +7000 (Portlandbet)

The Blues have been a completely different team since Andy Murray took over the team. Legace has been consistent, and the Tkachuk/Boyes/Kariya line has been outstanding. St. Louis will contend for a playoff spot and is the best long shot of the young NHL season. My only warning to you before you spend all of your allowance at one place is that Portlandbet is not ranked by Sportsbook Review. I would take them at +6400 at Betfair instead.

6. Dallas Stars (4-2-2, 10 pts) Then: +3300 Now: +3900 (Betfair)

Why did the odds go up? The Stars are 4-2-2 and are finding ways to win. Though I like the fact that they are still +3900 despite being 4-2-2, there are more enticing options at this point of the season. If they are five games over .500 at the quarter pole and this price is still around then you should take it. Otherwise, spend your money elsewhere.

7. Chicago Blackhawks (5-4-0, 10 pts) Then: +15000 Now: +12500 (Portlandbet)

Have you watched the Blackhawks play this year? Watch one period and you will want to put some of your allowance on them. The same warning I gave for the price on the Blues applies to the price on the Blackhawks - take them at Betfair at +11000 instead. Sit back, relax, and enjoy your new favorite team – young, exciting, and loaded with skill and promise. If Martin Havlat ever comes back for an extended period of time this team will seriously contend for a playoff spot.

8. Colorado Avalanche (5-4-0, 10 pts) Then: +2200 Now: +2600 (Betfair)

The Avalanche were the pre-season favorites to win the tough Northwest Division. They have not played up to their potential as of yet. Leave them alone for now; +2600 isn’t enough for yo to bother with them.

9. Columbus Blue Jackets (4-3-1, 9 pts) Then: +15000 Now: +12500 (Centrebet)

See Blackhawks, except replace “young, exciting team loaded with skill” with “well coached, well disciplined team that is learning to win on the road”. Take them at Centrebet at +12500. After St. Louis, Columbus is the best long shot on the board (Chicago comes in at #3)

10. Anaheim Ducks (4-6-1, 9 pts) Then: +1000 Now: +1100 (Betfair)

If by some miracle the odds hit +2000 and then Scott Niedermayer comes out of retirement then lay down some units. Otherwise keep your units in your pants. This team cannot win on the road (unlike Columbus) and has struggled to look like a playoff team - a disappointing start to the season for the defending Stanley Cup champions.

11. Los Angeles (4-6-0, 10 8 pts) Then: +8000 Now: +10000 (Carib)

I like Los Angeles more than I did at the beginning of the year. The Kings have plenty of offense but lack solid goaltending. The current odds on them are decent, but there are better options out there. Los Angeles has improved since the beginning of the season, but hold off. I am confident that if they put together a winning streak, you will still be able to get them at favourable odds (probably around +8000) when they are above .500.

12. Vancouver (4-6-0, 8 pts) Then: +2000 Now: +2500 (Carib)

I would take St. Louis to make the playoffs over Vancouver. So why are the Blues +7000 and the Canucks +2500? Take away Roberto Luongo and this team is competing with Nashville and Phoenix for the worst team in the conference. Oh wait, they are doing that right now.

13. Edmonton (3-6-0, 6 pts) Then: +7500 Now: +10000 (Carib)

Despite production from their young, talented forwards, Edmonton is 1-6-0 in their last 7 games. I'm sorry Oilers fans, I know it is early but it looks like Sheldon Souray will not meet expectations and you will be cheering for whoever plays against the Flames come playoff time. Until this team can put together a few wins in a row, don't even think about it!

14. Phoenix (2-5-0, 4 pts) Then: +25000 Now: +30000 (Bet365)

You should have stopped reading this article after "wait, they are doing that right now". Phoenix is not making the playoffs.

15. Nashville (2-6-0, 4 pts) Then: +3900 Now: +10000 (Carib)

See above. Nashville is terrible.

Those are my thoughts on the West – if you have opinions about the Western Conference, feel free to post them in the comments section and I will do my best to respond. Next week we will look at the Eastern Conference. For those of you that bet on Carolina and Philadelphia congratulations – you have a season of fun ahead of you.

For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen.

About the writer: Ari Baum-Cohen’s first sports betting victory came in 1989 when he won his father’s office pool at age 8. Since then, he has been interested in many different types of sports betting. His first major futures win came in November of the 2001-2002 hockey season when he selected “field” (field included Jarome Iginla) at odds of 30/1 to win the National Hockey League goal scoring title.

FROZEN ASSETS October 18, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October, 11, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS October 4, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS September 27, 2007
FROZEN ASSETS September 20, 2007