To Win the Conference or to Win the Cup (2)?
Welcome to Frozen Assets. Last week I examined whether parity in the standings led to parity in Stanley Cup odds. There were numerous examples of teams that were either overvalued or undervalued when the odds on them to win the Stanley Cup were compared to their point totals.
Reflecting on last week's article I realized that parity does not exist in the NHL; parity exists within each conference. In inter-conference play the East is 46-52-11 while the West dominates at 63-36-10. Additionally, there is only one dominant team in the NHL this year, and they are in the Western Conference.
How do sportsbooks react to disparity between conferences in the NHL? One would think that odds on Eastern Conference teams to win the Stanley Cup would be more than double the odds to win the Conference. In the West (generally) odds on teams to win the Stanley Cup other than Detroit should be double or less than double their odds to win the conference.
Are they?
Note: If you choose to bet on a team...
Ari recommends you bet on that team to win the Conference
Ari recommends you bet on that team to win the Stanley Cup
*Implied Finals Odds (IFO) is the implied line on a team to win the Stanley Cup should they advance to the final according to the best odds available on each team to win the Conference and the Stanley Cup. For example, if a team is +4000 to win the Conference and +8000 to win the Stanley Cup their IFO is +100.
Eastern Conference
Team……......PPG.......Best Conf. Odds...Best Cup Odds.........Implied Finals Odds*
Ottawa…...........1.26……+225 (Olympic)....….....+614 (WSEX)…......(+173)....
Montreal…....…1.24…….+950 (5dimes)…...........+2500 (5dimes)…....(+178)....
Philadelphia......1.23….…+800 (Ladbrokes)........+1859 (Pinnacle)........(+132)....
New Jersey...….1.19……+900 (Gamebookers)....+2111 (Pinnacle)…....(+135)....
Pittsburgh……...1.19…...+900 (Gamebookers)....+2250 (Olympic)........(+150)....
Boston…………1.11…...+2550 (Olympic)…........+5400 (Betfair).........(+112)....
Buffalo………...1.08…...+4050 (Olympic)…........+8050 (Olympic)......(-101)....
New York (R)….1.07…...+1415 (Olympic) ..........+3050 (Olympic)......(+116)....
Washington....…1.04…...+4050 (Olympic)…........+8000 (Canbet).........(-102)....
New York (I).….1.00……+4000 (Stan James).....+8000 (Bet365)..........(+100)...
Florida.........…...1.00……+5000 (Stan James)....+16000 (Betfair)..........(+220)....
Atlanta………...1.00….....+4000 (Stan James).....+6600 (Betfred)..........(-165)....
Carolina…..…...1.00.…...+1815 (Olympic)…........+4561 (Pinnacle)......(+152)....
Toronto……......0.92…….+10000 (Stan James)......+15000 (Stan James).(-150)....
Tampa Bay…....0.91….…+7000 (Stan James).......+13000 (Bet365)........(-116)....
Average.............1.08............................................................................(+122)....
Western Conference
Team….…....PPG…..Best Odds……......Best Cup Odds............Implied Finals Odds*
Detroit……..1.56…...+145 (Olympic)…......+350 (5dimes).............(+141)....
San Jose…....1.23…...+900 (Stan James).....+1400 (Gamebookers)..(-155)....
Minnesota.....1.21…..+1400 (Gamebookers).+2550 (Olympic).........(-122)....
Dallas....…....1.21…..+1600 (Betfred)….......+2500 (Ladbrokes)......(-178)....
Calgary……..1.15…...+1600 (Gamebookers)..+2550 (Olympic).......(-168)....
Colorado…....1.15…...+2200 (Gamebookers)..+4550 (Pinnacle)......(+107)....
Nashville.......1.13…...+3300 (Gamebookers)..+6600 (5Dimes).........(+100)....
Phoenix….....1.11……+6600 (Ladbrokes)…+12500 (Ladbrokes)…...(+100)....
Anaheim…....1.11…....+645 (Olympic)…....+1015 (Olympic)...........(-174)....
Vancouver.....1.09…....+1615 (Olympic)….…+3050 (Olympic).........(-113)....
St. Louis........1.06...….+5000 (Gamebookers)..+10000 (Carib)…......(+100)....
Columbus…..1.04….…+5000 (Carib)……....+11000 (Betfair)...........(+120)....
Edmonton…..0.98….…+10000 (Gamebookers).+15000 (Betfred).......(-150)....
Chicago….....0.96….…+7000 (Stan James)…...+13000 (Bet365)…....(-116)....
Los Angeles..0.85…....+35000 (Stan James).….+62500 (Bet365)........(-127)....
Average........1.12.............................................................................(-122)....
From a wagering perspective, if your research indicates a team is likely to be successful, make sure that you are determining which odds, conference or championship are more favorable. If you are not able to determine which odds are better, the tiebreaker is to take them to win the conference.
Betting conference odds will allow you more flexibility in managing your risk. For example, if you are fortunate enough to win your conference futures bet and you think your team should win the Stanley Cup then you can put some or all of your winnings on that team to win the Stanley Cup. If you took the team to win the Stanley Cup and they lose in the finals then you don’t win anything...but you will have built character.
For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen
About the writer: Ari-Baum Cohen's first sports betting victory came at age 8 when he won his father's office pool. He screamed like a 14 year-old girl at an Elvis concert when Tampa Bay (had at +3500 to win Cup) and Calgary (had at +15000 to win Cup) made the Stanley Cup finals.
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year
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