FROZEN ASSETS

What's in a Futures bet? A Look Behind Stanley Cup Odds

How do we know if a futures bet is good value? Sure, if I told you to bet on Detroit or San Jose to win the Stanley Cup at odds of +10000 you would know that was a good bet. But would you know why? What does a futures bet represent?

Betting on a team to win the Stanley Cup requires five events to occur:

1) The team must make the playoffs.
2) The team must win the conference quarter-finals.
3) The team must win the conference semi-finals.
4) The team must win the conference finals.
5) The team must win the Stanley Cup.

A futures bet on a team to win the Stanley Cup represents the probability of those five events occurring. That probability is calculated by multiplying the likelihood of each event occurring.

Now that there are five games left in the regular season, we know that all teams are not equal. Some teams have made the playoffs, some teams are eliminated, and most teams fall somewhere in between.

Based on the best odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup and the probability that they will make the playoffs (caveat: strictly my opinion), it is possible to calculate the average odds on each team to advance for each round of the Stanley Cup.

(Before games of March 27 - except Boston/Toronto)

Team...............Best Odds........Site.................Prob. of Playoffs.......Price/Round

Detroit..............+400............Betfair......................1.0............................-200

San Jose............+840............Betfair......................1.0............................-133

Montreal...........+1150...........Betfair......................1.0............................-114

Anaheim............+800...........Matchboook..............1.0............................-137

Pittsburgh.........+1000.........Matchboook................1.0............................-122

New Jersey........+1400.........Bet365.......................0.97.........................-105

Ottawa................+1400.........Bet365.....................0.95.........................-106

Minnesota..........+3300........BetFred......................0.90.........................+135

Calgary................+2600........Betfair......................0.90.........................+122

Dallas..................+2200........Gamebookers............0.90..........................+113

New York (R).....+1800........5Dimes......................0.90..........................+103

Philadelphia........+5000.......Carib...........................0.83..........................+154

Colorado..............+3233.......WSEX.......................0.78..........................+126

Boston .................+6000.......Carib.........................0.73.........................+158

Vancouver............+3000......Carib..........................0.65..........................+112

Nashville..............+10000....BetFred......................0.60...........................+174

Washington..........+6600.....BetFred.......................0.37..........................+123

Edmonton.............+22500...5Dimes.......................0.14..........................+137

Buffalo...................+10000...BetFred....................0.22.........................+117

Florida..................+30000...StanJames...................0.09........................+128

Phoenix.................+80000...StanJames..................0.05........................+152

Chicago..................+80000...StanJames.................0.06........................+163

Columbus..............+99999...Carib.........................0.02........................+111


Questions, Comments, think I'm way off here? Leave a comment or send an e-mail to illegalcurve@gmail.com

For illegal curve, I'm Ari Baum-Cohen


March 20, 2008: All About the NHL Divisions
March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?
March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

Pre-Game Report

Here are some news and notes heading into tonight's eight game slate:

• Chuck Kobasew (leg) will be out of the Bruins line up for 4-8 weeks.
• Marc Savard (back) is out for tonight's game versus Toronto, and both his team's game over the weekend.
• Andrew Ference (knee) is out tonight.
• Scott Gomez (ribs) will surprisingly be a game-time decision tonight.
• Wade Redden (knee) is out for tonight.
• Martin Gerber gets the start in net for Ottawa.
• Alexei Zhitnik (healthy scratch) is not playing tonight for Atlanta.
• Kari Lehtonen gets the start in net versus the Panthers.
• Mike Smith (knee) is out of the lineup tonight for Tampa.
• Karri Ramo gets the start for the Bolts tonight.
• Jonathan Cheechoo (head, neck) is out again for the Sharks.
• Craig Rivet (upper-body) returns to the line up tonight.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Numbers Game: Gretzky is the only Great One

In 1982, Gretzky amassed an incredible 212 points. The following 5 seasons, he continued his phenomenal play scoring at least 183 points while leading the league in scoring each season. Lemieux also had some epic seasons. In 1988, he tallied 168 points, following that up with a 199 point season in 1989. Last year, Crosby, often dubbed the next Great One, scored 120 points which topped the NHL. Is there ever really going to be another Gretzky though?

To be fair, it would not be appropriate to use point production as the sole gauge of whether a player, like Crosby, is deserving of the “Great One” title. The NHL will almost certainly never see another player score 200 points. Today’s NHL is not the same free-flowing, offensive friendly game that Gretzky was able to exploit game after game in the 80’s.

Instead, comparing a player's point production to the rest of the players in that season provides a much better indication of how good that player is. In today's Numbers Game I compared the point total for the leading scorer in each season since 1980 to the player who finished second in scoring and the players who round out the top 5. There is no disputing that Gretzky is the best player of all-time.

When Gretzky scored 212 goals in 1982, he had 65 more points than the player who finished second and 74.25 points more than the average of the rest of the top 5. In 1987, Gretzky’s 183 points was 69.4% higher than the second ranked player, who scored 108 points, and over 71% higher than the average of the top 5. In fact, from 1982 – 1987 during his heyday, Gretzky scored at least 65 more points (44% higher) than the second leading scorer. By comparison, Lemieux’s highest differential was in 1989 when his 199 points was only 18.5% (31 points) more than the second leading scorer. Since the lockout, Crosby’s 5.3% differential was the highest, which was 6 points more than second place Thornton.

The numbers speak for themselves. In the last 25 years, no one has come close to Gretzky. And in the next 25 years, we will be saying the same thing. Gretzky did play hockey when the goal judge was far more likely to suffer from carpel tunnel syndrome, but so did the other players that played with him. Gretzky is the best player to every play hockey and he is the best player that will ever play.

If this has made you admire Gretzky's accomplishments even more, maybe that will sway you to vote 'yes' on Ilegal Curve's most recent poll. Feel free to use the comments section below to explain why he is/isn't the greatest of all-time.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

NHL Morning Papers--Western Conference (Thursday Edition)

Here are the Central Division morning papers:

• The long-awaited return of Darren McCarty to the Red Wings line up is going to take place on Friday. In more roster news, Dallas Drake (sternum) is a maybe for Friday, and Dominik Hasek (flu) is still expected to be out.
• The Blue Jackets responded to Ken Hitchcock last night with a 4-0 shutout of the Blackhawks. "To me, he's not a relevant player," said Hitchcock in reference to Jordin Tootoo and his antics on Tuesday versus the Jackets.
• There will be no cruising into the playoffs this season for the Predators, writes John Glennon.
• With no morning articles in the Post-Dispatch, I ventured over to beat writer Jeremy Rutherford's blog to find out that Scott Young was the last Blues player to score 40 goals. (Writer's note: How bored is Jeremy Rutherford???)
• In Chicago, it looks like any talk of a miracle run to the playoffs has fallen by the wayside, writes Chris Kuc.

Here are the Pacific Division morning papers:

• Shane Doan does a lot of things that fans may not notice, but his teammates sure do.
• With last night's 2-1 shootout victory over the lowly Kings, the Ducks clinched a playoff spot.
• Jonas Hiller saved the game last night for the Ducks, as he robbed Alexander Frolov on a breakaway with fifteen seconds remaining in the third period.
• People may think Christian Ehrhoff is having an off season, however, his point totals do not tell the whole story, writes David Pollak.
• While it may sound strange, the struggling Stars are looking forward to their visit to the HP Pavilion tonight, writes Mike Heika.

Here are the Northwest Division morning papers:

• "Today, we made sure we didn't give them any chances for free," said Wild defenseman Martin Skoula after his team's 3-1 bounce back victory over the visiting Oilers. If you thought Jacques Lemaire was kidding when he said he'd take away the "optional" skate, he wasn't, writes Michael Russo.
• The Oilers felt like they deserved better last night in Minnesota, but they did not dwell on the loss, and are now looking ahead. The Oilers are heading to Denver next, and the last thing they can do is feel bad for themselves.
• The Avalanche line of Stastny-Hejduk-Forsberg found instant chemistry, and led the team to a 6-3 dominating victory over the rival Canucks.
• Vancouver was handed their lunch last night in Denver, writes Iain McIntyre. The Canucks' playoff chances are not very secure right now, writes Ben Kuzma.
• The Calgary Herald does its best to hype Dion Phaneuf for the Norris Trophy. Meanwhile, one of the Flames' more unheralded players, Stephane Yelle, has more of an effect on his teammates than you might think. Finally, Bruce Dowbiggen figures it is time to stir the pot again, telling readers that this year's version of the Flames should have won the division in a walk.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Email any thoughts, ideas or suggestions to illegalcurve@gmail.com

NHL Morning Papers--Eastern Conference (Thursday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

• Alan Maki of the Globe & Mail gets Ken Hitchcock's take on why Guy Carbonneau is succeeding as head coach of the Canadiens.
• Dave Shoalts reminds readers that the Leafs' next GM is going to have to focus on the team's full body of work, not just their recent surge up the standings.
• Like so many teams in today's NHL, the Flames are relying on three players to take them to the promised land, writes Eric Duhatschek.
• Legendary hockey writer Red Fisher does not think Patrick Roy deserves the honor of having his number retired as a Montreal Canadien.
• Fans may not have had high expectations for Les Habitants, but Guy Carbonneau had higher expectations than some may think, writes Kevin Allen.

Here are the Atlantic Division morning papers:

• The Rangers and Devils face-off tonight and there may be some tension between Martin Brodeur and Henrik Lundqvist after Broduer's comments in a recent issue of SI. (Writer's note: People still read SI?) The Rangers will be getting Michael Roszival back in the line up tonight.
• With their recent success, the Flyers have suddenly gone from the hunted to the hunters, writes Tim Panaccio of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
• Sidney Crosby will return to the Penguins line up tonight and will be playing alongside Marian Hossa, writes Shelly Anderson. While he is not thrilled about it, Ryan Whitney will continue to play forward if that is where coach Michel Therrien puts him.
• The Islanders are giving the team's young players a chance to play in the NHL, but that has required a lot of travel because they are also trying to ensure Bridgeport's position in the AHL playoffs.
• "We need to win for the standings," said Devils coach Brent Sutter heading into tonight's game versus the Rangers. Even with their recent offensive struggles, the Devils aren't as worried about it as the press, says Zach Parise.

Here are the Northeast Division morning papers:

• Guy Carbonneau knew his team was capable of more than most prognosticators believed, writes Herb Zurkowsky. In light of the recent QMJHL brawl, some people are wondering about Guy Carbonneau and Patrick Roy's friendship, but you don't have to, writes Zurkowsky.
• The play of David Krejci has impressed the Bruins brass, writes Fluto Shinwaza. It is now being reported that Marc Savard has a broken bone in his back, however, the injury is not believed to be overly serious.
• Everyone is wondering how the Sabres will react to their awful third period on Tuesday, writes Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News. Derek Roy does not think he'll miss tonight's game versus the Senators with a charley horse.
• Brian Lee had an impressive debut with the Senators on Tuesday, and will be sticking with the big club. Meanwhile, Martin Gerber wants to play every remaining game on the Senators schedule.
• At the team's media outing yesterday, Leafs coach Paul Maurice took the blame for the team's poor play this season. Nevertheless, the team's is not officially eliminated from post-season play, and will continue their last gasp tonight at Boston.

Here are the Southeast Division morning papers:

• With the Capitals in town to play the Lightning, Erik Erlendsson discusses the greatness of Alexander Ovechkin in this morning's Tampa Tribune.
• If the Panthers want to take the next step, they need to add more natural talent, writes Ethan Skolnick. "We have to be desperate coming into these last five games,"said Panthers forward Nathan Horton.
• Tarik El-Bashir of the Washington Post has an interesting article about former Cap Jeff Halpern, and his recent trade from Dallas to Tampa.
• The Hurricanes have signed first-round pick Brandon Sutter to a three-year deal.
• The Thrashers have their share of underachieving veterans, but Niclas Havelid is not among them, writes Craig Custance.

The Western Conference morning papers will be posted with the hour...

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Email any thoughts, ideas or suggestions to illegalcurve@gmail.com

Life in Pro Hockey with Rob Schremp (Fifth Entry)

Note: Periodically throughout the season, Oilers' prospect and current Springfield Falcons' winger Rob Schremp will provide Illegal Curve readers with a unique insight into the world of professional hockey.

For Rob's fifth entry, Rob has agreed to answer some questions about his team heading into the final few games of the AHL season.

Here is the interview:

Illegal Curve: With the big club (Edmonton Oilers) playing a run-and-gun style and succeeding, how much of that has filtered down to Springfield?

Rob: I don't think it really has. We play more of a chip-and-chase style down here.

Illegal Curve: Give us your impressions of Slava Truknho, who has been playing on your line recently.

Rob: Slava is awesome. He has great vision and is really strong on the puck; so all you really have to do is get open, and he finds you.

Illegal Curve: Going into this off-season, how are you going to prepare yourself for Oilers training camp?

Rob: This summer will be a lot better than last summer. That's because I will have the whole summer to train; whereas last summer I did not get to train until late July because of my knee injury.

Illegal Curve: The Falcons are in tight to make the playoffs. Do you foresee a late season push that will see you secure a spot?

Rob: We have a good young team, so I think this last push will be good for us for preparing for the post-season. Basically every game from now on will be like a playoff game because we need to win these games.

Illegal Curve: As an offensive player, who has impressed you the most out of Springfield's defensemen?

Rob: T.J. Kemp has been our best offensive defenseman this season.

Thanks, Rob.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Here are Rob's past entries to Illegal Curve:

Schremp's fourth entry.
Schremp's third entry.
Schremp's second entry.
Schremp's first entry.

Pre-Game Report

Here are some news and notes heading into tonight's games:

• Pavol Demitra (leg) is in the line up tonight for the Wild.
• Pierre-Marc Bouchard (flu) will return to the team's line up tonight.
• Jean-Sebastien Gigure (head) is out tonight for the Ducks.
• Ryan Getzlaf (shoulder) is also out for Anaheim.
• Erik Ersberg will start in between the pipes tonight for Los Angeles.
• Scott Thornton (upper-body) is out tonight for the Kings.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

ROY LETS IT GO, VANEK TAPS IT HOME!

Last week the Buffalo Sabres had an amazing comeback vs the Tampa Bay Lightning. They scored 6 goals in the third period to secure a 7 - 4 win, keeping their playoff hopes alive.

Thomas Vanek was the star of the game scoring three goals, here is his third goal of the game. In this goal Vanek casually taps the puck out of the air into the net. Usually on goals where the puck is tapped out of the air there is more a baseball bat swing but Vanek kept himself under control and was just trying to make contact. Very nice!

The fantastic play-by-play here is done by Rick Jeanneret. Rick has been providing Sabres play-by-play since 1971 and still has the same excitement and enthusiasm for the game as when he started. From watching it, you really get the sense that he is that excited about hockey.

NHL Morning Papers--Western Conference (Wednesday Edition)

Here are the Northwest Division morning papers:

• The Canucks forgot to play the second and third periods last night, and that led them to a 3-2 loss at Calgary, writes Ben Kuzma. According to veteran Trevor Linden, the Canucks took too many penalties last night.
• After yesterday's home victory over Vancouver, the Flames are now the clubhouse leaders in the Northwest Division. The Canucks blew the "worst lead in hockey" on Tuesday, so maybe some cliches are true, writes Steve Macfarlane of the Calgary Sun.
• The Oilers' defensemen are going to do their best to stop scoring on their own net. The Oilers have decided to give Mathieu Garon some time off his injured ankle and have recalled Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers.
• John-Michael Liles has turned his game around thanks to some new found stability, writes Adrian Dater.
• With the Oilers set to face-off against the Wild in St. Paul tonight, Michael Russo of the Star Tribune has some kind words about the Oilers resiliency in this morning's paper. Wild coach Jacques Lemaire believes his team's problems are currently mental.

Here are the Pacific Division morning papers:

• The question has been posed to Scott Niedermayer about returning next season and his answer did not really reveal much of anything.
• The Sharks only came to play in the third period, and that is why they lost 5-4 in overtime, writes David Pollak. With second place in the Western Conference basically secured, the Sharks will use some Eastern Conference teams as a motivating factor over the last few games.
• It should never have went to overtime, but the Coyotes will still take the two points, after they blew a 3-0 third period lead to the Sharks, writes Jim Gintonio of the Arizona Republic.
• In positive news, the Stars are expecting both Sergei Zubov and Phillipe Boucher to return to the line up in the near future. Tim Cowlishaw took some time off the Around the Horn set to tell Dallas fans that the trades made by their favorite clubs have not paid off.

**There were no L.A. Kings articles this morning** (Writer's note: Are there ever any Kings articles???? How can people be fans of this team if no one ever writes about them????)

Here are the Central Division morning papers:

• After another strong performance last night, it is fair to say that Dan Ellis has from the outhouse to the penthouse in about a week, writes John Glennon. On the injury front, it appears the Predators may be without David Legwand for the remainder of the season.
• Johan Franzen continues to power the Red Wings, as the big Swede scored the game-winner last night and his team defeated the Blues 2-1. Franzen may need to keep up this pace, as the Wings may be without Tomas Holmstrom for the start of the playoffs.
• No reporters were allowed in the Blue Jackets room after yesterday's embarrassing 3-0 loss at Nashville. It looks like Ole-Kristian Tollefsen's season may be over due to a neck injury. Here are the Jackets' projected lines for tonight's contest versus the Blackhawks.
• The Blues, already mathematically eliminated from playoff competition, still put forth a good effort in the team's 2-1 loss to Detroit last night, writes Jeremy Rutherford.
• While Jason Williams may currently be in the Denis Savard's doghouse, it does not mean the team does not want him back next season.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Email any thoughts, ideas or suggestions to illegalcurve@gmail.com

NHL Morning Papers--Eastern Conference (Wednesday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

• William Houston of the Globe & Mail tells readers about the rare occasions when broadcasters work two different games in the same day.
• The Leafs' playoff dreams are no more, writes Bruce Arthur of the National Post.
• In light of the Jonathan Roy brawl, Mark Spector of the National Post explains that our culture is still enamoured with fighting and rough play.
• Kevin Allen says the Predators need better goaltending if they want to make the playoffs.
• Ted Montgomery takes a look at a number of draft-day busts in this morning's USA Today.

Here are the Southeast Division morning papers:

• The Hurricanes would have liked to have recorded two points last night, but the one point they earned versus the Capitals is still valuable, writes Luke Decock. With Cam Ward having carried the workload for the past fifteen games, you would think the netminder would be tired, but he is not.
• Alexander Ovechkin set the franchise record for goals last night, and his team pulled out an important shootout victory, writes Tarik El-Bashir.
• Craig Custance discusses Kari Lehtonen's post-game fit with Thrashers analyst Darren Eliot.
• "I make no bones about it, I'm not crazy about [the Panthers'] organization, so I don't mind that at all," said Lightning coach John Tortorella after his team's 3-1 victory over the Panthers. Goalie Mike Smith missed last night's game with a knee injury, however, the injury is not thought to be serious.
• "Some people weren't good enough — that's the bottom line," said Panthers coach Jacques Martin after his team's difficult loss to the Lightning last night. Last night's game was the Panthers' first away from Sunrise in three weeks.

Here are the Atlantic Division morning papers:

• The Devils have now scored three goals in their last four games, after last night's 2-0 loss to the Penguins on home-ice. Andy Greene was a healthy scratch for last night's game.
• The Flyers came back and recorded an important character victory last night at MSG, writes Ed Moran. If the Flyers could only get production from all three assets of the game (offense, defense, goaltending) at the same time, they would be scary.
• The Penguins rebounded from a terrible loss at the Islanders with a playoff-clinching victory over the Devils last night.
• "I let my team down. What else is there to say? It's pretty easy to see," said Rangers agitator Sean Avery after making a bad turnover in overtime. If the Rangers are playing a seventh game on the road in the playoffs, they will most likely look back to games like last night, writes John Dellapina.

**There were no NY Islanders articles this morning**

Here are the Northeast Division morning papers:

• The Sabres somehow blew a 3-1 third period lead and were defeated by the rival Senators 6-3. A number of the Sabres veterans made some important mistakes last night, writes Mike Harrington.
• The Bruins found a way to score six goals last night in the team's most important game of the season, as they defeated the Leafs 6-2. Chuck Kobasew went down last night with an ankle injury after being struck by a Zdeno Chara shot.
• Pat Hickey of the Montreal Gazette provides readers with ten reasons for the Canadiens' unexpected success this season.
• The Senators rode a tremendous performance from Daniel Alfredsson to an important comeback victory over the Sabres last night. The Senators' problem this season has been goaltending, writes Chris Stevenson.
• After last night's loss, it is fair to say time has basically run out on the Maple Leafs. Damien Cox of the Toronto Star calls out the Leafs veterans for a terrible performance last night.

The Western Conference morning papers will be posted around 11:15 CST.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Email any thoughts, ideas or suggestions to illegalcurve@gmail.com

Tuesday Editorial: Sometimes the best moves are the ones you do not make

Often times, after the trade deadline has passed, hockey websites will compile a list of “winners” and “losers.” These listings generally involve teams that were active at the trade deadline. While I have no problem with these articles (as they are generally a good read), I always find myself wondering why other general managers, who decided not to pull the trigger, are excluded from the “winners” section. The odd time, teams are criticized for not doing enough and are, therefore, cast as “losers” post trade deadline. On the other hand, you rarely, if ever, see a team cast as a “winner” after doing hardly anything come deadline time.

We do not have to look far for an example of this phenomenon. Last season, Ducks GM Brian Burke decided to add checking forward Brad May at the trade deadline and that was it. He did not acquire a go-to scorer, or another top tier defenseman; instead, he liked his current roster and decided to add a character player such as May as a depth forward. In hindsight, this was a terrific move. Not only did Burke not mortgage the future for a quick fix, but he did not mortgage the future and still went on to win the Stanley Cup. That being said, you did not see any commentator say after last season’s trade deadline that Brian Burke was a “winner.” Though it may seem surprising, sometimes the best move is to do little, if anything, when it comes to player movement.

That brings us to the 2007/08 trade deadline. After the February 26th deadline passed, many were quick to criticize Bob Gainey for not bringing aboard another go-to scorer, and for dealing off his veteran netminder Cristobal Huet. Fans and commentators alike believed that Gainey subtracted from his roster and handcuffed his team’s chances come playoff time. While the playoffs have yet to be played, the Habs have already become one of the first teams to qualify for the big dance. Furthermore, the Habs are currently the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. Is that success attributed to a deadline acquisition like Brad Richards or Marian Hossa? I did not think so. Rather, that success should be attributed to Montreal’s both experienced and youthful roster; a roster that has not seen much change over the course of the season.

It says here that It is about time that Gainey receive some credit for not being active at the trade deadline. His trust in his young players, including but not limited to Carey Price, should be commended. Sometimes the best move is to trust your team, its chemistry and its ability to grow as the season moves along. Gainey’s work proves that you don’t always have to be active to be a “winner.”

For Illegal Curve, I’m Richard Pollock.

Pre-Game Report

Here are some roster notes heading into tonight's games:

• Kristian Huselius (healthy scratch) is out for tonight's game against Vancouver.
• Marc Savard (back) is out for tonight's game at Toronto.
• Here are the Hurricanes' projected lines for tonight's game versus Washington.
• Justin Williams (ACL) may be in the line up tonight for Carolina.
• Here is how the Stars lined up at their morning skate.
• Kris Russell (groin) will not play tonight against Nashville.
• Pascal Leclaire (head) is out for tonight's game.
• Tomas Holmstrom (groin) will be out of action for another week.
• Valtteri Filppula (groin, knee) is out tonight.
• Dominik Hasek (flu) did not fly with the team to St. Louis for tonight's game.
• Andrew Ference (leg) is out tonight for Boston's important game versus Toronto.
• Jonathan Cheechoo (head, neck) is out for tonight's game against the Coyotes.
• Patrick Rismiller (lower-body injury) will play for the Sharks tonight.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

News You Can Use Late in the Day

1. Probably the most eloquent written description of hockey you will see today, courtesy of William Faulkner and the 1950's.
2. Scott Burnside goes behind the scenes with the Flyers as they close in on a playoff spot.
3. Pat Quinn will coach Team Canada at the World Under-18's.
4. The weekly release from the USHL.
5. The new arena in Edmonton is another step closer to reality.
6. The Ottawa Senators have recalled Brian Lee.
6. Patrick Roy earns himself a 5 game suspension for the playoff melee.
7. Pierre Lebrun writes that the NHL may re-visit its rules on no-touch icing. The rule Pierre advocates for is currently in use by the USHL.
8. All Things Avs is not a Dion Phaneuf fan. Expect Pierre McGuire to rescue his monster.
9. Check out this shaving cream prank gone wrong, courtesy of Fanhouse.
10. John Buccigross picks his award winners and answer reader's mail.
11. Ken Campbell says the culture in junior hockey needs to change.
12. The weekly Hot List from the Hockey News.
13. Ken Campbell with his thoughts on no-touch icing et al.
14. The Top 10 Fighters in the NHL, Part 1.
15. Adam Portzline feels an infusion of skill and heart will help the Bluejackets.
16. Gordie Howe talks old-time hockey.
17. The Oilers have recalled Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers.
18. Some juicy NHLPA emails have finally been released. More on this from the Toronto Star.
19. A look at Patrick Marleau's resurgence in San Jose.
20. Brian Sutter has resigned as head coach of the Red Deer Rebels, to be replaced by Jesse Wallin.
21. Bob Duff talks to Adam Graves.
22. All 30 coaches compared to Star Wars characters.
23. The Lightning may allow former captain Tim Taylor to play one final game in a Bolts uniform.
24. NHL Free Agent Day will remain July 1st, despite a request by the NHL to move the day back.
25. I am a little tardy on these Easter themed links, but check out biographies on Rabbit McVeigh and Bunny Laroque.

Numbers Game - Top Goal Production over last 20 years

Alexander Ovechkin became the first player to score 60 goals in a season since Mario Lemieux scored 69 in 1995-1996. However, in an offense-starved NHL, can you argue that Ovechkin’s 60 goals is more impressive than Lemieux’s 69? Further, how does Ovechkin’s 60 compare to Hull scoring 86 in 1991 or Lemieux netting 85 goals in 1989 when the NHL average goals per game was almost 2 goals higher than it is today (7.48 vs. 5.59)?

There is no question that the game is played much differently in 2008 compared to 1989. Gone are the days when defensemen could not skate backwards, and goaltenders' pads were only for protection. With greater focus on defense, coupled with the dilution of team talent through expansion, today’s NHL boasts (not proudly) far less offensive production. While in the early 90’s, the average goals scored per game was around 7, since 1997, only once has the goals per game average been higher than 5.9 (see chart for average goals per game for each of the last 20 seasons). What may, at first glance, not seem like an appreciable difference, even a one-goal differential means a difference of 100’s of goals.

In today’s Numbers Game, I used the average goals scored per game for each season as a means of comparing goal production in each season. I argue that goal production in a given year should be measured against every other player’s production in that year. Therefore, comparing average goals scored per game provides a comparative index to measure “every other player’s” performance in that year.

Through this analysis, I derived what the equivalent goal production would be in each season. So, for example, in 2008, the average goals scored was 5.59. In 1994, when Bure also scored 60 goals, the average goals score per game was 6.49 which is 16% higher than in 2008. Therefore, Ovechkin’s 60 is the equivalent of scoring 69.6 goals in 1994, while Bure’s 60 is the equivalent of scoring 51.8 goals in 2008.

So how do Mogilny’s 76 compare to Hull’s 72 or Lemieux’s 86? Well, after conducting the analysis for each of the last 20 seasons, I have compiled a top 5 list of goal production that factors in the average goals scored per game in the year they scored them.

1. Hull – 86 goals (1991)
2. Lemieux – 85 goals (1989)
3. Lemieux – 69 goals (1996)
4. Ovechkin – 60 goals (2008)
5. Bure – 59 goal (2001)

Interestingly, Selanne’s record setting rookie campaign in 1993, where he scored 76 goals for the Winnipeg Jets ranks 7th. Hull’s 72 goals in 1990, where the average was 7.37 GPG, is 13th on the list.

Is it likely we will see a player score 80 goals in a season again? Probably not. Though I suppose if anyone could do, I would place my money on Ovechkin being that guy. But, as we have seen, scoring 60 goals in today’s NHL ranks right up there with the incredible seasons that Hull and Lemieux had in the early 90’s.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

Goal Production over last 20 years (click on image to enlarge)

NHL Morning Papers--Western Conference (Tuesday Edition)

Here are the Northwest Division morning papers:

• After last night's 5-3 victory over the Wild at Rexall place, it is fair to say that the Oilers are streaking through the quad and into the gymnasium right now. The young Oilers just cannot stop scoring, writes Dan Barnes of the Edmonton Journal. The Edmonton Sun hands out the grades for last night's game.
• The Wild were outplayed in all aspects of the game on Tuesday, writes Michael Russo of the Star Tribune. Last night's game marked the end of Pierre-Marc Bouchard's consecutive game streak.
• The Oilers were hoping for the Flames for a change, but Calgary did their provincial rivals no favors last night, as they lost 2-0 at Colorado. "They were more desperate," said Flames coach Mike Keenan after the contest.
• Jose Theodore pitched a shutout for the Avalanche in their biggest game of the season, writes Adrian Dater. Jordan Leopold is trying to prove that not every Avalanche trade with the Flames turns into a disaster, writes Terry Frei.
• If the Canucks want to defeat the Flames tonight they have to control Jarome Iginla, writes Marc Weber of the Vancouver Province.

Here are the Pacific Division morning papers:

• The Sharks may play tonight's game versus Phoenix without Jonathan Cheechoo or Patrick Rismiller.
• What's old is new again, as the Stars are hoping Mike Modano can help the offense and turn around the team's recent troubles.
• The Coyotes are hoping Radim Vrbata can break out of his sixteen game goal-less drought, writes Jim Gintonio of the Arizona Republic.
• The Ducks are expecting J.S. Giguere and Ryan Getzlaf to return from injury for Wednesday's game versus L.A.

**There were no L.A. Kings articles this morning**

Here are the Central Division morning papers:

• Some of the Blues took exception to Denis Savard's comments about the team's physical tactics over the weekend.
• Dan Ellis will get the call tonight for the Predators, as they face the Blue Jackets. It has not yet been decided if Pekka Rinne will get a chance to start in any of the Predators' last few regular season games.
• While the Red Wings will be getting Daniel Cleary back in the team's line up tonight, winger Tomas Holmstrom does not seem close to a return. Bill Dow has a feature on the legendary Gordie Howe as he closes in on his 80th birthday.
• If the Blue Jackets fail to make the playoffs, they at least want to take the Predators with them, writes Aaron Portzline. The Jackets are hoping Nikolai Zherdev can break out of his slump. Here are the Jackets' projected lines for tonight's contest.
• After practice yesterday, Denis Savard did not back down from the comments he made over the weekend, writes Chris Kuc.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

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